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MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas*

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Presentation on theme: "MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas*"— Presentation transcript:

1 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 1 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Foresight & Higher Education - Two cases - Dr. Ozcan Saritas* *with thanks to Prof. Luke Georghiou who has kindly provided some of these slides

2 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 2 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Change and Uncertainty: The context of HE  Peak oil / Climate change / Urbanisation / Terrorism  Gene therapy / stem cell injections / artificial intelligence  How should schools, universities and educational system deal with these changes?  Curricula / Roles of teachers & students  What are the alternative futures for education? – as a subset of broader transformation of society  What future for Universities?

3 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 3 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest 1. The “new” University of Manchester  Victoria University of Manchester and UMIST merged in October 2004 to form UK’s largest university  The 2015 Vision of the new institution – overall objective set out in Vision Document Manchester 2015 To make the University of Manchester, already an internationally distinguished centre of research, innovation learning and scholarly inquiry, one of the leading universities in the world by  Aiming for distinctive identity that equalled but did not emulate the UK’s “Golden Triangle” or the US Ivy League

4 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 4 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Strategy Encapsulated in 9 Goals 1 High International Standing  To establish the University of Manchester as a world renowned centre of scholarship and research by To match the leading universities in the world in attracting and retaining teachers, researchers and 'critical mass' research teams of the highest quality. To be a higher education brand synonymous with the finest international standards of academic excellence with pioneering, influential and exciting research and scholarship. 2 World Class Research  To establish the University of Manchester by 2015 among the 25 strongest research universities in the world on commonly accepted criteria of research excellence and performance. 3 Exemplary Knowledge and Technology Transfer 4 Excellent Teaching and Learning 5 Widening Participation 6 Empowering Collegiality 7 Efficient, Effective Management 9 More Effective Community Service

5 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 5 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest 2015 Agenda – Key Goals and Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) Goal 1: High International Standing Present KPIs  Clear evidence of improvement in standing as measured by reputable international higher education rankings  Appointing a number of ‘iconic’ scholars: 5 Nobel Laureates on staff by 2015, 3 by 2008

6 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 6 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest 2015 Agenda Goal 2: World Class Research Initial KPIs  50% staff international quality 2008; 70% 2015  Doubling real research income by 2015  Doubling postgraduate research students and postdocs by 2015 Present modified KPIs  Annual increase in share of high impact research publications  Doubling real external grant income by 2015  Treble research expenditure by 2015  Double no of PGR students successfully completing and no of postdocs by 2015

7 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 7 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Progress to Date – Achievements  Two Nobel laureates signed (one paid for by large donation) plus another iconic appointment, several more in pipeline  Research income growth ahead of schedule TARE rose 45% in 3 years  Most popular in terms of student applications – growing when others falling  External recognition – Times Higher and Sunday Times University of the Year in successive years  Biggest mover up the rankings but not enough

8 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 8 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Tracking the ARWU - Academic Ranking of World Universities World ranking European ranking UK ranking *78*24*9* * VUM only

9 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 9 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Challenges  Financial –Large operating deficit in 2006 (£30m on £601m turnover) had to be eliminated – now back in surplus –Driven by larger than expected national salary settlements, growth of staff numbers by 2,800, investment ahead of RAE and structural deficit through duplication –Early retirement and voluntary severance scheme reduced staff (mainly admin) by 630 –Highlights marginal nature of academic finances and vulnerability to shocks meaning must maintain drive for productivity gain and growth of high revenue areas  Balancing teaching and research –Initial push for research gave students impression of neglect –University now launched challenging initiative to re-personalise undergraduate education while gaining efficiency through e-learning and Graduate Teaching Assistants –Promotion tracks available for teaching and knowledge transfer specialist as well as conventional careers  Trade off between indicators has to be managed

10 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 10 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest 2. UK Scenarios Project  Dept. of Innov., Univ.s & Skills was formed in 2007 and merged in to Dept. of Business Innov. & Skills in 2009  Ministers commissioned HSC to run scenarios process to –Improve robustness of existing policies by acting as a stimulating challenge –Assist in the development of new policies and corporate plans  10 dimensions of uncertainty identified in interaction with expert and stakeholder groups – external and internal –Values and beliefs –Demographics and migration –Economic integration governance and models (“uncertainty whether growth is to remain steady or whether there will be volatility. Increasing economic interdependence, especially in financial markets, poses regulatory and policy challenges ”) –Research and innovation; Education and skills  Scenario axes –Global political and economic context –Values in the UK

