Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Www.conferenceboard.ca Overview of British Columbia’s Economy and Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Michael Bloom Vice-President, Organizational.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Www.conferenceboard.ca Overview of British Columbia’s Economy and Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Michael Bloom Vice-President, Organizational."— Presentation transcript:

1 Overview of British Columbia’s Economy and Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Michael Bloom Vice-President, Organizational Effectiveness and Learning The Conference Board of Canada B.C. Labour Market Forum 2010, Vancouver, B.C.; November 25, 2010

2 Global and U.S. Context Weak recovery from recession is yielding modest GDP growth. Developing economies are leading growth and creating new markets—and new competition. U.S. recovery continues to be dampened by housing issues and relatively weak consumer confidence. 2

3 World Real GDP Growth (annual per cent change) Source: Consensus Economics. 3

4 Uneven Growth in Global Economy (per cent change, real GDP) Source: Consensus Economics. 4

5 U.S. Outlook U.S. recovery is a year old—but pace of growth is slowing. European debt crisis is prompting some firms to delay expansion. Consumer and business investment spending on the mend but stronger job creation is needed. Removal of fiscal and monetary stimulus needs to be done carefully. 5

6 U.S. Unemployment Rate (per cent) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 6

7 Canadian Outlook Canada’s recovery is built on the strength of the domestic economy—it needs a revival in U.S. employment to maintain momentum in Core inflation, higher energy prices, rising sales taxes: have prompted the Bank of Canada to start lifting rates. 7

8 Canadian Outlook Higher rates and a fading European debt crises will keep the Loonie strong. Real GDP growth of 3.0 per cent in 2010—easing to 2.5 per cent in 2011, as government spending cools. Provinces will struggle with fiscal situation—for most, balancing budgets within five years will be difficult or impossible. 8

9 Employment Growth Canada, 2001–12 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 272,000 job losses 9

10 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Unemployment Rate Natural rate Canada Unemployment Rate vs. Natural Rate (per cent),

11 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. Manufacturing Professional & Other Services Can. Employment (000s)

12 Can. Housing Starts vs. Household Formation, (000s) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation. Household formation 12

13 B.C.’s Transformation A past dependence on primary industries created a powerful image of B.C. that still survives in some quarters. But the largest provincial industries are no longer forestry, mining, fishing and agriculture. Reality: B.C.’s economy is transformed: services, construction and manufacturing are now dominant. 13

14 British Columbia, CBoC Outlook Highlights A post-Olympic slump will hurt the service sector in 2011, as several industries find themselves missing the one-time boost provided by B.C.’s hosting of the 2010 Winter Olympics. Real GDP growth will moderate in B.C. in 2011 as public infrastructure stimulus spending comes to an end. 14

15 B.C. Outlook – Autumn 2010 The recovery will continue in the forestry, manufacturing and mining sectors, and new production from shale gas will support near-term GDP growth. Forestry exports to China up 50 per cent; double-digit increases Japan; solid wood exports double to E.U. in Mining is shining—metal mining output to double by

16 B.C. Outlook – Autumn 2010 Housing up in 2009, lost steam in Housing starts will slow in 2011 (CBoC forecast). Employment has recovered to pre- recession levels but more part-time recovery than full-time. Unemployment will fall to 6.8 per cent by 2013 (B.C. forecast). 16

17 B.C. Real GDP Growth (percentage change, 2002 $) Source: B.C. Ministry of Finance. 17

18 Real GDP by Province, 2010 (percentage change; 2002 $) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 18

19 Real GDP by Province, 2011 (percentage change; 2002 $) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 19

20 Long-term GDP Growth Rankings (annual average growth, ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 20

21 B.C. Real GDP Growth (average annual growth) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada 21

22 Total Employment Growth by Province (percentage, ) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 22

23 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C Stats. Natural Resources, left axis Other Goods, right axis B.C. Natural Resources vs. Other Goods (% of employment) 23

24 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C Stats. Manufacturing Construction B.C. Construction and Manufacturing Employment ( 000’s) 24

25 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C Stats. Employment GDP B.C. Goods Sector (Goods sector as a % of total economy) 25

26 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C Stats. Goods Services B.C. Service Sector – Boosts GDP (GDP Index 1990 = 100) All industries 26

27 B.C. Long-Term Outlook Highlights Aging population will drive changes in the economy. Supply constraints on labour are not far down the road. Net international immigration will need to expand steadily over the forecast. Potential output weakens through Productivity gains would help sustain GDP. 27 Source: The Conference Board of Canada.

