Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Paper authors: Marina BRAVI, Stefano.

Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Paper authors: Marina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO Polytechnic of Turin Speaker:Stefano ROSSI Polytechnic of Turin Theme M: REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna - Austria Vienna University of Economics and Business Research Institute for Spatial and Real Estate Economics European Real Estate Society 20th Annual Conference

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin DEVELOPMENT INDUSTRYSPACE MARKET ASSET MARKET SUPPLY (Landlords) DEMAND (Tenants) Rent and occupancy CASH FLOW PROPERTY MARKET VALUE EXPECTED RETURN DEMAND (Investors buying) SUPPLY (Owners selling) CONSTRUCTION COSTS INCLUDING LAND Is development profitable? REAL ESTATE DEVELOPMENT PROJECT LOCAL AND NATIONAL ECONOMIES YES FORECAST FUTURE Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios The real estate system

1 Chapter The development phase is quite risky for two reasons: it is not known for certain what occupancy will be achieved within what period of time and at what rental rate, or at what price the building will be sold; development projects inherently contain ‘operational leverage’; even if the project is financed entirely with equity and even if it is entirely pre-leased, because they have high fixed or committed costs relative to potentially variable revenues. Investments in stabilized properties have no operational leverage, because the investments cost occurs entirely al time 0. European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Development projects

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Selling Construction costs Cost of land acquisition Time Benefits Sacrifices Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Development projects

1 Chapter Development project phases with relative expected return European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Construction phase Stabilized operation Expected return E 0 [r] Time Land purchase Development completion Development projects

1 Chapter So: what determines land values? what causes land prices to move up and down? European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Volatility in land prices We can simulate thousands of possible project scenarios by means of the Monte Carlo analysis to compare the risk profile of a fully operational property and a development project (to build an essentially identical property), calculating their Present Values. Each project scenario is created by means of a Normal probability distribution for the key input, reversion value, while construction cost is assumed to be deterministic.

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios If we analize the probability distribution of the PV results, we see that, although the magnitude of change is the same… Volatility in land prices

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios … the impact on expected return is significantly different, expecially in terms of standard deviation! Volatility in land prices

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios So, changes in expected net operating income and/or reversion value and their growth rates are the basic causes of volatility in land prices. Development project Stabilized property Risk free Volatility in land prices

1 Chapter European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios If this relationship does not hold, then there are ‘supernormal’ (disequilibrium) profits (expected returns) to be made somewhere and, correspondingly, ‘subnormal’ profits elsewhere, accross the markets for land, stabilized property and bonds. Development project Stabilized property Risk free Volatility in land prices

1 The most important and commonly used metric in the decision- making process is the net present value (NPV) which is the difference between the present value of the expected payoff and the project investment. If the project NPV is significantly positive or significantly negative, even with a probabilistic payoff, the decision to invest or not to invest would be obvious if the whole range of the expected payoff values is either far higher or far lower. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Inflexibility of DCFA Chapter

1 Expected payoff > Investment cost: the project should be undertaken Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin A Inflexibility of DCFA Chapter

1 Expected payoff < Investment cost: the project should be rejected Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin B Inflexibility of DCFA Chapter

1 But sometimes there is a ‘gray zone’ where the investment values may be in the range of the expected payoff values, making the decision somewhat difficult. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin C Inflexibility of DCFA Chapter

1 If flexibility can be embedded in real property in a way which allows the investment to respond accordingly to favorable conditions in the future, or to avoid potentially negative outcomes, the asset may inherently be more valuable. But this flexibility is not accounted for in the DCF approach, which is effective at the ‘extremes’. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Optionality of land Chapter

2 The economic definition of ‘land value’ is based on nothing more or less than the fundamental capability that land ownership gives to the landowner : the right without obligation to develop (or redevelop) the property upon payment of the construction cost. Built property is underlying asset and construction cost is exercise price. In essence, all real estate development projects are real options, though in some simple cases the optionality may be fairly trivial and can be safely ignored. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Optionality of land Chapter

