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FACTs Fiscal Adjustment Cost Templates for Selecting Budget-Advantaged Stocks.

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Presentation on theme: "FACTs Fiscal Adjustment Cost Templates for Selecting Budget-Advantaged Stocks."— Presentation transcript:

1 FACTs Fiscal Adjustment Cost Templates for Selecting Budget-Advantaged Stocks

2 2 GGA Profile Team members include: Dick Gephardt, President and CEOTom Blank, Executive VP Tom O’Donnell, Managing PartnerScott Brenner, VP Clients include: Anheuser-BuschNBC BoeingPeabody Energy GEPort of Oakland Goldman SachsUnitedHealthcare GoogleVisa

3 3 David Ahn Prior Experience: Director of Research, Hanover Investment Group Graduate Fellow, Department of State Senior Analyst, Driehaus Capital Management MA, Johns Hopkins University, School of Advanced International Studies BA, Yale University

4 4 I.Fiscal cliff II.What’s the trade? Actual examples. III.What’s the FACT product?

5 1.Government shutdown threat – October 1, 2012 2.Bush tax cuts, payroll tax cut, and other provisions expire – January 1, 2013 3.Sequestration – January 2013 4.Debt limit – Will have to be raised in the first quarter of 2013 5 4 Horsemen of the fiscal apocalypse

6 6 Tax and spending cuts per year, indefinitely Expiration of Bush tax cuts$340b Other expiring tax cuts$ 60b Automatic sequester cuts$ 88b Expiration of payroll tax cut$153b Doc Fix$ 25b Medicare tax$ 28b Total $710 billion As % of GDP…………………………………………4.5% Fiscal Cliff

7 7 Government shutdown threat The House passed a budget with discretionary spending for FY2013 of $1.028 trillion; $1.047 trillion was agreed to in last summer’s Budget Control Act. This sets up another government shutdown threat by the end of the fiscal year (September 30). Preliminary forecast: We expect a series of continuing resolutions (which use the prior year’s funding levels) to fund the government until the next Congress convenes in January.

8 8 Tax Cuts The Obama Administration proposes extending the Bush tax cuts for families earning less than $250,000 a year. Cuts for those earning more would lapse when the Bush tax cuts expire at the end of 2012. The Republican proposal is to continue the Bush tax cuts for everyone, regardless of income. Next Step: House Republicans plan to vote this summer to extend all the tax cuts for about 12 months. Obama has said he won’t extend them all. Both sides will have to see if they can settle their differences before the November election. If not, they’ll have to deal with the tax cuts in the lame duck session.

9 9 Sequestration Bipartisan Policy Center Preliminary forecast: Negotiations to limit the sequestration will fail, and then it will kick in for several months, if not permanently. 9% cut in domestic discretionary programs 8% cuts in mandatory programs other than Medicare 2% cut in Medicare provider payments 9% cut in defense programs

10 10 Debt Limit The U.S. is projected to reach its $16.394 trillion debt ceiling in late 2012 or early 2013. Because Treasury can utilize “extraordinary measures” once the limit is hit, immediate congressional action is not required; extraordinary measures may allow the US to remain within the limit until February 2013. Preliminary forecast: We expect an increase that will last up to 12 months, but no grand bargain. Tax reform has to be part of any grand bargain. This will be late 2013 at the earliest.

11 11 Debt Limit

12 12 I.Fiscal cliff II.What’s the trade? Actual examples. III.What’s the FACT product?

13 13 Investment Planning Horizon Short-term Future 0 to 3 Years Medium Term Future 3 to 5 Years Long- Term Future 5 to 20 Years Expected Time for Fiscal Adjustments Rob Dugger, a former partner at Tudor, and I developed the framework of Fiscal Adjustment Cost Discounting. The central idea is that a fiscal crisis brings investor expectations of fiscal adjustments forward and into their investment planning horizons, i.e. into the timeframe where investors price in events. Usual expectations of Fiscal Adjustment timing What’s the trade?

14 14 Investment Planning Horizon Short-term Future 0 to 3 Years Medium Term Future 3 to 5 Years Long- Term Future 5 to 20 Years Expected Time for Fiscal Adjustments The July 2011 debt limit fight moved expected fiscal adjustments from the long-term into the short-term Expected Time for Fiscal Adjustments Budget Crisis FAC Discounting - Stock Selling and Treasury Buying RESULT: Crisis-Driven Expectation Shift

15 15 Why did Treasury bonds rally and stocks sell off in the face of a default threat? 1.In early summer 2011, federal agencies notified private contractors that they would stop payments if the debt limit was not increased. Treasury did not send such a letter to bondholders, signaling that bondholders would get priority over contractors. 2.That was the signal that Treasury bonds would rally even though there was a threat of default and then a sovereign downgrade by S&P. Stocks sold off because many companies rely heavily on government spending and taxing. Investors priced in the risk that this revenue stream could halt. Summer 2011 Paradox

16 16 We made the contrarian call to buy Treasuries on June 30, 2011, ahead of the debt limit negotiations and default threat. 10-year Treasury yield in 2011 Bill Gross says he’s selling Treasuries Client note: “Why Bill Gross is wrong on his call to sell Treasuries” Bond Market Rally

17 17 European credit markets drove U.S. stocks in 2011, but U.S. fiscal problems deepened sell-offs. S&P 500 vs European corporate CDS index (inverted) Default threat, Budget Control Act, U.S. downgrade Congress barely passes “easy” CR Supercommittee failure Stock Market Sell-off

