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RTF Meeting January 23, 2013 Kevin Smit 425-889-2700 x247 RTF Costs and Benefits Standard Information Workbook A registered professional engineering corporation.

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Presentation on theme: "RTF Meeting January 23, 2013 Kevin Smit 425-889-2700 x247 RTF Costs and Benefits Standard Information Workbook A registered professional engineering corporation."— Presentation transcript:

1 RTF Meeting January 23, 2013 Kevin Smit x247 RTF Costs and Benefits Standard Information Workbook A registered professional engineering corporation with offices in the Seattle and Portland metropolitan areas Telephone (425) Facsimile (425) Consulting EES

2 Standard Information Workbook (SIW) 2 Objective: To develop regionally representative costs and non-energy benefit data that are common across multiple measures These costs are recorded and documented in the SIW (Excel Workbook) Can be used as a common resource (and repository) for those developing new or revised measures Provide a consistent platform for cost data and analysis Provides automatic conversion from data-year dollars to base-year dollars using Council’s GDP deflator

3 Progression of SIW 3 Contract awarded in August, 2012 EES continually contacted sources and collated data RTF staff met with EES several times between August and November to walk through approach and review draft versions of SIW Numerous rounds of RTF Staff review for workbook structure, data sources, analysis methodology, and content Presenting to RTF to gain feedback before adopting to use across multiple measures

4 SIW Contents 4

5 Contributors 5 Ted Light, ETO – Insulation, Windows, etc., etc. Mark Jerome, Fluid – Heat Pumps Graham Parker, PNNL – Windows David Thompson, Avista – CFLs Jenna Canseco, dnvKEMA (for NEEA) – CFLs Josh Brown, Fluid (for NEEA) – HPWH David Hales, WSU (Heat Pump Commissioning) RTF Staff: Nick, Tom, Charlie

6 SIW General Structure 6 Each Workbook follows the same general outline: Description Method Sources Results Analysis Data

7 Workbook Review 7 RTF Standard Information Workbook Color Scheme Input Cells Darker blue cells with white text are input Results Cells Key results will be highlighted in light gray cells with bold text Section Heading Section headings within each worksheet are indicated with light blue Table Heading Table headings are tan

8 RTF Cost Guidelines 8 Reference: Guidelines for the Development and Maintenance of Incremental Measure Costs and Benefits Estimates (March 2012) The guidelines recommend the following estimation approaches and one or more of these were used in each of the worksheets: 1. Averages (arithmetic mean) 2. Weighted average 3. Median 4. Regression modeling 5. Lower quartile 6. Built-up cost estimates

9 CFL Prices 9 Excluding Discounts (when possible) Geo Average Price Paid for General Purpose CFL Average Price Paid for Specialty CFL Average Price Paid for CFL (2012$) Big Box Urban $ 3.01 $ 5.81 $ 3.29 Rural $ 3.83 $ 8.95 $ 4.34 Drug, Grocery, Sm HW Urban $ 5.39 $ $ 5.87 Rural $ 5.04 $ $ 5.61 Overall $ 3.36 $ 6.47 $ 3.67 Estimation Method: Weighted Average, same as before Source: NEEA shelf survey results (KEMA, 2012) NEEA conducts annual shelf surveys for CFL’s Cost data net of incentives were provided separately by NEEA (not in the report) Impact: Compares well with current $3.50 CFL Price (2006$) Average CFL Price:$3.34

10 SF Insulation 10 Measure New - $/SF in 2006$Existing Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Walls - R-0 to R-11 $0.90 $ 0.97 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-0 to R-19 $0.77 $ 0.87 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-0 to R-30 $1.22 $ 1.37 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-19 to R-30 $0.45 $ 0.50 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-19 $0.46 $ 0.42 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-38 $0.92 $ 0.84 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-49 $1.18 $ 1.08 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-30 to R-38 $0.19 $ 0.18 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-30 to R-49 $0.46 $ 0.42 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-38 to R-49 $0.27 $ 0.24 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-30 $0.27 $ 0.24 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-38 $0.46 $ 0.42 Single Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-49 $0.72 $ 0.66 Estimation Method: median values from utility database, same as before Source: ETO data set Issue: Tried numerous regressions, but poor results

11 MF Insulation 11 Estimation Method: Used average values, same as before Source: ETO data set (N=61) Issue: Smaller sample size than Single Family MeasureNew - ($/SF In 2006 $)Existing Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Walls - R-0 to R-11 $ 0.76* $ 0.76 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-0 to R-19 $ 0.63 $ 1.01 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-0 to R-30 $ 0.99 $ 1.59 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Floors - R-19 to R-30 $ 0.36 $ 0.58 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-19 $ 0.65 $ 0.53 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-38 $ 1.30 $ 1.06 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-0 to R-49 $ 1.68 $ 1.36 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-30 to R-38 $ 0.27 $ 0.22 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-30 to R-49 $ 0.65 $ 0.53 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-38 to R-49 $ 0.38 $ 0.31 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-30 $ 0.38 $ 0.31 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-38 $ 0.65 $ 0.53 Multi Family Weatherization - Insulate Attic - R-19 to R-49 $ 1.03 $ 0.83 *New dataset had a sample size of 3. Recommended using the existing value ($0.76/sf.), or finding additional data)