2 A brownfield site is a piece of land which was previously used for industrial or commercial purposes. Such plots of land may be contaminated by concentrations of hazardous wastes or pollution, and have the potential to be reused once cleaned up. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Brownfields Chapter

2 In Italy, the law states that if the parties responsible for the contamination do not provide directly, the procedures and actions referring to the clean up of the brownfields will be carried out ex officio by the municipality with territorial jurisdiction and, if this fails, by the Region (L.D. n° 152 of April, 14 th 2006). In this case, the public actor that replaces the private one for the implementation of remediation could claim directly against the reclaimed area. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Brownfields Chapter

2 Investment decisions concerning the redevelopment of these sites, in short, are affected by two critical variables: remediation costs ; many contaminated brownfields sites sit unused for decades because the cost of cleaning them to safe standards is more than the land would be worth after redevelopment; market value of the area after the environmental recovery has been completed. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Brownfields Chapter

2 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin The growth of the weight of the remediation costs, compared to the estimated land value, will not render the project feasible. Risk profile of brownfields Chapter

2 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Moreover, in the event that the remediation costs are almost equal to the market value of the reclaimed land, the DCFA becomes an inflexible tool, wherein the feasibility is difficult to test. Risk profile of brownfields Chapter

2 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin In addition, high volatility in expected rents and/or expected return for stabilized properties makes things even worse. Risk profile of brownfields Chapter

2 If and when an upswing occurs in the property market, the owner can choose to develop the property making profits, otherwise not, thereby avoiding potential losses. It is therefore necessary to compute the value of the deferral option, which is associated with the decision to clean-up the land, given that the remediation cost is the exercise price and the value of the underlying asset corresponds to the value of the land as not reclaimed. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin The value of deferral option Chapter

2 The basic assumption is that the land market value at the end of the clean-up process is equal to the market value of a land that does not require remediation. The incurred investment by the landowner has the purpose of increasing the land market value, in order to make it competitive in comparison with other properties that have the same characteristics but which are not polluted. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Black-Scholes model Chapter

2 The Black-Scholes formula computes the value of the deferral option: C = N(d 1 )S 0 – N(d 2 )X exp(-rT) where: C is the value of the deferral option; S 0 is the present value of the underlying asset (land value as not reclaimed); X is the exercise price (remediation costs); r is the risk-free interest rate; T is the expiration time of the option; d 1 = [ln( S 0 /X) + (r + σ 2 /2)T]σT 1/2 ; d 2 = d 1 - σT 1/2 ; N(d 1 ) and N(d 2 ) the value of the normal standardized distribution of d 1 and d 2. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Black-Scholes model Chapter

2 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Black-Scholes model Chapter - C = N(d 1 )S 0 N(d 2 )X exp(-rT) Probability distribution of PV of revenues Probability distribution of PV of costs

2 When the investment decision may be deferred, the possibility of deferral gives rise to two additional sources of value: 1. we would always rather pay later than sooner, all else being equal, because we can earn the time value of money on the deferred expenditure; how much money is that? PV( X ) = X /(1+ r f ) t So, if NPV can be expressed as ‘NPV = S – X’, we can rewrite it using PV( X ) instead of X: ‘modified’ NPV = S - PV( X ) ≥ NPV Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Time value of money Chapter

2 Instead of expressing modified NPV as the difference between S and PV( X ), let’s create a new metric: NPVq = S/PV( X ) Where ‘q’ reminds us that we are expressing the relationship between S and PV(X) as a quotient. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Time value of money Chapter

2 2.while we are waiting, the world can change; specifically, the value of the land we intend acquire (and its expected return) may change and affect our investment decision for the better. That possibility is very important, but naturally it is more difficult to quantify because we are not actually sure that land value will change or, if it does, what the future value will be. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Volatility Chapter

2 We are talking about volatility: it can be estimated on the basis of the risk (standard deviation) associated with the expected return of the development project Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Volatility Chapter