18 18 FAC discounting is not limited to the macro level. Shifts in investor expectations of fiscal adjustments occur on the industry level as well. Investment Planning Horizon Short-term Future 0 to 3 Years Medium Term Future 3 to 5 Years Long- Term Future 5 to 20 Years Expected Time for Fiscal Adjustments FAC Attack FAC Discounting on the Industry Level FAC Discounting – Stock Selling RESULT:

19 19 “But Carnival’s biggest government benefit of all may be the price it pays for many of those services. Over the last five years, the company has paid total corporate taxes — federal, state, local and foreign — equal to only 1.1 percent of its cumulative $11.3 billion in profits. Thanks to an obscure loophole in the tax code, Carnival can legally avoid most taxes.” NY Times article February 1, 2011: “The Carnival Corporation wouldn’t have much of a business without help from various branches of the government. The United States Coast Guard keeps the seas safe for Carnival’s cruise ships. Customs officers make it possible for Carnival cruises to travel to other countries. State and local governments have built roads and bridges leading up to the ports where Carnival’s ships dock.” Example 1: Cruise Lines

20 20 The NYT article triggered FAC Discounting. It brought forward investors’ expectations that cruise lines’ tax loopholes would close. We’ve isolated this effect on the stock price. This chart starts on the day the article was published. Cruise lines underperform

21 21 Carried interest has long been on the chopping block of tax breaks to eliminate. A timeline: July-September 2007: The Senate Finance Committee first held hearings on the issue. December 2009: The House used elimination of carried interest as a “pay for” as part of H.R. 4213, the bill to extend unemployment insurance. But the final law did not eliminate carried interest. Every February from 2009-2012: President Obama proposed repeal in each of his budgets – FY2010-2013 January 24, 2012: Mitt Romney releases his tax returns for 2010 and 2011. Carried interest is the main reason his tax rate was 13.9% and 15.4%, respectively. Romney’s campaign policy director said Romney would consider repealing the loophole as part of tax reform. Example 2: Private Equity

22 22 Congressional attention on carried interest over the years made it a prime target for repeal. Romney’s tax returns and the subsequent attention triggered a FAC attack. Investors priced in higher tax rates for private equity firms. Private equity underperforms

23 23 Looking ahead: Stock Options? Stock option accounting background: On their P&L, companies count the exercised option price, not the stock’s market value, as the cost But for tax purposes, companies can deduct the market value of the stock, usually much higher Timeline: July 14, 2011: Senator Carl Levin (D-MI) introduces S.1375 - Ending Excessive Corporate Deductions for Stock Options February 1, 2012: Facebook’s IPO filing says its stock option deduction will be so large it won’t pay taxes for 2011

24 24 Budget advantages by S&P sector This is a rough calculation of how much the 10 S&P sectors relied on the government in 2010. In very general terms, we recommend rotating out of the top sectors and into the bottom ones.

25 25 I.Fiscal cliff II.What’s the trade? Actual examples. III.What’s the FACT product?

26 26 1.Alerts a.When the risk level of a provision changes b.Other additions to the database 2.Database a.Hundreds of tax and spending provisions b.Risk that their repeal will be priced in c.Which industries will be affected 3.Weekly Report a.Macro FAC risk level b.Discussion of political risks FACT Product

27 27 We will send an alert when we see a significant change to the FAC Discounting risk level of a provision, for example: ALERT – FDA user fee reauthorizationMay 30, 2012 Positive for generics over brand-name pharmaceuticals The House committee responsible for the FDA user fee reauthorization bill (H.R.5651) voted on Friday night to pass a version very similar to the Senate version (S.3187), which passed the Senate on May 24 with a 96-1 majority. Expect the House to pass H.R.5651 today. Then the bills will go to a House-Senate conference, but since they are quite similar the conference should go smoothly. We expect a bill on the President’s desk by the July 4 recess, well ahead of the 2007 reauthorization’s expiration on September 30, 2012. For the first time, generic drug companies will pay user fees to help cover the cost of the FDA approval process. Although generic companies will have to pay about $300 million per year in user fees, they will receive significantly faster approvals, eventually down from 30 months to 10 months. With generic competition coming to market sooner, we expect a cut in brand name drug revenue projections and a jump in generic drug revenue projections. Expect generic pharmaceutical stocks to begin outperforming brand name pharmaceutical stocks. More details about this provision are available on our FACT database: Alerts

28 28 Click on the database provision for a more detailed explanation Database Provision Page Snapshot

29 29 Hundreds of sortable tax and spending provisions: Database Snapshot

30 30 Tax hikes are inching onto the Republican table Wall Street is now aware of the timing and magnitude of the fiscal cliff. It’s too soon to develop possible political outcomes and trade off them, but some comments over the past week started to shape the debate, especially on taxes. Speaker Boehner drew the same line in the sand for the next debt limit showdown, expected in February 2013. He will only accept a debt limit increase in the same proportion as spending cuts. President Obama shot back the next day and said there should be no conditions. Boehner was likely trying to appeal to his Tea Party caucus. But there appears to be a consensus among moderate Republicans (Boehner is among them) to accept tax increases as part of a deficit reduction deal. The Wall Street Journal, the business voice of moderate Republicans, published an op-ed by Robert Rubin calling for tax increases as part of a deal. The Washington Post reported that fewer Republicans are signing Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge. There appears to be a slow but sure moderation in Republicans’ anti-tax stance. op-ed by Robert Rubin calling for tax increases as part of a deal fewer Republicans are signing Grover Norquist’s anti-tax pledge This is progress, albeit a baby step. But even if Republicans put tax hikes on the table, the even harder job is to agree on which taxes to raise and which tax loopholes to eliminate. FACTs Weekly Report Perceived FAC risk level: LOW

31 FACTs Fiscal Adjustment Cost Templates for Selecting Budget-Advantaged Stocks

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