Metal prices fall further than during Great Depression The price of key industrial metals has fallen further over the last four months than occurred during the worst years of Great Depression between 1929 and 1933, according to research by Barclays Capital. By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard Last Updated: 7:29AM GMT 03 Dec 2008
“Chinese companies and their rivals are scouring the globe from Australia to Africa for access to the raw materials needed to sustain the Asian nation’s growth as commodity prices surge.” --June 23, 2006 (Bloomberg)
Renewable Energy WIND - Neodymium - Molybdenum - Iron Ore SOLAR - Cadmium - Tellurium - Indium - Germanium - Gallium - Selenium - Silicon - Copper
CommodityPrimary SourcesApplications in Alternative Energy AntimonyChinaThermoelectric/paraelectric materials BariumChinaThermoelectric/paraelectric materials BismuthChina, MexicoThermoelectric/paraelectric materials CobaltKinshasa,AustraliaPhotovoltaics (solar cells) GalliumChinaPhotovoltaics, paraelectric materials GermaniumBelgium,CanadaPhotovoltaics (solar cells) IndiumChina, CanadaSolar cells, thermo/paraelectric materials ManganeseGabon, S. AfricaPhotovoltaics NickelCanadaFuel cells Platinum groupSouth AfricaFuel cells, para/thermoelectric mtrls Rare EarthsChinaFuel cells, para/thermoelectric mtrls ScandiumChina, RussiaThermoelectric/paraelectric materials SeleniumCanadaSolar cells, thermoelectric materials StrontiumMexicoThermoelectric/paraelectric materials TantalumBrazilThermoelectric/paraelectric materials TelluriumBelgium, GermanySolar cells, thermoelectric metrls, semiconductors TinPeruThermoelectric materials TitaniumAustralia, S. AfricaSolar cells VanadiumCzech Rep., S. AfricaFuel cells ZincCanada, MexicoPhotovoltaics, fuel cells, thermoelectric mtrls Strategic and Critical Materials with uses in Alternative Energy applications for which the U.S. is dependent on imports for 50% or more of consumption
Toyota Prius Rare Earths “The biggest user of rare earths of any object in the world!”
HONG KONG — China is set to tighten its hammerlock on the market for some of the world’s most obscure but valuable minerals. --August 31, 2009 ( The New York Times )
World faces hi-tech crunch as China eyes ban on rare metal exports –August 24, 2009 (London Telegraph) China Tightens Grip on Rare Minerals –August 31, 2009 (New York Times) China Considers Rare-Earth Reserve in Inner Mongolia –September 2, 2009 (Bloomberg News) As hybrid cars gobble rare metals, shortage looms –August 31, 2009 (Reuters)
22% Imported Cement producers 1.China 2.India 3.U.S. China Consumes ½ of all the concrete in the world U.S. cement manufacturing is 81% foreign owned
$50/ ton > $200/ ton in 2008 Fertilizers Potash $50/ ton > $500/ ton in one year Sulfur Nitrogen urea $1000/ ton.
Dr Colin Thirtle, Professor of Development Economics, Imperial College London
U.S. Energy Split Oil Natural Gas Coal Uranium Renewables
CommodityPercent of U.S. Percentage Price Percent Imported energy supply Increase (2007 Net) Coal Oil Uranium Natural Gas Hydroelectric Biomass Solar.1-- Wind.3-- Geothermal % 6% Source: EIA, Annual Report 2007 U.S. Energy Split
World Coal Consumption
COAL Consumption- China 0% imported!
China’s Production and Consumption of Coal
Coal Spot Price 2/06 – 2/09 China begins importing coal $38 per ton $140 per ton
COAL Consumption- India 16% imported!
COAL U.S. 0% imported!
China/U.S. Coal 51% of world consumption. 54% of world production.
Colorado’s Coal is becoming increasingly desirable
Colorado has the seventh largest bituminous coal reserves in the nation. Colorado has the largest reserves of bituminous compliance coal in the nation. Colorado is the seventh largest coal producer in the nation. Colorado Impact Colorado Coal Production
World Nuclear Consumption
China : 32 new plants by per year through GW to 60 GW India: 17 new reactors by 2012
NUCLEAR- U.S. The last nuclear power plant came on line in 1996 Since then has U.S. nuclear generation -- Increased? Decreased? Remained flat?
NUCLEAR- U.S. Last nuclear power plant came online.
And, the largest nuclear power generator in the world?
The United States generates as much nuclear energy as— France, Germany, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom combined!
World Nuclear Power Consumption 436 Plants Operating 44 Under Construction Countries Applied to IAEA
The world’s existing 436 nuclear reactors currently need 180 million pounds of uranium each year. 80 million pound gap
Uranium prices Source: Cameco
Uranium-vanadium districts and mines, Colorado
10,000+ claims filed on federal lands in Colorado in Three new mines opened in Colorado in 2008 Colorado Impact 10,000+ claims filed on federal lands in Colorado in 2007.
World Oil Consumption
OIL CONSUMPTION- China Source: BP
OIL- CONSUMPTION India Source: BP
OIL- U.S. Consumption
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION to billion barrels 40% less DOWN THE OIL “ESCALATOR”
U.S. OIL PRODUCTION to 2050
How do you communicate what “2/3 of something gone” means?