2 Together, our two new call-option metrics, NPVq and σt 1/2, contain all the information needed to value the investment as a European call option using the Black-Scholes model locating opportunities in two- dimensional space. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin New call-option metrics Chapter

2 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Locating the option value Lower values Higher values NPVq σT 1/2 Call option value increases in these directions 1,00 We can locate investment opportunities, the option value, in this two-dimensional space… Chapter

2 …and a stylized mapping of projects into call-option space: Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Locating the option value Out of the money Lower values Higher values In the money NPVq σT 1/2 1,00 Exercise nowExercise never NPV > 0 and NPVq > 1. Wait if possible. Otherwise, exercise early. NPV < 0, but very promising because NPVq > 1 and volatility is high. NPV < 0 and NPVq < 1. Less promising, but high volatility. These projects require active development. NPV < 0, NPVq < 1, and Volatility is low. Doubtful prospects. Chapter

2 Suppose: S 0 = € 100 X = € 105 t = 1 year; r f = 5%; σ = 50% per year Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Example Black-Scholes value of a European call option, expressed as a percentage of underlying asset value: Chapter

2 Suppose: S 0 = € 100 X = € 105 t = 1 year; r f = 5%; σ = 50% per year NPVq = € 100/[€ 105/(1,05)] = 1,00 and σt 1/2 = 0,50 The table gives a value of 19,79% So the project has a value of: 19,79% x € 100 = € 19,79 € 19,79 > € (100 – 105) = - € 5 Option premium = € 19,79 – (- € 5) = € 24,79 Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Example Chapter

3 An urban contaminated plot of land has an area of approximately 14.177 sqm. of territorial surface, in which was built one of the Media Villages that were planned for the XX th Turin 2006 Olympic Winter Games, included within the Urban Renewal Programme, Sub District 3 – ‘Michelin North’. In order to estabilish the new functions, some demolition and land remediation actions will be required: the cost of these works was estimated to be € 516.000 and the total land value was € 10.845.615 worth. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

3 As is evident, the weight of the clean-up costs on the total value is negligible. If the effect of the remediation costs were not so marginal, other scenarios would need to be considered; the table shows some types of remediation and their costs, consistent with this scenario. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

3 The estimated costs in relation to the e) hypothesis are not compatible with the project, because they significantly exceed the land value. The landowner would not be willing to sell the reclaimed area to the developer for a price lower than the remediation costs. For other types of remediation, the costs are however compatible with the market value of the land. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

3 Assuming that there is a deadline within one year to decide whether or not to perform the remediation, the value of the contaminated land is equal to the difference between the value of a plot of land that does not require remediation and the clean-up costs. The table shows the input data for the calculation of the option value for both the landowner and the developer. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

3 It is possible to compute the value of the deferral option by using the Black-Scholes formula. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter When remediation costs exceed the value of the reclaimed land, the developer will not be willing to buy, but he could still choose to buy the contaminated land if he decides to defer the clean-up over time at a price equal to the value of the deferral option

3 For an increase in remediation costs, the deferral option adds value for the real estate developer. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

3 Where the possibility of development, as imposed by the planning tools, is not enough to render the recovery feasible from a financial perspective, the public actor could decide to take action directly on the remediation costs. Since remediation is preliminary to the real transformation of the area, the public action supporting the environmental recovery costs could take two forms: by means of a discount on the infrastructure costs of a portion of the remediation costs incurred by the private sector; by means of a direct financing of part of the remediation costs. Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios European Real Estate SocietyPaper authors: 20th Annual Conference - 3rd-6th July 2013 - Vienna – AustriaMarina BRAVI, Stefano ROSSI, Antonio TALARICO - Polytechnic of Turin Case study Chapter

Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Paper authors: Marina BRAVI, Stefano.

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Methodology for the Evaluation of Real Options in Real Estate Development in Areas Characterized by Uncertain Scenarios Paper authors: Marina BRAVI, Stefano.

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