12 SF Windows 12 Estimation Method: Lower quartile approach, same as before Source: Energy Trust database (N=2800) Issue: There is little or no cost data for the baseline window (U35). Currently using U34 window from Lowes plus installation (Total=$21.55/sf). Impact: New costs are higher MeasureMeasure Cost ($/sf in 2006$)Existing $/sf Windows - Single Pane to Class 22 $25.6 $ Windows - Double Pane to Class 22 $25.6 $ Windows - Single Pane to Class 30 $23.2 $ Windows - Double Pane to Class 30 $23.2 $ Windows - Class 35 to Class 30 $1.68 $ 0.89 Windows - Class 35 to Class 22 $4.03 $ 2.25

13 MF Windows 13 Estimation Method: Median installed cost per square foot, same as before Source: Energy Trust database (N=82) Issue: New MF values use same upgrade assumptions and costs as SF. Impact: replacement costs are lower, upgrade costs are higher. MeasureCost ($/sf in 2006$)Existing $/sf Windows - Single Pane to Class 22 $18.69 $ Windows - Double Pane to Class 22 $18.69 $ Windows - Single Pane to Class 30 $16.34 $ Windows - Double Pane to Class 30 $16.34 $ Windows - Class 35 to Class 30 $1.68 $ 0.89 Windows - Class 35 to Class 22 $4.03 $ 2.25

14 Heat Pumps 14 Estimation Method: Built-up cost estimates, same as before Source: Contractor bid (Mark Jerome) Performed regression analysis on a utility data set, but poor correlation (i.e., low R-square) Issue: Single Source used in analysis Impact: Slight increase over current costs for SF, decrease for MH upgrades Single Family Housing Measure-Related Costs (2006 $)Existing Upgrade to 9.0 HSPF/14 SEER (from 8.5) $80$63 Cost of 8.5 HSPF Heat Pump $5,007 $4,985 Forced Air Furnace $1,021 $862 Central AC $1,662 $1,359 Incremental Cost for PTCS Sizing $306$209 Manufactured Housing Measure Costs (2006$)Existing Upgrade to 8.2 HSPF (from 7.7) $647 $478 Upgrade To 8.5 HSPF(from 7.7) $1,181 $1,558 Upgrade to 9.0 HSPF(from 7.7) $1,353 $1,621 Cost of 7.7 HSPF Heat Pump $3,636 $3,404 Forced Air Furnace $887 $819 Central AC $1,626 $1,333 Incremental Cost for PTCS Sizing $274 $168

15 PTCS Duct Sealing 15 Estimation Method: Single family job cost based on Median value of utility data set. Source: Energy Trust data set (N=2800) Issue: Multifamily job cost is based on the incentive level ($300). Actual costs are not recorded, but most jobs are performed for the incented amount. MeasureCost per Job (2006$)Existing Single Family Duct Sealing $751 $538 Manufactured Home Duct Sealing $268 $375

16 PTCS Heat Pump Commissioning 16 Estimation Method: Built-up estimates, same as before Source: Mark Jerome and David Hales for heat pump commissioning cost ($225 in 2012$) Issue: Sizing is based on the incremental costs of heat pumps from the heat pump measure (same approach as existing workbook) ComponentCost Per Job (2006$)Existing Heat Pump PTCS Commissioning, Controls, and Sizing $507$434 Heat Pump Sizing $306$209 Heat Pump Commissioning $201$225

17 Heat Pump Water Heater 17 Estimation Method: Median value and retail price Source: Tier II costs are based on the median value of the NEEA data set (N=60) Tier I costs are based on retail prices from Sears, Home Depot, and Lowes Impact: Costs have come down for Tier 1 and up for Tier 2 HPWH Incremental Installed Cost (In 2006 $) Tier 1Tier 2 HPWH LocationSpace Heat TypeSmall TankLarge TankAny Size Unheated Buffer LocationAny Heat Type $803 $1,319 $2,132 Interior Location Gas Heated Home $849 $1,365 $2,276 Interior Location Zonal Electric Heated Home $849$1,365 $2,276 Interior Location Electric Furnace Heated Home $849$1,365 $2,276 Interior Location Heat Pump Heated Home $849$1,365 $2,276 Existing Tier 1Tier 2 Small Tank Large Tank Any Size $ 1,009 $ 1,608 $ 1,535 $ 1,060 $ 1,659 $ 1,810 $ 1,060 $ 1,659 $ 1,810 $ 1,060 $ 1,659 $ 1,810 $ 1,060 $ 1,659 $ 1,810

18 Efficient Water Heater 18 Estimation Method: Regression analysis of retail units (Lowes, Home Depot, Sears). Source: Retail price sheets Issue: Initially tried regression analysis of a utility data set, but R Square was very low. Impact: Costs are lower than current workbook. MeasureInc. Cost (2006$)Existing '>= 25 gallons, <35 gallons '>= 35 gallons, <45 gallons '>= 45 gallons, <55 gallons '>= 45 gallons, <55 gallons_EF '>= 55 gallons, <75 gallons '>= 75 gallons, <100 gallons '>= 100 gallons, <120 gallons Regression Statistics Multiple R0.976 R Square0.952 Adjusted R Square0.940 Standard Error Observations22

19 Next Steps 19 Collect any comments or feedback (or new sources) Make changes to SIW if necessary Adopt workbook for use at next meeting Continue to update and add material to workbook RTF Staff Nick O’Neil EES Consulting Kevin Smit x247


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