Presentation on theme: "St. Louis Metropolitan Police Homicide predictions A-Team Dan Burgdorf Spencer Malaney Richard Manierski Ryan Webster Daniel Anthony."— Presentation transcript:
St. Louis Metropolitan Police Homicide predictions A-Team Dan Burgdorf Spencer Malaney Richard Manierski Ryan Webster Daniel Anthony
Definition: Homicide (Latin homicidium, homo human being + caedere to cut, kill) refers to the act of a human killing a human being.Latinhuman Our Definition(s): The unlawful killing of one human being by the work of another individual Any death being classified as a homicide by the St. Louis Metropolitan Police Department is an official homicide in the eyes of Group A (In short, we are not questioning the fine judgment of the STLMPD)
Study of the decline in homicides during the 1990’s Factors that Don’t affect Homicide - Daniel Factors that DID affect Homicide(s) - Ryan “Bodies Move” - Rick Urban Development - Spencer Website and Predictions – Spencer Conclusion - Dan
1. Strong Economy in the 1990’s 2. Changing demographics 3. Better Policing Strategies 4. Gun Control laws 5. Concealed weapons law 6. Increase use of Capital Punishment
Improvements in labor market opportunities make crime relatively less attractive Relevant for burglary, robbery and theft, but less important for homicides, assaults and rapes Unemployment and property crime
Baby boomers Older generations are less likely to commit crimes Younger generations are more prone to commit violent crimes Eventually both are going to offset each other in a large picture
Community policing strategies Media attention and use of technology in identifying crime ‘hot spots’ No known effective tool to measure strategies
Little evidence Gun buy-back programs Typical programs like this yields very few guns Very few guns used in crimes were licensed
Luby’s massacre Studies showing a relationship between concealed weapons and the homicide rate are based on Empirical data that was already on the decline before the enactment of the law.
Even after introducing death penalties, homicide rate did not decline a lot The decline rate was 1/25 So it was not really effective.
Things we will need to look at further to provide more accurate predictions in 2010: Change in demographics Age of inhabitants Race of inhabitants Change in Police Deployment Budget cuts or gets increased Low recruitment or High recruitment Change in rate of Incarceration Prisons become full OR new prisons open up Judges opt for probation OR opt for tougher sentencing Change in Drug Market or drug supply Major busts in supply chain Afghanistan and Opium trade
Foreclosures impact on violent crimes in Charlotte, NC.
Wal-Mart Violent crimes were 6 times more likely to occur in Wal-Mart parking lots than at a Target parking lots in 2004. (sample done by WalmartCrimeReport.com) Not enough data to make conclusions
EXAMPLE: DISTRICT X 300 HOMICIDES 52 DETERMINED 248 “BODIES FOUND” FEW FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE DISTRICT Y 25 HOMICIDES 20 DETERMINED 5 “BODIES FOUND” MANY FACTORS PREDICTING HOMICIDE