28 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. B.C. Potential Output Growth (contribution to growth, percentage points) 28

29 Average Weekly Wages (level $) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 29

30 Real Output, Key Industries (ave. annual compound growth, per cent) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 30

31 B.C.’s People Today, 4.5 million people live in B.C.— 13 per cent of the national population. B.C. produces 12.5 per cent of GDP. Vancouver is third largest metropolitan area in Canada (after Toronto & Montreal). Female population has grown faster than males since 1980—women outnumber men in urban regions—but not in rural areas. 31

32 B.C.’s People Population is aging – 36 per cent of individuals are under 30 years of age, while 27 per cent are over 55 years. Immigration, especially from Asia, has been a major source of population growth. As a result, B.C. is becoming more culturally and ethnically diverse. 32

33 B.C.’s Aging Population 33

34 B.C. Workforce in Goods Sector, 2009 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C. Stats. 34

35 B.C. Workforce in Service Sector, 2009 Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C Stats. 35

36 B.C. Fastest Growing Industries (change in employment, ) Sources: Statistics Canada; B.C. Stats. 36

37 B.C. Fastest Growing Occupation Groups Health occupations (2.6 per cent annually) Trades, Transport and Equipment Operators and Related Occupations (2.3 per cent annually) Natural and Applied Sciences and Related Occupations (2.1 per cent annually) Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook

38 B.C. Regions, Employment Demand/Labour Growth Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook

39 B.C. Labour Demand, Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook

40 B.C. Projected Job Openings, Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook

41 B.C. Change in Labour Supply and Demand ( ) Demand Supply 38,210 29,640 36,660 30,610 33,810 23,430 Occupations with greatest numbers of job openings are: Cleaners; Motor Vehicle and Transit Drivers and Clerical Occupations. Source: B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model

42 B.C. Top Demand Growth Trades-related Occupations Demand Supply 23,660 16,42016,770 9,850 13,790 11,550 Highest demand growth: Carpenters and Cabinetmakers; Chefs and Cooks; Electrical Trades and Telecom Occupations. Source: B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model

43 B.C. Change in Labour Supply and Demand ( ) Demand Supply 17,670 15,36015,280 12,500 8,360 7,000 Additional supply for “top growth” occupations will not meet the increase in demand over the next ten years. Demand Source: B.C. Labour Market Scenario Model

44 B.C. Labour Market Outlook Key Challenges B.C. will need to increase the size of its workforce, and ensure it has the right skills to support economic development. Ambitious gains in participation rates and attracting more skilled immigrants are vital—but more is needed to meet demand. Improving human capital to raise productivity is imperative. 44

45 Employer Succession Challenge Retirement of baby boomers will create business owner shortages that threaten the very existence of SMEs—so integral to the survival of rural B.C. Today, 7 of 10 small business are owned by baby boomers; more than half are age 55+ and hope to retire within 5 years. Next 3 decades will see a staggering number of small businesses go up for sale. 45

46 B.C. Labour Market Outlook Key Challenges - Demand 2.4 million people in B.C.’s labour force. 1,126,000 job openings are expected for the province from 2009 to 2019 – equal to 47 per cent of the current labour force. Approx. 60 per cent of job openings will be due to replacement demand, 40 per cent will be due to expansion. 46

47 Replacement: 676,000 additional jobs will be vacant due to retirements and deaths. Expansion: employment is expected to grow by 1.8 per cent annually to 2019 – creating 450,000 new jobs. Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook

48 B.C. Labour Market Outlook Key Challenges - Supply Only 650,000 young people in K-12 system today – growth in job openings will outpace the number of workers required to support economic growth. Number of new entrants is expected to decline over the outlook, averaging a drop of 0.4 per cent annually. 48

49 B.C. Labour Force Growth (average annual growth) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada 49

50 Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. B.C. Employment/Labour Growth (ave. annual per cent change) 50

51 B.C. Labour Force Participation Rate ( , per cent) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 51

52 B.C. Immigration Drives L.F. Growth Source: B.C. Stats

53 B.C. Labour Productivity (per cent change, compound annual growth) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 53

54 B.C. Education Requirements Source: B.C. Labour Market Outlook Over the next decade, 77 per cent of all jobs will require some post-secondary education. 54

55 Human Capital Improving human capital is essential to productivity, competitiveness, and performance of our organizations and communities. Human Capital is one of three key drivers of productivity and organizational performance. Others are financial capital and physical capital – machinery and equipment. Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 55

56 Canada’s productivity performance is falling relative to other nations, partly due to our labour and skills shortages. Skills shortages often (not always) result from labour shortages in workplaces. Skills shortages also due to gaps, mismatches and obsolescence, as sectors and nature of work changes. Human Capital and Productivity 56

57 Productivity Drivers Source: The Conference Board of Canada Firm-Specific Factors Business & Policy Environment Global Forces Physical capital Human capital Innovation Trade liberalization World commodity price changes Political eventsOther global events Industrial structure Product/Service Mix Size of firm Degree of competition Openness to trade and investment Clusters/Urbanization Class of workers Foreign ownership 57

