Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Prepared By: Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Prepared By: Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc."— Presentation transcript:

1 Prepared By: Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc.

2 Agenda  How Trade Impacts Real Estate  Manufacturing Trends  Logistics and Transportation Trends  Panama Canal Update  Shifts in E-commerce Fulfillment Centers  Impact on Industrial Real Estate Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

3 How Trade Impacts Real Estate Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

4 SLIDE FROM 2010, SHOWING THE CONNECTION BETWEEN GDP AND TRADE Notice 2x to 3x Trade Volumes to GDP relationship exists “+ or –” Real Exports to U.S. in TEUs

5 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

6 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

7 2013 Total TEU Growth YTD Source: Individual Port Websites Port of Entry 2013 YTD TEU Volume % Growth over Same Period TEU Volume LA/LB (Dec)14,599, %14,123,376 NY/NJ (Oct)4,611, %5,529,211 Savannah (Nov)2,798, %2,966,221 Oakland (Dec)2,346,5280.1%2,344,424 Houston (Nov)1,799,6692.1%1,922,479 Hampton Roads (Dec)2,223,5325.3%2,105,887 Seattle (Nov)1,470, %1,869,492 Tacoma (Nov)1,717, %1,711,133 Charleston (Nov)1,477,2646.2%1,514,585 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

8 Panama Canal  Canal operating at capacity today  Limited ship-sizes that can operate, 110 feet wide max, going to 185 ft wide!  $1.7 Billion cost override and vendor dispute  G6 and G3 Carriers have already rerouted all they will to Suez – New P3 alliance will shift more freight to Suez  Completion date moving back into mid-late 2015  Main “shift” will not be in West Coast, vs. East Coast, Asia-traffic market share, but in 1 ship carrying 12,000 TEUs vs. 3 ships carrying 3500 TEUs each! Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

9

10

11 Brand New Panama Canal Locks

12 Panama Canal Bottom Line  BALANCE – In Asia Import Market Share after 2014 will be the answer. Approx. 52%-48% today, 50%-50% after  Could be a non-event as many Carriers have already re-positioned routes through the Suez, to utilize larger ships for East Coast and Europe.  Could be some re-routing of pricing and trans-shipping with Panama as Hub, vs. Miami today.  COSTS ARE WHAT MOVES SHIPPERS!  PSThe China-Nicaragua canal may be smoke and mirrors!? Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

13 Shanghai to North American Ports: Slow Steaming Effects – 2000 & 2014 Source: ShipmentLink.com (Evergreen) Sailing Schedules From China, it takes about 2 weeks to bring cargo to the west coast and about 4 weeks to bring it in on the east coast. (2000)

14 Source: ShipmentLink.com (Evergreen) Sailing Schedules From China, it takes about 2 weeks to bring cargo to the west coast and about 4 weeks to bring it in on the east coast. (2000) $1,866 $3,217 $3,125 Shanghai to North American Ports: Slow Steaming Effects –2000 & 2014 Pricing as of January 10, 2014 $1,200 $800

15 Manufacturing Grows in the USA  New US-Domestic manufacturing that is made competitive by new resources  Natural Gas-new technologies unlocking new sources of product which provides lower cost feed stocks for plastics-PE and PP specifically but PVC as well, now US is competitive with the worlds producer  New production capacity announced in North America, 9 billion ponds of new production through 2018, some will be on line as early as 2015  Not all about “re-shoring” but about new industry and manufacturing Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

16 U.S. Competitive Position  From 2005 to 2012, US went from being the one of the highest cost producers of ethylene (a plastics building block) to one of the lowest cost globally  $7 billion in new investments in production of thermoplastics resin capacity, these investments will add 25% capacity in production  40% of US’s increasing production will have to be exported, historically 20% was exported  Shipping these volumes will require new export gateways, new ports and new export lanes and NEW REAL ESTATE!! Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

17 Mexico Exports to US have Outperformed Asia Since Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

18 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

19 Mexico vs. China Wage Rate 19 SOURCE: International Labour Organization, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Dollar Since 2003, wages in Mexico have risen only 25 percent compared to 218 percent in China. Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting WSJ

20 New Types of Industrial Real Estate: Export Centers & E-Commerce  Export Centers match up empty-import Containers with Export Loads.  Where? At Inland Ports! (US Rail- Intermodal Terminals near large population centers)  E-commerce fulfillment center (like DC’s) are going to be different, larger, more diverse and in different markets. Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

21 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

22 Export Center Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

23 E-Commerce Fulfillment

24 2013 E-Commerce Review Online spending grew 22% over 2012, for the five days following Thanksgiving to Cyber Monday Some retailers saw revenue on Thanksgiving Day increase 132% over 2012 Black Friday saw 74% in revenue per store Total online transactions up 46% over 2012 holiday season Cyber Monday consumers spent $2.29 billion, the biggest sales day in E-commerce history Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

25 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

26 Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

27 Growth in E-Commerce Platforms More Mobile Devices! Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

28 The Accelerated Growth of the Global Internet Population and E-Commerce Outside the U.S. will Drive U.S. Retailers to Engage in Cross-Border Internet Trade Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

29 E-Commerce Key Criteria for Site Selectors  Avoidance of Nexus Tax (may get mitigated, but not yet….)  Proximity to major markets  Inexpensive land  UPS and FedEx Truck Hubs nearby  Ample seasonal/surge labor pool  Reasonable proximity/access to interstates  Local incentives: Tax breaks—FTZ!! Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

30 Typical Multi/Omni Channel Network StoreNet Live Retail Systems Integration Software Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

31 Carters.com 1 Million Sq.Ft. FTZ Building  Size:1,061,237 SF  Parking:1,000 auto spaces 400 trailer spaces  Highway Access: I-85 exposure Cross-Dock 32” Clear Height 175’ Truck courts 1,000 Auto spots!

32 Amazon TN Site

33 U.S. Locations

34 What Does All of this Mean to the Logistics or RE Industry  Supply chains will continue to be complex  New manufacturing in North America is real! Get in front of it in your locale.  Globalization in all industries likely to continue, but with a US component now…  Growth in E-Commerce will lead the retail and logistics industries to re-define “DC- NETWORKS” Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

35 Bottom Line for Industrial RE  Key Markets will be based on Population Growth!  Invest where PEOPLE ARE GOING TO BE!  10 and 20 year Demographics are changing.  E-Com hubs are emerging: PHX, Columbus, Atlanta, Dallas, SoCal, Louisville, PA.  Look for where the demographic trends are likely to emerge in 10 year segments and plan accordingly. Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

36

37 About IMS Worldwide Inc. IMSW has completed over 295 FTZ Projects during 45 years. We have conducted 36 Logistics/Drayage studies for Industrial RE firms, RRs and land-owners. We work with Large Gateway Zones (Houston, LA, Miami, Dallas, Chicago, PHX, El Paso and NJ) We work with Fortune 1000 companies: Target, The Limited, Dell, Home Depot, Abbott Labs, TJX, Dicks Sporting Goods, CEVA, FedEx, UPS, Yusen, NFI, Nippon Express, etc. We work with the largest REITs in the USA: Prologis, Duke, Majestic, Clarion, USAA, IIT, etc.

38 IMSW Overview of National FTZ and Strategic Development Projects Foreign Trade Zone, Logistics and Supply Chain Consulting

39 Prepared By: Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc.


Download ppt "Prepared By: Curtis D. Spencer, President IMS Worldwide, Inc."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google