11 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 11 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Figure Scenario structure

12 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 12 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest

13 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 13 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Specialisation Differentiation Competition Globalisation New entrants International mobility Student consumerism Open innovation New research technologies e-learning Demographic change Widening participation Cooperation Business International governance Tuition fees Insufficient resources Commercialisation Drivers of Change for HE STUDENT NUMBERS RESEARCH BUSINESS INTERNATIONALISATION Application in University of Manchester

14 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 14 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest University of Manchester Scenarios  Our attempt to translate the implications for this institution  Again seeking plausible stories not predictions  Our previous foresight had looked at intellectual and structural trends with the aim of identifying emerging priority themes  But sense of impending crisis means need to think beyond the business plan…  Most recent round articulated UK scenarios for our own environment

15 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 15 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Global Player Perpetual Motion – Global Player Research – mainly private sector and much from overseas and for arts and humanities from donations Teaching – consumer focus delivered internationally via blended learning Knowledge transfer – one third of income from CPD

16 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 16 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Global Alliances Shaken Open – Global Alliances Research – Large scale challenge projects with investigator driven funding only for elite Teaching – Global alliances with franchising; Student idealism demands engagement with social issues Knowledge transfer – weak IPR driving CPD market for updated skills

17 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 17 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Manchester as a National and Regional Institution Protective Collective Research – Dual support surviving at low level; strong national focus in research agenda Teaching – Loss of overseas markets, national skills agenda dominates; widening participation Knowledge transfer – focus on national and regional markets

18 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 18 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Manchester Downsized and Downmarket Self-Service Research – Low level but some self-support through earnings from entrepreneurship Teaching – Substantial downsizing in home and overseas markets; Part-time and blended learning dominate Knowledge transfer – CPD market mainly for individual upskilling

19 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 19 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest How are we using the foresight?  Strategic review looking at viability of activities  Profiling all staff in terms of research  Financial scenarios to anticipate potential negative public sector financial environment as post-election government seeks to repair public finances  Strong efforts in areas of discretionary income growth –Executive Education/Continuing Professional Development

20 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 20 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest BUIM: Bosphorus University, Engineering Faculty The Department of Civil Engineering PYY: Istanbul Technical University, Architecture Faculty, The Division of Project and Construction Management 3. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Foresight Exercises

21 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 21 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest Five Goals: 1.Thinking about the long term future in a holistic manner, and 2.Developing future visions for the construction industry and PYY and BUIM departments, with 3.A wide participation, to 4.Identify future R&D and T&E areas, and to 5.Develop research and teaching policies and strategies for long, medium and short terms. PYY2023 & BUIM2023 Goals

22 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 22 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest BUIM2023 PYY2023 Pre-project work Post-project work Project work Project proposal documents Construction2023 survey Keyword analysis Project proposal and goal definition Systems elements and relationships Construction2023 BUIM2023 & PYY2023 Roadmapping Decisions for today Project Reports Comparison Further actions

23 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 23 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest

24 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 24 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest

25 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 25 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest 1.New R&D and teaching areas 2.New PhD and MSc topics 3.New curricula for 2010, 2015 & Optimisation of research and teaching potential 5.New recruitments ( alternative energy sources) 6.Selection criteria for the employment of new researchers and research students 7.Collaborations needed with other disciplines 8.New infrastructure needs 9.Future development directions 10.“Know theyselves” More effective communication Outputs & Outcomes

26 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 26 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest References  Georghiou. L. (2009). Strategy to Join the Elite: Merger and the 2015 Agenda at the University of Manchester, in McKelvey M and Holmen M (eds) Learning To Compete In European Universities - From Social Institution to Knowledge Business Edward Elgar.  Saritas, O. (2006). Systems Thinking for Foresight, PhD Thesis, PREST, University of Manchester.

27 MLW1 – Systems Thinking for Foresight 27 Ozcan SaritasSept 24, 2009 Bucharest End of presentation.. Dr. Ozcan Saritas


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