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The Next Intifada Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal, Canada. www.menewsline.com.

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Presentation on theme: "The Next Intifada Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal, Canada. www.menewsline.com."— Presentation transcript:

1 The Next Intifada Palestinian Strategy As Outlined in the PA Media Presentation by Middle East Newsline, Montreal, Canada.

2 Abbas Urged to Renew Uprising Pressure from Fatah Pressure from Hamas Pressure from Israel and U.S.

3 Pressure from Fatah Poor Showing in Municipal Elections Fear of Loss in PLC Elections Preparing for Power Struggle

4 Pressure from Hamas Emboldened by Election Results Building a State Within a State Preparing to Take Over Gaza after PLC Elections

5 Pressure from Israel, U.S. Demand for PA Security Reform Demand for Dismantling of Insurgency Groups Demand for Democracy, Fiscal Transparency

6 Fear of Israeli Withdrawal PA Can’t Impose Order on Gaza Israel Could Seal Up Gaza U.S. Would Support W. Bank Settlement Blocs

7 Bush Loses Credibility President Seen as Close to Sharon Concern Over Pro-Democracy Drive Unable to Implement PA Security Reforms

8 Scenarios of Bush-Abbas Meeting Bush Will Counsel Patience President Will Push for PA Security Reform Congress Will Block U.S. Aid Package

9 Uprising As Strategy Insurgency Would Strengthen PA Position Change U.S. Support for Israel Wear Down Sharon’s Resolve

10 Options for Uprising Mass Violence Against Israeli Troops Attacks on Jewish Settlements Provoke Massive Israeli Military Response

11 Immediate Results of Uprising Delay PLC Elections and Fatah Loss Strengthen Abbas and PA Win International Support for Palestinians

12 Conclusion Abbas Likely to Delay Uprising Fatah, Hamas Prepare for Renewal of War Gaza Strip to Serve as Launching Pad

13 Steve Rodan


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