1. Agriculture as engine of growth for transforming in Sub-Saharan Africa Dr. Freddie Kwesiga Division Manager, West & Central Africa African Development Bank (f.kwesiga@afdb.org) Presentation to the Earth Institute Global Classroom

2. Outline of presentation Background: the role of the agricultural sector in the development of Sub-Saharan Africa A systemic approach to transforming African agriculture From islands of success to continental impact: Scaling up and out through strengthening innovation capacity

3. The main Challenge for Sub Saharan Africa: Poverty! Source: World Bank 2004 Approximately 180m Africans live on less than US$1 each day Livelihoods are mainly based on exploitation of natural resources— principally agriculture.

4. SSA and the MDGs Source: World Bank, 2005 Sub-Saharan Africa may miss the 2015 target for MDG 1 if business as usual approach maintained Agriculture is key in reversing this trend, we mst not loose focus on this sector. MDG Targets

5. Where are the poor and the hungry? Mainly in rural areas and reliant on rain- fed, subsistence agriculture Unable to grow or buy enough food to meet their dietary requirements Highly vulnerable to risks beyond their control

6. Importance of agriculture in economic growth Agriculture along with education and health and infrastructure were top agenda at the dawn of independence for most SSA 50 years ago Self reliance in food production was key Agriculture remains the main source of livelihood for the majority of Africans, providing:  35% of GDP  70% of employment  40% of exports Today, low agricultural productivity and degradation of natural resources are accelerating and reinforcing poverty and food insecurity.

7. Diversity of farming systems in Sub-Saharan Africa Given this diversity, recommendations are indicative, not prescriptive – not “one-size-fits-all,” but a menu of choices from which to develop integrated interventions

8. Agricultural production system Characteristics: Traditional, subsistence oriented – agriculture as a way of life not 4 market. Largely rainfed, low soil fertility, low input use, little mechanization, Complex farming systems – mixed crops, livestock In remote villages, far away from research and extension, based on farmer knowledge. Women perform the majority of agricultural tasks, with limited access to extension, credit value addition, market) Out-migration of men and youth from to urban areas Population growth  pressure on land & natural resource base HIV/AIDS, malaria & other pandemic diseases impacts labor productivity Low input, low output.

9. Vicious circle underlying decline in African farmers’ livelihoods Unfavourable economic returns to agricultural production Unsustainable agricultural practices

10. Vicious circle underlying decline in African farmers’ livelihoods The vicious circle must be broken! HOW?

11. Cereal Yield growth among low-income countries (Sachs, 2005) Countries that began with low yields in 1980 tended to experience economic decline between 1980 and 2000

12. Realities of African Agriculture Low Agricultural productivity, reflects the failure to find and adopt more productive farming technologies and markets. New technologies & markets helped farmers in Asia and Latin America during the green revolution. Farmers in Africa did not participate in this technological upgrade. The inability of African farmers to access more productive technologies and markets means more destructive methods unable to boost production in pace with population growth. One example is shortening fallow periods, a practice that mines soils and can eventually lead to actual decline in crop yields per hectare.

13. need for systematic diagnosis… Fast growing population Long dry season, droughts Deforestation due to expansion of agriculture Shortened fallow periods Lack of technologies & access to inputs Low soil fertility Poor quantity quality fodder Overgrazing Labour constraints Poverty and Food insecurity Low productivity Poor markets and policies Weed infestation Causal Flow Diagram on household poverty & food security problems in Eastern Zambia (1988)

14. Realities of ag sector in SSA Lack of access to technology & inputs Inadequate infrastructure and land tenure arrangements Weak links to markets, lack of market information & incentives Weak private sector (entrepreneurs exist, build on these) Underinvestment in Health, education and research; ineffective R&D models; weak and unaccountable institutions Harmful policies (SAP) Effects of globalization

15. Increasing land productivity through agroforestry Grass fallow Improved yields NPK Fertilizer Improved fallow continuous cropping Miombo Agro- Forestry systems Clearing Poor yields

16. Bundle AF with other options Farmers need options, Identify entry points Inorganic Fertilizers Water

17. Two routes to ag production growth – area vs. yield growth (index, 1961=100) Source: Henao & Baanante (IFDC). African Fertilizer Summit, Abuja, June 2006. http://www.africafertilizersummit.org/Background_Papers/03%20Henao%20and%20Baanante--Agricultural%20Production.pdf Ag production increases in South Asia due to yield (productivity) increases (  3.6% p.a.); very slight increase in area Agricultural production growth in Sub- Saharan Africa, 1961-2001: increase due largely to area growth (doubled), only  1% annual increase in yields

