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Kimberly Wyatt – Critical Reasoning

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Flip-flop Waffle Flakey Consider new information Change your own mind Is it simply pandering?

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It is consistent if it is at least possible for it to be true e.g. “Read my lips, no new taxes”

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If it simply cannot be true, then the claim is inconsistent. e.g. It was raining on my window today, but not raining raining.

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Remember that because a person has been inconsistent, it does not speak to their position on matters. We like to believe that if a person is inconsistent, so are their positions on important things. This is a fallacy. We must judge on the merits of their position. Otherwise it is the argumentum ad hominem. Judging the argument “by the man” not the actual argument.

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One independent event cannot affect the outcome of another. As an example, since a die (dice) has 6 sides, you would multiply 1/6 times 1/6 to get a 1 in 36 chance of getting 2 snake eye rolls. Not 2 in 6 as some assume.

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A fallacy wherein the speaker doesn’t realize that independent events are truly independent e.g. Separate coin flips have nothing to do with each other.

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A fallacy wherein we overlook something in a probability that everything else being equal, is it’s prior probability. e.g. Not taking into account all the things that can change our probabilities outcome.

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This is a fallacy in calculating the probability of something occurring. Taking a seemingly large sample that in reality isn’t that large and using bad math to come to completely wrong conclusions.

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1 Copyright M.R.K. Krishna Rao 2003 Chapter 5. Discrete Probability Everything you have learned about counting constitutes the basis for computing the.

1 Copyright M.R.K. Krishna Rao 2003 Chapter 5. Discrete Probability Everything you have learned about counting constitutes the basis for computing the.

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