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1. METODE SIMULASI Pertemuan 20 Matakuliah: J1186 - Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis Tahun: 2009/2010 2.

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Presentation on theme: "1. METODE SIMULASI Pertemuan 20 Matakuliah: J1186 - Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis Tahun: 2009/2010 2."— Presentation transcript:

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2 METODE SIMULASI Pertemuan 20 Matakuliah: J Analisis Kuantitatif Bisnis Tahun: 2009/2010 2

3 Framework Simulasi Monte Carlo Simulasi dan Persediaan Simulasi dan Masalah Antrian Aplikasi Model Simulasi Pengambilan Keputusan Berdasarkan Model Simulasi Bina Nusantara University 3

4 Batasan Simulasi Monte Carlo  Apabila suatu persoalan sudah dapat diselesaikan atau dihitung jawabannya secara matematis dengan tuntas, maka hendaknya jangan menggunakan simulasi ini  Apabila sebagaian persoalan tersebut dapat diselesaikan secara analitis dengan baik, maka penyelesaiannya lebih baik dilakukan secara terpisah. Sebagian secara analitis dan sebagian lagi simulasi  Apabila mungkin dapat digunakan simulasi perbandingan Bina Nusantara University 4

5 Contoh Soal Harry’s Auto Tire sells all type of tires, but a apopular radial tire accounts for a large portion of Harrycost ’s overall sales. Recognizig that inventory costs can be quite siginificant with this product, Harry’s wishes to determine a policy for managing this inventory. To see what the demmand would like over a period of time, he wishes to simulate the daily demand for a number of days. Bina Nusantara University 5

6 Step – 1 Establishing Probability Distributions To establish a probabilty distribution for tires we assume that historical demand is a good indicator of future outcomes Often, managerial estimates based on judgment and experience are used to create a distribution. The distribution themselves can be either emperical or based on the commonly known normal, binomial, poisson or exponential patterns Bina Nusantara University 6

7 Step – 2 Building a Cummulative Probability Distribution for Each Variable Histrical Daily Demand for Radial Tires at Harry’s Auto Tire Demand for TiresFrequensy (days) Total200 Bina Nusantara University 7

8 Probability Demand Demand for TiresFrequensy (days) 010 /200 = / 200 = / 200 = / 200 = / 200 = / 200 = 0.15 Total200 Bina Nusantara University 8

9 Step – 3 Setting Random Number Intervals Cummulative Probabilties for Radial Tires Daily DemandProbabalityCummulative Probability Bina Nusantara University 9

10 Step – 4 Generating Random Numbers Daily Demand ProbabilityCummulative Probabilty Internal of Reandom Numbers to to to to to to 00 Assignment of random number interval for Harry’s Auto Tire Bina Nusantara University 10

11 Step – 5 Simulating the Experiment Bina Nusantara University 11

12 DayRandom NumberSimulated Daily Demand = total 10 day demand 3.9 average daily demand Bina Nusantara University 12

13 Expected Daily Demand Expected Daily Demand = =(Probability of i tires)x(demand of I tires) = (0.05) (0) + (0.10) (1) + (0.20) (2) + (0.30) (3) + (0.20) (4) + (0.15) (5) = 2.95 Tires Σ 5 i = 0 Bina Nusantara University 13


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