In 1969, M. King Hubbert Predicted that World Production would Begin Declining in 2000.
5% % % % % % % % % % % % of the OIL Consumed by the Human Race Used Since % of the OIL Consumed by the Human Race Used Since Billion barrels Consumed Start 1859 (data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008) Copyright J. D. Hughes GSR Inc, 2008
(data from Arnulf Grubler, 1998; BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2008; U.S. Bureau of Census, 2008) Percentage of 2007 Year 5.3 times Population 8.6 times WOOD OIL COAL GAS Year HYDRO Per Capita Consumption Renewable 11% Non-Renewable 89% Year Total Consumption 45 times OIL COAL GAS Copyright J. D. Hughes GSR Inc, 2008
85% of the world’s oil comes from just 20 of the 65 producing countries 54 of the 65 producing countries are in decline
Mexico’s declining production at Cantarell field accelerating Mexican state oil company Pemex said Wednesday that production at its Cantarell oil field, the world’s second-largest, will drop faster than expected. 08/03/ producing 2.2 million barrels per day 2009 producing 0.6 million barrels per day
1 of 65 producing countries USA Peak 1970 Source: BP Annual Energy Report
USA Mexico Norway UK Indonesia Peak of 65 producing countries Source: BP Annual Energy Report
45 small producers USA Peak ~ of 65 producing countries Source: BP Annual Energy Report
45 small producers USA 61 of 65 producing countries Brazil Algeria Canada China Kuwait UAE Nigeria Libya Iraq Venezuela Iran Peak 2004 Source: BP Annual Energy Report
45 small producers USA Qatar Angola 63 of 65 producing countries Flat 2004 Source: BP Annual Energy Report
45 small producers USA Saudi Arabia 64 of 65 producing countries Flat? Source: BP Annual Energy Report
FSU Former Soviet Union nations 45 small producers USA Saudi Arabia FSU 65 of 65 producing countries Slight Increase Source: BP Annual Energy Report
Crude Oil Prices
Wattenberg oil well near Longmont 16th Largest oil field
Colorado Impact Rangely still has large reserves (57R/65P). Commerce City refinery will be processing Canadian oil sands. Colorado Oil Production
Oil shale is being seriously re-appraised.
World Natural Gas Consumption
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION - China 6% imported!
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION - India 26% imported!
NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION - U.S. 11% imported!
Natural Gas – America’s Silver Bullet?
Natural Gas Electrical Generation vs Natural Gas Imports Electricity from Natural Gas Natural Gas Imports
Million Cubic Feet of Gas U.S. Monthly Natural Gas Production Well Completions 8,90030,180 Average Initial Production Rockies Trends
Colorado Drilling Permits Approved
Colorado Drilling Rigs
Colorado has the fifth largest gas reserves in the nation. Colorado has the largest reserves of coalbed methane in the nation. Colorado is the seventh largest gas producer in the nation. Colorado Impact Colorado Natural Gas Production
Location of the 78,000+ wells that have been drilled for oil and gas. About half are dry holes.
Natural Gas Prices $2.00 +/- $0.50 $6.50
21 st Century Natural Gas Prices
Colorado has all, or parts, of seven of the top 50 natural gas fields in the nation!
Gas Price Needed to achieve a 10% IRR Piceance Basin Morgan Stanley EncanaIHS4/08/09
Delta Petroleum Drilled 163 Colorado wells Last month announced a loss of $459.7 million Next day stock dropped 41%
Natural Gas – America’s Silver Bullet?
(data copyright IHS Energy, Diagram prepared and copyright by EOG Resources Inc., 2006) 60% From Most Recent FOUR YEARS
Natural Gas – America’s Silver Bullet?
Oil Geothermal Solar Wind Coal Natural Gas Efficiency Conservation Hydro Nuclear Biomass
Hydro Generation - China
Hydro Generation – U.S.
Geothermal Energy Direct Use Electric Generation Geoexchange Heat Pumps
Below the 690 apartments—not to mention the gyms, bars, dry cleaners and movie theater—that make up the 15-acre Linked Hybrid residential complex in Beijing, China, are 660 geothermal wells that eliminate the need for air conditioners and boilers. Each well funnels water 325 feet beneath the ground into bedrock, where the constant 55ºF temperature either heats or cools it before it’s pumped back to the surface and piped through the building’s concrete floors. The system will reduce energy costs by up to 30 percent in the summer and up to 40 percent in the winter.
The Escalator Dilemma Natural Forces are Working Against Our Goals Depletion of Natural Resources Demand for Energy Demand Greenhouse Gas Reduction
The future is here! Are we ready?
Overall Impacts Coloradans will suffer from effects of inflation Coloradans may see increasing shortages of critical raw materials Conflicts may arise with multi-national corporations operating in Colorado Pressures will mount to develop more of Colorado’s natural resources How do we turn lemons into lemonade?
So– Working with GEO on geothermal electrical generation. Encouraging the use of Geoexchange heat pumps. Studying the potential of alternative energy minerals in Colorado Studying the potential of CCS. Trying to reduce our energy consumption Trying to increase public understanding of our energy situation. What is CGS doing?
“The world is a football field now and you’ve got to be sharp to be on the team which plays on that field. If you’re not good enough, you’re going to be sitting and watching the game. That’s all.” --Rajesh Rao, founder and CEO of Dhurva Interactive