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2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Antitrust fraud in highway construction: Converting Statistics into Cases Turner Bond Office of.

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Presentation on theme: "2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Antitrust fraud in highway construction: Converting Statistics into Cases Turner Bond Office of."— Presentation transcript:

1 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Antitrust fraud in highway construction: Converting Statistics into Cases Turner Bond Office of Inspector General, Missouri Dept. of Transportation

2 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases  Starting with Statistics Converting Statistics into Cases  Developing your Cases  Marketing your Cases §  Coming out of the Ivory Tower

3 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Starting with Statistics §

4 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases MARIES Truman Reservoir Kansas City Northwest I-70 St. Louis - Iron Mt. Assign Markets Northeast Jeff. City - Rolla Bootheel Southern

5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Kansas City Mkt. Normal Variation Market Shares show supra-competitive influences. 51% 44% 42% 47% 51% 54% 51% 58% 53% 40% 36% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Northeast Mkt. Unnaturally Even

6 MARIES Kansas City St. Louis-Iron Mt. Bootheel Healthy Monitor Patterns Patterns to Analyze Targeted Invest. Northeast I-70 Northwest Truman Reservoir Southern Jeff. City - Rolla Highlight Problem Areas

7 B A C D E Overlay Territories §

8 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases ANTI-TRUST ANALYST: My computer models indicate collusion in the South. Will you investigate? If I had a witness, what would I need you for? LAW ENFORCEMENT: Sorry. I can’t help you if you don’t have a witness. Oh. Statistics and graphs aren’t enough: §

9 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Coming out of the Ivory Tower

10 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Look for the Underlying Mechanics § Vertical Market Control – the origin of our anti-trust laws.Vertical Market Control – the origin of our anti-trust laws. Losing Entity is a tax dodge or bidding signalLosing Entity is a tax dodge or bidding signal Schill bidder just wants aggregate sales.Schill bidder just wants aggregate sales. Who knew what – and when.Who knew what – and when.

11 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Reality check your theories

12 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Broaden your Perspective Imbed yourself: Talk with materials inspectors, field inspectors, testing staff.Imbed yourself: Talk with materials inspectors, field inspectors, testing staff. Network: fraud investigators from other fields, DBE certifiers, municipal contracting agents, law enforcement, etc.Network: fraud investigators from other fields, DBE certifiers, municipal contracting agents, law enforcement, etc. Cross-train: computer science, engineering, anti- trust law, economics, statistics, etc.Cross-train: computer science, engineering, anti- trust law, economics, statistics, etc. §

13 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Become your Department’s Advocate for Competition § Restructure contracts.Restructure contracts. Bring in competing industries.Bring in competing industries.

14 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Developing Cases §

15 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Bridging the gap between Statistics and Investigations §

16 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Use Case Profiling Summarize Case Scope of transactionsScope of transactions Date of first awarenessDate of first awareness Theory of corruptionTheory of corruption Mechanics of the dealMechanics of the deal Assess Viability: find 3 out of 4 markers Is there a definable system of exchange?Is there a definable system of exchange? Is the consumer damaged?Is the consumer damaged? Is there irrational business behavior?Is there irrational business behavior? Is there a history of concern with these players?Is there a history of concern with these players? §

17 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Create Briefing Books Generic, reusable, and short.Generic, reusable, and short. Theory of the mechanics behind the deal.Theory of the mechanics behind the deal. Potential contactsPotential contacts –Injured competitors –Disgruntled employees Attachments profiling current evidenceAttachments profiling current evidence §

18 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Marketing Cases

19 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Market Your Cases Good ideas don’t sell themselves.Good ideas don’t sell themselves. Develop contacts and keep them open.Develop contacts and keep them open. Send them usable information.Send them usable information. Be persistent. If, at first you don’t succeed …Be persistent. If, at first you don’t succeed … §

20 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases  Start with Statistics  Develop your Cases  Market your Cases §  Reality Check your Work Summary

21 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases

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24 Profile Vendors §

25 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases  Starting with Statistics Converting Statistics into Cases  Developing your Cases  Marketing your Cases §  Coming out of the Ivory Tower

26 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Bridging the gap between Statistics.... §.... and Investigations Developing Cases

27 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Become your Department’s Advocate for Competition §

28 2003 TUG Conference – Converting Statistics into Cases Force Competition Where it’s Needed Restructure contracts.Restructure contracts. Bring in competing industries.Bring in competing industries. §


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