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The 1st Broadcast and Film Africa Conference Russell Southwood Balancing Act

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1 The 1st Broadcast and Film Africa Conference Russell Southwood Balancing Act

2 Prospects over the next 3 years Cycle of growth: audiences, consumer spend and advertising spend Interest from intl players: Orange, GTV, ATMT, Visabeira, Vivendi, Star TV and others Regional players: DStv, eTV, Telkom Media, Nation Media, WBS, AIT/Daar Fragmentation as devices and channels proliferate (PVRs, mobiles, PCs, etc) Liberalisation matters: jobs and skills, local production and diverse expression

3 Fragmenting media landscape Country TVRadioInternetNewspapersSMS Algeria 71.824.7935.56.9 Egypt 76.231512.70.8 Morocco 8536.814.812.33.3 Tunisia 8139273 North Africa: Most used info sources (%) Source: African Broadcast and Film Markets

4 Growth in ownership No reliable up-to-date data but… TV: Clear link to electricity supply. WB: 2002: 20% to 29%. Rwanda: 5% Earlier data: Kenya 7.9% av vs 1% in rural areas. TV still largely urban but changing…. Senegal: Dakar(83%), Togo (28%) and Rwanda (6%) Radio: widely distributed and almost universal in urban areas. E Africa: Disagreements between media owners over TV ownership levels

5 Pay TV - change of ecology Total Pay-TV subs: 2.56 m DStv: 2.1 m This year will see higher levels of competition in all mkts: GTV, Wananchi, Hi-TV, Daar, etc IP-TV - Orange Senegal: 6% of DSL subs Feeding back into local content - Africa Magic Channel and others Bidding wars for rights, particularly football Advertising: Pay TV may attract share out of proportion to its audience size

6 Made in Africa? Local content & Intl rights The local production conundrum: Most programming costs on av US$300-500 per hour Expensive end: $1- 2,000. Cost of locally produced drama by TV channel: $9,000 Less if produced independently. US$10-15,000 in-house. Between 20-80% of TV is local. With some exceptions, lack of independent production sector, low levels of post-production facilities Formats: Big Brother, Soccer Academy, etc DIY content - Nollywood, Riverwood, etc, etc Creating a cycle of local production? Economies of scale? Missing elements?

7 A missing element?

8 Digitalisation and HD Production and transmission. ITU deadline: 2015. Private sector running ahead: DStv, Metro TV, Star Africa, London Satellite Systems and other tests (RTNC- Teleconsult in DRC) Policy leaders: South Africa (2010), Kenya, Tanzania and Nigeria??(2012) CRASA HD - DStv, this year in time for World Cup 2010. AIT/Daar on Pay-TV offer.

9 Advertising - the main economic underpinning Ad spend as % of GDP (2006): Europe 0.8% Africa: Est 0.1-0.7% South Africa (0.58%) Growth of service rather than producer economy. Example: mobile operators Above av. Economic growth. Growth of MC: Kenya’s ABC1s 1% of total pop (3 m). C1s and C2s in Uganda similar amount. Broadly 2 types of market: Mass market commodities like coco and beer (urban and rural) and MC consumer goods and services (urban). Impact on media?

10 Current state of liberalisation 17+ out of 40 African countries have licensed private FTA TV channels. Many more have additional Pay-TV channels. 140+ FM stations in Uganda, 80 in Senegal. Community radio and TV (CT) Initial toes in the water were state channel JVs with private sector (Ghana, Kenya and Senegal) Wider liberalisation (East Africa) vs narrow opening (South Africa)

11 Regulating liberalisation 27 out of 40 countries: some form of regulatory body. 10 have no body at all: all decisions made by Govt. 14 have a body but powers are limited. 13 have active policy and give licences. Increased convergence (from TRASA to CRASA) In the main, broadcasting regulators made less impact than telco colleagues.

12 The end of Your Excellency TV? Public/Government obligations: local content, languages and signal coverage Heavily reliant on politicians for licence fees (where they exist) and capital costs. But largely reliant on advertising so needs audiences. Competing for ever-smaller ad cake. To get audiences it has to be trustworthy for major commercial event in programming cycle, the news Private FM radio mostly gets better audiences: Walf FM (48% listened yesterday)

13 The trust factor Station (country)Radio/TV?Very trustworthy PS or NGO leader RNTB (Burundi)Radio68%91% RTS1 (Senegal)Radio45%87% Radio TanzaniaRadio78%88% Radio Kara (Togo) Radio29%46% TVM (Mozambique) TV81%79% TVT (Tanzania)TV79%87% UTV (Uganda)TV57%84% KBC (Kenya)TV49%69% Source: African Broadcast Markets, Balancing Act and Intermedia

14 The tower of babel - languages The rise and rise of vernacular radio Local language TV content (Inspeckta) 2000+ Languages But…

15 The commercial break Free fortnightly e-letter: African Broadcast, Film and Convergence Pay-for report: African Broadcast and Film Markets Consultancy and research Contact:

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