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Asia-Pacific Pivot: Futile Campaign to Reinforce U.S. Hegemony.

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Presentation on theme: "Asia-Pacific Pivot: Futile Campaign to Reinforce U.S. Hegemony."— Presentation transcript:

1 Asia-Pacific Pivot: Futile Campaign to Reinforce U.S. Hegemony

2 Sec. Hagel & Defense Minister Onodera – April 5, 2014

3 Park, Obama.Abe in the Hague March 25, 2014

4 Chairman Xi & European Council President Rampuy – April 1, 2014

5 B-2 & B-52 Simulated Nuclear Attacks Against North Korea – March, 2013

6 Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

7 Chinese Warship Challenges Malaysian Territorial Claim

8 U.S. National Intelligence Council: Global Trends 2025 “the transfer of global wealth and economic power now under way, roughly from West to East” is “without precedent in modern history”

9 “Asia will return to its historic status, with more than half of the world’s population and half of the world’s economic output. America must be present there. Markets and economic power rest on political frameworks, and American military power provides that framework.”

10 Oil & 60% of the U.S. Navy “Obama is sending a clear message to Beijing, we are becoming less dependent on imported oil, so we enjoy ‘a stronger hand’ in international relations. You are becoming more reliant on imports, and are in the unfortunate position of having to relay on supply routes that are controlled by the US Navy”

11 John Kerry is a Forbes Wealth derived in part from opium trade J

12 Secretary of State William Seward If the United States is to replace Britain as the world’s dominant power, it must first control Asia

13 Subic Bay 1890s

14 (Charged) Class A War Criminal Prime Minister Kishi Nobusuke

15 U.S. Asia-Pacific Nuclear Blackmail 1950 Truman threatens Chinese over Chosin Reservoir, Korea Truman approves military request to attack Manchuria “Operation Big Stick” Eisenhower threatens China to force end to Korean War 1954 Secretary of State Dulles offers French three tactical nuclear weapons to break Dienbienphu siege 1958 Eisenhower orders JCS to prepare nuclear attack vs. China during Quemoy 1967 Johnson's nuclear threats against Vietnam to break siege at Khe Shan Johnson threatens nuclear attack against North Korea USS Pueblo seizure 1969 Nixon’s “November Ultimatum” against Vietnam Nixon pledges to South Vietnamese President Thieu that he will respond with nuclear attacks or bombing North Vietnam’s dikes if it violates Paris Peace Accords 1975 Sec. of Defense Schlesinger threatens N. Korea with nuclear retaliation if it attacks S. Korea 1976 Ax Incident, President Ford dispatches nuclear armed B-52 from Guam toward N. Korea 1993 Clinton threatens N. Korea Clinton again threatens N.Korea 2003 Bush dispatches 24 nuclear capable bombers to Guam during crisis with N. Korea Obama simulated B-52 & B-2 attacks against N.Korea

16 America's Pacific Century The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action. BY HILLARY CLINTON |NOVEMBER 2011NOVEMBER 2011

17 Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs “ It will be important for China to accept that the United States is going to plan an enduring, strong role in the Asia-Pacific region. But the United States does want a stronger, deeper relationship with China, and we have made that undeniably clear.” Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 9, 2013

18 Global Times - China “The U.S.-China wrestling match over the South China Sea issue has raised the stakes in deciding who the real future ruler of the planet will be.”

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22 Japanese & Chinese Warships, Taiwanese Fishing Vessels Engaged Near Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands

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24 DOD: Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China – Aircraft carrier(s) and Growing Naval Capacity – Area Denial Missile Development – Next Generation of Fighter Refueling & Transport Aircraft for power projection – Cyber Warfare Capabilities – Nuclear Weapons Modernization – Satellite information & warfare technologies

25 Japanese Prime Minister Abe Seeks to Restore Much of Pre- War Order: Reinterpret Constitution Denies Wartime Aggression Visit to Yasakuni Shrine Increasing Military Spending Denies territorial disputes exist New State Secrets Law Denies military’s role in Wartime Sexual Slavery – Apology to be Revisited Information Control - NHK

26 Robert Kaplan: The Revenge of Geography “China is a rising and still immature power, obsessed with the territorial humiliations it suffered in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. [It] is developing asymmetric and anti- access niche capabilities designed to deny the U.S. Navy easy entry into the East China Sea and other coastal waters. China is not remotely capable of directly challenging the U.S. militarily. The aim...is dissuasion…that the U.S. Navy in the future will think twice as [China’s military} expands, and three times about getting between the First Island Chain and the Chinese coast.”

