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UBSW Emerging Companies Conference Andrew Lindberg, Managing Director 23 rd October 2002.

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Presentation on theme: "UBSW Emerging Companies Conference Andrew Lindberg, Managing Director 23 rd October 2002."— Presentation transcript:

1 UBSW Emerging Companies Conference Andrew Lindberg, Managing Director 23 rd October 2002

2 Overview Financial objectives Strategy Capital management Current issues

3 Our financial objectives are clear Target: 15% ROE Consistent trend EPS growth Stable dividend payment Improve quality of earnings Efficient capital management

4 The global asset manager model defines long term growth as being both vertical and horizontal Australian other grains Australian other commodities Australian wheat International wheat International other grains & commodities Solid domestic base enables domestic value chain integration and international growth Grower Relation- ships Customer Relation- ships Value adding products and services Rural Services Inputs Seed & Grain Tech. Shipping Finance & Risk Mgmt. Grain Acq. & Trading Supply Chain Milling & Processing Pool Mgmt.

5 Maximise value for growers, customers & shareholders In order to achieve our objectives, AWB has clearly defined strategies Win grower mandates Create value through supply chain efficiencies Sustain trading out performanceLead in grain technology Maintain growth and diversify revenue streams Strengthen stakeholder support Secure end user demand Strengthen organisational capability and performance

6 Specific near term initiatives will support our strategies Diversify domestically and offshore –Expand finance & risk management offerings –Strengthen position in Asia and Middle East and develop global trading business (Geneva) –State deregulation of other grains –Step up investigation of M&A opportunities Increase grains under management Strengthen our rural services base Supply chain investments that provide commercial returns Active capital management Ensure effective cost control

7 In 2001/02 AWB strengthened its core business … Strengthen core business to sustain performance Further improvement to a key under-performing business area - Chartering Strengthening of the performance of the Single Desk and implementation of new performance based remuneration model Broaden financial and risk services to growers and customers Strengthen grower/rural services and financial advisory networks Development of AWB supply chain network with capacity of around 3mt Development of superior grain varieties through a JV with Syngenta Establishment of new business processes, systems and product development capability

8 Diversification … through acquisitions, other grain trading, non-pool chartering and global trading will result in a lower reliance on Australian wheat receivals (f) = AWB forecast (p) = AWB Plan Other grain and non-Aust wheat & Diversification Wheat related NPAT Diversification ($m) 97% 90%80% 3% 10% 20%

9 M&A activity is important to assist diversification Less than 80% reliant on wheat by 2004/05 15% ROE target Establishment of platforms for further growth and diversification Efficient capital management Further pursue and review opportunities in the value chain, other grains, other commodities Assess other opportunities for strategic fit as they become available Continue to manage current overseas investments Review of management of Single Desk in 2004 Increased competition from domestic and global players Rationalisation of domestic supply chain Opportunities in other commodities, other grains Offshore opportunities Planned Outcomes InitiativesEnvironment

10 2001-02 Capital management Shareholders’ funds (average)$772m PAT (midpoint of range)$105m ROE13.6% EPS38 cps DPS25-28 cps

11 Capital is allocated notionally to businesses Main businesses that use capital are: - Finance & Risk Management Products - Grain Acquisition & Trading - Supply Chain & Other Investments Other business streams include: - Grain Technology - Pool Management Services

12 We allocate capital using a top-down and bottom-up approach We consider a range of factors such as targeted credit rating, value at risk and the universe of agricultural operations and product companies As an indication, for 2001/02 we allocated: -Finance & Risk Management Products$150m -Grain Acquisition & Trading $200m -Supply Chain & Other Investments$100m Other main capital uses include corporate assets ($50m) Surplus equity of between $250m - $300m As we diversify we will allocate capital accordingly

13 The company is funded through commercial paper We fund the company and therefore businesses through 3 commercial paper (CP) programs – AUD, US & EURO We have a relationship bank panel of 16 throughout the world. These banks provide liquidity support i.e. ability to fund company at all times even when markets are tight Last year AWB issued over $US5b in CP We are an active participant in the FX, Options and Swaps markets

14 We are constantly looking at the mix of capital and debt in relation to the opportunities available to us Depending on the range and size of these opportunities we will consider the structure of the balance sheet for maximum value to shareholders This will include raising some long term debt (none currently) which could take the form of medium term notes, private placement, or hybrid securities. We will consider a share buy back if this makes sense for shareholder value

15 Current issues IssueImpact on AWB Australian Wheat ProductionHigh USD Wheat PriceMedium USD/AUD Exchange RateMedium AUD Interest RateLow

16 Wheat receivals currently have significant impact on profit Sensitivity Analysis Key Drivers Incremental change Impact on 2002-03 NPAT National Wheat Crop (mt) +/- 1mt USD Wheat Price (US$) +/- US$5.00 USD/AUD Exchange Rate-/+ $0.05 Domestic Interest Rate (%) +/- 1.0% +/- $6 - 7m +/- $1m +/- $3m - 4m +/- $2m - 3m

17 El Niño patterns generally last 12 & 18 months Volume (mt) Price ($AUD) El Niño Source: ABARE f = forecast. Note: 5 – 20 yr averages include 2002-03 forecast Production: 5 yr ave = 21.1 mt 10 yr ave = 19.0 mt 20 yr ave = 17.3 mt f Area: 5 yr ave=11.8 m/ha 10 yr ave=10.7 m/ha 20 yr ave=10.4 m/ha

18 AWB is well positioned Significant expertise and scale in global wheat marketing One of the largest integrated global wheat managers Large existing customer base Manager of the Single Desk Potential to broaden range of products, services and customers in Australia and overseas Strong balance sheet and dividend paying capacity

19 Full year results 2002-03 Released Wednesday 20 November Analyst briefing at 2:30pm Wednesday 20 November Briefings in Sydney Thursday 21 November Briefings in Melbourne Friday 22 November

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