58 Innovation Innovation is a key to productivity gains—so hire for it, develop people for it, and reward it—create a corporate culture to promote it. New products and services can add value to increase revenues and profit per hour worked by employees. Process, incremental innovations that improve customer experience also improve productivity and the bottom line. 58

59 Improve Productivity for Growth 59

60 The Contribution of Learning and Skills to Business Performance Sources: Institute for Employment Studies, University of Sussex. 60

61 B.C. Labour Market System 61

62 1.Accessible and reliable labour market information to help guide investments and decision-making. 2.Policy and regulations that provide a quality working environment to support workers. Elements of B.C. Labour Market System 62

63 3.Coordinated network of organizations that support connections between workers and employers, and workers with training; and 4.Responsive education/training system that meets provincial & regional economic needs. Elements of B.C. Labour Market System 63

64 Meta-Strategies for Addressing Labour Shortages 1.Increase expertise, skills of workforce by providing more post-secondary education and training to the already employed. 2. Increase supply of workers by attracting international and interprovincial migrants. 3.Increase supply of workers by making more effective use of under-represented populations. 64

65 Expand the Skilled Talent Pool: Focus on Under-represented Populations 1.Older workers – 65 years+ 2.Immigrants 3.Women – years 4.Disengaged youth – years 5.Aboriginal Peoples 6.People with disabilities 65

66 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 1. Older Workers Employing strategies that target older workers, will help close skills gap, e.g.: –Reduce incentives for early retirement; –Encourage later and flexible retirement; –Legislation to counter age discrimination; –Help older workers find/keep jobs and ‘re-skill’for late-career transitions. 66

67 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 2. Immigrants Immigrants and internationally educated talent boost economy: –Generate innovation and creativity; –Add skilled workers to labour force; –Enrich our global economic perspective; and –Provide connections to foreign markets. 67

68 Immigrants are Good for Business Immigrants are an important source of population and labour market growth. Overall, net migration to B.C. is expected to remain in 50-60,000 range through to Immigration should be sustained and increased with careful targeting of skills; provincial nominee programs and special programs for grad students can help. 68

69 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 3. Women Women: 50.5 per cent of B.C. population. The labour force participation rate gap with men is 10 per cent. Women earn less: Can. women working full time, full year in 2008: $44,700 versus $62,600 for men—gap of 28.7 per cent. Women under-represented in science and tech at university and in related careers. 69

70 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 4. Disengaged Youth Cutting HS drop-out rate and increasing post-secondary completion can help. High impact from targeting “youth-at- risk”: drop outs, in alternate education programs, Aboriginal, disabilities, or combinations of these. Retaining to HS graduation will increase flow into more advanced workforce prep. 70

71 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 5. Aboriginals 2006: 196,000 Aboriginals in B.C., 4.8 per cent of prov. population; one-quarter of population (55,250) is <15. Aboriginal pop. lags non-Aboriginal pop. in education: 2007: 35 per cent of Aboriginals, (not still studying), had not completed a HS or PSE credential–– vs. 21 per cent of non-Aboriginal youth. 71

72 High Aboriginal Unemployment Rates Aboriginal unemployment rate of 16.1 per cent in 2009, more than twice unemployment rate for non-Aboriginals. Participation rate in labour force is about 12 per cent lower for Aborig. men and 13 per cent lower for Aborig. women compared to non-Aboriginals. Providing skills training and labour market integration support is key. 72

73 Harnessing Valuable Talent: 6. Persons with Disabilities 355,430 working-age persons with disabilities in B.C. – many want to work and have excellent skills and talents. Their employment rate is only 59 per cent. Number of disabled workers will increase as aging workers experience disabling health problems—many should be retained or brought into workforce. 73 Sources: B.C. Stats, 2006 PALS survey.

74 B.C. recognizes the need to solve the labour force skills gap that threatens the province’s future economic growth. It has identified the major elements of a labour force strategy—to attract immigrants and nurture the skills of B.C.’s people—that will build the capacity B.C. requires to sustain economic growth. There is no single solution! Implementing a Strategy for Growth 74

75 Implementing a Strategy for Growth Implementing a sustained skills strategy for growth should be seen as an investment— not a ‘cost’. This investment takes time to bear fruit—it is crucial to implement ASAP. Business, educators, communities, indivs. all have major roles to play in partnership with gov’t.—ongoing collaboration on labour market solutions is the best way to make possible the future everyone wants! 75

76 Increase participation of under-represented and under-utilized people within B.C. – and get all British Columbians skills they need to be successful in the labour market. Attract top talent from around the world where gaps in workers and skills arise. Improve innovation to enhance productivity by continuing to support human capital development. Three Key Labour Market Priorities for B.C. 76


Download ppt "Www.conferenceboard.ca Overview of British Columbia’s Economy and Labour Market: Challenges and Opportunities Dr. Michael Bloom Vice-President, Organizational."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google