27 President Obama Addresses Australian Parliament

28 Preparing for Possible War Against China – Driving Pentagon Spending F-35 - $1.5 Trillion & Aircraft Carriers Cyber Warfare, Prompt Global Strike, Space & Nuclear Weapons Modernization Air-See Battle Doctrine

29 Armitage-Nye The U.S.-Japan Alliance Anchoring Stability in Asia CHALLENGE - Will Japan Remain a “First Tier” Nation? Response to Hatoyama challenge of East Asian Community, Okinawa and “drift” of alliance Press reinterpretation of constitution – 6 th biggest military spender w/Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents Nuclear power & resource alliance Expand Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance Build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance – Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem Okinawa – Retain Futenma

30 Japan in the Arms Race

31 South Korea: “Joint vision for a global alliance and deeper trading partnership.”

32 Reinforcing Alliances and Military Cooperation Philippines Guam Singapore Thailand Vietnam Indonesia Australia Myanmar New Zealand India Afghanistan/Central Asia NATO Partnerships

33 U.S. Bases Returning to Philippines

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35 Trans Pacific Partnership A Strategic Treaty Maximizing U.S. influence as China challenges the post-war economic (dis)order Integrating Japanese, Korean & other economies and societies with the U.S. Limiting their dependence on China Linking to U.S.-E.U. Free Trade Area for “Greater West”

36 Back to the Future: World War I Rising and Declining Powers Arms Races with New Technologies Resurgent Nationalism Territorial Disputes Resource Competition Complex Alliance Arrangements Economic Integration & Competiton Wild Card Actors

37 People Aren’t Passive Opposition to U.S. Militarism

38 COMMON SECURITY ALTERNATIVES Common Security Framework New Shanghai Communique Six Party Talks Direct U.S.-North Korean Negotiations Northeast Asian Nuclear Weapons Free Zone East Asian Summit ASEAN + Budget for All

39 Solidarity & Focal Points Okinawa Anti-Bases Struggle Halt U.S.-ROK War Games & Nuclear Threats Education Jeju Anti-Base Struggle Move the Money Oppose Trans Pacific Partnership Working Group: rg

40 Working Group for Peace & Demilitarization in Asia & the Pacific

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42 Thomas Donilon, National Security Advisor 3/11/13 Four Pillars of Obama’s Engagement & Containment Strategy 1. Continue to strengthen U.S. alliances, alliance with Japan remains cornerstone 2, Deeper partnership with emerging powers: China, India, Indonesia 3. Build constructive relationships with China 4. Strengthen regional institutions

43 Layers of Conflict – legacies from the Cold War – e.g. North Korea’s fears of U.S. & Japanese gov’t created by U.S. – Continued and deepening efforts by the U.S. to reinforce its Asia-Pacific hegemony – renewed mercantile competition – including imperial ambitions – reminiscent of the age of colonialism, albeit in the contexts of neoliberal globalization – The intersection of great power competition with tensions rooted in regional history

44 U.S.-Japan Alliance – Still the Keystone Japan: World’s 6th greatest military spender, modern navy, missiles, stores of plutonium, “Shifting Further Away from Pacifism” – New York Times

45 Japan Remains the Keystone Challenge after Hatoyama challenge of East Asian Community & Okinawa: Japan a 1 st tier country? Expanding Defense Guidelines for “global” alliance Pressing reinterpretation of constitution – 6 th biggest military spender. Iraq, Afghan & pirating precedents Nuclear power & resource alliance Okinawa Effort to build U.S.-Japan-Korea trilateral alliance Problem of Japanese nationalism/Abe/history problem Tied by alliance to defend in war over Senkaku/Diaoyu’s vs, China

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48 Thomas Donilon – N’tl Sec. Advisor Four Pillars of U.S. Asia-Pacific Strategy Continue to strengthen our alliances…Our alliance with Japan remains a cornerstone… Forging deeper partnerships with emerging powers (China, India, Indonesia) Building a constructive relationship with China Strengthening regional institutions

49 Back to the Future: 1890s


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