Presentation on theme: "1 THE NATIONAL RESOURCES INVENTORY Wayne A. Fuller Sarah Nusser and Jeff Goebel Roles of Statistics in 21 st Century Monitoring and Assessment Systems."— Presentation transcript:
1 THE NATIONAL RESOURCES INVENTORY Wayne A. Fuller Sarah Nusser and Jeff Goebel Roles of Statistics in 21 st Century Monitoring and Assessment Systems Denver September, 2004
2 The Natural Resources Inventory (NRI) A nationwide survey of non federal land Conducted by Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Technical support by Iowa State University
3 Outline History 1982-1997 National Resources Inventories Estimation-imputed points Annual Inventory
4 History Nusser and Goebel (EES, 1997) 1934 National Erosion Reconnaissanc Survey: Anecdotal (SCS) 1958 National Inventory of Soil and Water Conservation Needs (CNI): Stratified area sample of segments (40,160,640 acres) 1967 CNI: 38 Points within 160 Acre segments 1958 Segments
5 History (continued) 1977 National Resources Inventory: Subsample of 1958 sample. Segment Acres for built up, farmsteads, water, streams. Three points per 160 acre segment, 70,000 segments. 1982 National Resources Inventory: New sample in 13 Northern states. 321,000 National, 44,000 local segments. Three points per 160 acres. 1987 NRI: Subsample of 108,000 of 1982 sample.
6 History (continued) 1992 NRI: 300,000 segments (some retrospective 1987 data). 1997 NRI: 300,000 segments. Three points per 160 acres. 2000-200? NRI: 70,000 segments per year, 40,000 core every year. Subsamples of 1997 NRI.
7 Data Collection Photo – interpretation Segment acres of built-up, water Land coveruse of points NRCS Field Offices Cropping practices Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)
19 Table 4. Coveruse and acres of real points. Real Points Point 1Point 2Point 3 1982PastureCornSoybeans 1987PastureSoybeansCorn 1992PastureCornSoybeans 1997PastureSoybeansCorn Acres36
20 Imputed Points Probability of selecting donor coveruse Imputed estimated total close to two-phase estimate Fuller (2003)
21 1997 Data Set Set of points – ratio adjusted probability weights Acres for HUCCOs match administrative Estimates close to those of previous years
22 1982-1997 Gross-Change Table (Millions of Acres) 1982 1997 CroplandDeveloped Other NF land Water & FederalTotal Cropland350.3 7.0 62.1 1.5 421.0 Developed 0.272.7 0.3 0.0 73.2 Other NF land 25.718.5 950.7 6.81001.7 Water & Federal 0.8 0.0 3.6443.8 448.2 Total377.098.31016.7452.11944.1
23 Annual NRI Subsamples of 1997 NRI Supplemented Panel Design Core Panel every year Rotate supplementary panels 4-10 years to complete rotation
26 Generalized Least Squares Vector of year-panel means is “y” vector Vector of year means is “ ” vector Breidt and Fuller (JABES, 1999)
27 Estimation for Annual NRI Example: Impute 2000 for 2001 supplement Nearest Neighbor donor Direct estimates of large change
28 Reasons for Success Demand for information Adaptability and improvement (i) Cost structure (ii) Data: erosion, urban, CRP, wetlands (iii) Collection and processing techniques (iv) Auxiliary information-Geostatistical People and institutions
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