Flip-flop Waffle Flakey Consider new information Change your own mind Is it simply pandering?
It is consistent if it is at least possible for it to be true e.g. “Read my lips, no new taxes”
If it simply cannot be true, then the claim is inconsistent. e.g. It was raining on my window today, but not raining raining.
Remember that because a person has been inconsistent, it does not speak to their position on matters. We like to believe that if a person is inconsistent, so are their positions on important things. This is a fallacy. We must judge on the merits of their position. Otherwise it is the argumentum ad hominem. Judging the argument “by the man” not the actual argument.
One independent event cannot affect the outcome of another. As an example, since a die (dice) has 6 sides, you would multiply 1/6 times 1/6 to get a 1 in 36 chance of getting 2 snake eye rolls. Not 2 in 6 as some assume.
A fallacy wherein the speaker doesn’t realize that independent events are truly independent e.g. Separate coin flips have nothing to do with each other.
A fallacy wherein we overlook something in a probability that everything else being equal, is it’s prior probability. e.g. Not taking into account all the things that can change our probabilities outcome.
This is a fallacy in calculating the probability of something occurring. Taking a seemingly large sample that in reality isn’t that large and using bad math to come to completely wrong conclusions.
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