18. Cost of Fertilizer in Europe (FOB): US$ 90 (Sanchez, 2001)

19. Extending the area under sustainable land management and reliable water availability Agricultural research, technology uptake and adoption Increasing food supply, reducing hunger, and strengthening national and regional food security Improving infrastructure and trade-related capacities for market access Reversing the decline of agriculture requires implementation of CAADP systemicpartnership and institutional mechanisms Interventions should be systemic  in turn calls for partnership and institutional mechanisms for working in this model

20. What are the relevant sub-systems that interact in SSA agriculture? Global political- economic system Health and education systems Natural resources/ biophysical environmt Infra- structure Private sector for value chain Research and University Knowledge systems Policies and markets

21. Building Infrastructure is key to the success of agric sector.. Urgent need to end the drudgery of collecting water & fuel  women’s burden Urgent need for more and better: Transportation infrastructure: roads, waterways ports, railways, research, education, health… Investments in water systems: dams, large and small-scale irrigation systems, wells and most of all; water harvesting and storage at farm level Provision of fuel and energy ( e.g solar powered) in rural areas Communications (use of IT is key, see cellphones) Investments in agro-industries (processing of agricultural products)

22. Agriculture in SSA could gain more ground if …. Challenges Responses Farmers produce what market requires (product mix, quality) Unavailability of quality seed Very low use of fertilizer (Africa averages 12kg/ha, vs. 150Kg/ha in India and > 400kg/ha in Japan) Lack of (timely) credit High post-harvest losses Little processing of production (value-adding activities) in rural areas High costs of transport to urban markets Improve access to market informa- tion, quality standards, etc. (e.g., market info delivery via cell phone) Partnerships emerging, (AATF, CGIAR, PVT sector) Increase availability of fertilizer, engage private sector (stockists) in distribution(AFFM at AfDB, GR)  microfinance, esp. for women Increase investments in post- harvest storage and processing activities (machinery, training), incl.  role for private sector  roads, farmer transportation cooperatives,  regional markets

23. African agriculture has registered some successes Varietal improvements (NERICA rice mosaic resistant cassava, IR maize, etc.) Increased use of inputs (soil fertility, fodder, pest management) Improved water capture and use (irrigation) Infrastructure (roads, dams) to support the above However, these have not had broad impact due to: Poor linkages between production, processing, trade/marketing and consumption( value chain) Inadequate human and financial resources Weak institutional frameworks, including lack of partnerships for addressing these issues Local variety Experimental

24. Signs of hope: Greater input availability Increasing the availability of inputs recognized as essential to jump-starting agricultural growth, e.g.:  African Fertilizer Summit (Abuja 2006)  AGRA initiative (Gates & Rockefeller Foundation Alliance for a Green Revolution for Africa)  Millennium Villages initiative, Malawi story  Growth of private sector seed companies  AfDB African Water and Fertilizer Facilities  Initiatives supporting micro-credit, micro- financing ( drawing from Grameen Bank)  AfDB, World Bank investments in infrastructure (roads, irrigation systems, markets)  CAADP agenda

25. Signs of hope: IT, private sector Emergence of IT (internet, cell phones) breaks down knowledge and information barriers (but more is needed to reduce costs and improve available information) Gradual increases in private sector involvement in African agriculture (recognize and empower Private sector from community perspective such as shopkeepers, transporters in value chains need to become more profitable, better linkages to markets for this to take off)

26. Successful models as example of innovation system initiative EXAMPLE 1: outgrower schemes are transferring knowledge and income sources to farmers in Mozambique and many other African countries.

27. innovation systems EXAMPLE 2: Agroforestry/INRM to improve livelihoods o.f Kenyan Milk producers for the Nairobi Market

28. innovation systems EXAMPLE 3: Organizing women farmers to improve access to inputs and markets in Malawi and Western Kenya. Fertilizers sold in small affordable packets ( like salt, sugar, paraffin etc)

29. Scaling up & out of successful innovations Documenting success stories and farmer innovations Understanding farmer practices of technology adaptation Perfecting use of extrapo- lation domains (GIS) Strengthening knowledge sharing processes Fostering enabling environments (policies, market incentives, etc.) Source: Douthwaite (2003), IIRR (2000)

30. Conclusions (1) Our goal must be to make African agricultural at profitable, and pleasurable – to attract the youth, create jobs. This calls for renewed investment and focus on Africa’s rural poor “Putting farmers first” – empower farmers to drive the development process Reaching Africa’s women farmers with inputs & technology, and improving their education, health, economic returns and empowerment, are key drivers to the development process Major investments in sustainable soil and water management are required, especially in light of climate change

31. Conclusions (2) More value-adding activities need to be created at the village level – to generate more jobs and stem out-migration of Africa’s rural youth. Partnerships outside agric sector are key Slowing population growth and improving the skills & health and education of rural people are essential for sustainable improvements in rural livelihoods Interventions must be grounded in a systems approach and long term planning Good science and good policy, good governance must underlie all our efforts.

32. Thank you for your attention