4The Alliance Maritime Strategy Deterrence and Collective DefenceCrisis ManagementCooperative Security, Outreach and PartnershipMaritime SecuritySigned in 2011 needs to be fully implementedMaritime Security is the bedrock on which all AMS tasks are achieved.
5MarCom Roles and Responsibilities “ HQ MARCOM is responsible for maritime competency and acts as NATO's principal maritime advisor. It maintains comprehensive situational awareness throughout the maritime environment, and is ready to command a maritime heavy SJO or act as the Maritime Component (MCC) to support up to a MJO+.”
6Maritime NATO 2014Reform of Maritime Security Operations: Extension/Reform of Operation Active Endeavour and Ocean Shield: Expand beyond CT and CP; greater reliance on Associated SupportRevitalisation of NATO’s Standing Naval Forces; better training, varied missions; regional exercises and engagement; a full spectrum Task Force structure? (MCM, C4ISR, Interoperability)Explore new affiliations with existing CTFs as follow-on maritime forces (potential on-call Maritime Contingency Force)Maintaining Strategic Engagement and Situational Awareness on the SeasEnhanced maritime engagement with PartnersTraining and Exercise: making a success of CFI at SeaMaintain NATO-EU cooperation in maritime security; explore ways to deepen it. EUMSS-AMS discussion?
7Reforming Op ACTIVE ENDEAVOUR MissionArt 5 Response to 9/11 to counter the threat of maritime terrorist activities – CT in a single operational environment?Maritime Situational Awareness and engagement is key aspect - 5 partners (Russia, Morocco, Israel, Georgia, Ukraine)13 yrs old – regional relevance has waned – seen as narrow when placed alongside growing security challenges of the Med region - Mission Review debate ongoing.IntentMove to a Network Operation less reliant on military forcesRespond to regional concerns and security challenges by broadening operation but with approvals clearly defined.Ensure a Joint approach with other environments and partners.End stateMaintain Connectivity through “regional network”.Ensure presence in Mediterranean.Reinvigorate Partnerships with Med Dialogue/ MOU nations.
8Counter Piracy Operations Long history of Piracy off the Horn of AfricaInternational response to piracy in 2008Coincide with WFP tasking into SomaliaEU Operation ATALANTA launched end of 2008NATO and Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) engaged in 2009‘Big 3’ and Independent Deployers: Unity of Effort
9Incidents - 12 Month Moving Average Piracy Incident RateIncidents - 12 Month Moving AverageMilitary ContainmentIRTC MilitaryProtectionDhows in Indian Ocean PiracyMerchant Armed ProtectionPre-crisis situation restoredGoA PiracySurge9
10Mission Comparison NATO EU CMF Task Force Missions & Tasks Mandated ActivityKey IssuesNATOConduct Counter Piracy OperationsEncourage Resilience of commercial shippingSupport Counter Piracy building initiativesActive disruption of PAGsPatrolling of the IRTCBorder/Coast Line Ops to deter and disruptISR (MPA, SSK, FF, Helo, UAV)KLE/LLE Puntland focussedNATO Shipping Centre EngagementLimited Regional Capacity Building support to CP building initiatives with regional statesEUProtect WFP/AMISOM shippingDeter/Disrupt piracy and armed robbery in the AOOWhere possible arrest, detain and transfer suspected piratesContribute to the monitoring of fishing activity off the coast of SomaliaWFP & AMISOM protectionLegal/Political framework for arrest and detentionMPAsRegional Capacity Building through EUCAPNESTORMany assets but often limited flexibility due to national caveatsCMFConduct Counter Piracy Operations in the CMF battle space under a mission based mandateActively deter, disrupt and suppress pirate activityShared focus on Counter Terrorism and Patterns of LifeMaritime LogisticsMPA (sortie by sortie)Flexible Force allocation between CTFs 150 & 151Loose Force StructureNo Regional Capacity BldgNo common ROEFewer assets for CP as opposed to CT tasking
11Reforming Op OCEAN SHIELD MissionCoordinate NATO’s contribution with the International community – CMF, EUNAVFOR, Independent deployers via SHADEIncrease regional maritime security capacity within meansMandate now extended to end of 2016IntentThorough overhaul of OPLAN now underwayBroaden Regional Engagement within a Focused Presence approachDesired EffectIndian Ocean crucial area to the Alliance. Maintains forward presence in an unstable areaLess fixation with low end operations – but able to respond should piracy re-emergeShow NATO relevance to the region and to the Alliance
12Impact of the Ukraine Crisis? Deep change in NATO-Russian relations (or reset to 1979); partnership activity stopped.Renewed emphasis on indivisible Alliance security - reassurance of Eastern European allies; reassertion of Alliance capabilities and resolve.Closer defence and security cooperation with Ukraine.The Land has bounded back as a critical conflict domain. (Mali, CAR, now Ukraine).Sharper edge to the ‘from Deployed to Prepared NATO’ idea.Likely to inform all aspects of the Summit, but main outlines will survive
13Maritime Assurance Measures Immediate Assurance post-Ukraine CrisisBaltic Presence – SNMCMG1 activation.Mediterranean Focus is priority for SNMGs.Black Sea exercise programme will be maintained.OOS to be maintained, but not with SNMGsAdditional forces identified for groupsFollow-on MeasuresPermanent Baltic and Mediterranean presence – more Exercises. Black Sea presence as Council decides.SNF Review – expand the size and capabilities of the groups to IRF standard.Back up deployments with effective STRATCOM.Longer-term ConsiderationsSACEUR Military Strategic posture review: NCS/NFS, Response Forces, Contingency Planning, etc.Impact of Ukraine on the Alliance Maritime Strategy
14Revitalising NATO’s Naval Forces 4 Standing Naval Groups represent majority of NATO’s IRF2 Mine Countermeasures Groups, 2 Naval GroupsSNF Challenges47 year old design – suffered from capability contraction, force flow fatigue leading - excessive demand on too small a force.Growing disconnect between tasking: Operations vs Contingency vs Training: What is the right balance?Fit for 21st Century NRF? Littoral challenges v blue-water posture.Reforms being considered:Inject broader capabilities within all groupsReform operationsAdjust schedule, more exercises, inject variety;Champion affiliations with national task groups as an on-call contingency force.Fewer exercises – greater mass – concentrate effort.
15The Littoral 2045: Crisis Response, HA/DR Global population is expected to grow from 7.2Bn to 8.3 – 10.9Bn70% of that growth will be in the poorest 24 countries70% Urban, most on the coast, much in shanty-town conditionsUrbanisation now at 1.3m / week280 mega-cities with over 20m inhabitantsSea-levels rise by 0.3 – 0.4mAlmost all have access to internet by 2030Maritime Zone