Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Europe: the uneven recovery* Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw School of Economics Visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution Hoover Presentation, October 14, 20011.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Europe: the uneven recovery* Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw School of Economics Visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution Hoover Presentation, October 14, 20011."— Presentation transcript:

1 Europe: the uneven recovery* Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw School of Economics Visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution Hoover Presentation, October 14, * in preparing this presentation I was assisted by Aleksander Łaszek

2 Plan of the Presentation 1.Convergence-divergence in Europe, The boom years, The slowdown (recession), The recovery, Some final observations Two groups of countries considered: Developed Europe (DE) Emerging Europe (EE)

3 1. Convergence - divergence in Europe,

4 4 Figure 1. GDP growth in Europe: , ,

5 Figure 2. Economic growth in Europe,

6 2. The boom years,

7 Figure 3. GDP growth,

8 Table 1. Public spending /GDP Source: IMF WEO IX 2011

9 Table 2. Fiscal deficit (surplus)/GDP Source: IMF WEO IX 2011

10 Table 3. Public debt /GDP Source: IMF WEO IX 2011

11 Table 4. Current account deficit (surplus)/GDP Source: IMF WEO IX 2011

12 Table 5. Domestic credit to the private sector /GDP Source: WB WDI online

13 Figure 4. Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing

14 3. The slowdown (recession),

15 Figure 5. GDP growth in Europe,

16 4. The recovery,

17 Figure 6. GDP growth in Europe and

18 Figure 7. Unemployment in Europe and

19 Figure 8. Inflation in Europe and

20 Figure 9. Harmonized long-term interest rates, Sept. 2009, 2010 and 2011

21 Figure 10. Unit Labour Costs in Manufacturing

22 Figure 11. GDP growth: PIIGS vs. BLLE (Bulgaria, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia)

23 Figure 12. ULC in Manufacturing: Greece, Italy and Spain* vs. BLLE

24 Figure 13. Public debt: PIIGS vs. BLLE

25 Figure 14. Fiscal deficit: PIIGS vs. BLLE

26 Figure 15. Public spending: PIIGS vs. BLLE

27 Figure 16. Current account: PIIGS vs. BLLE

28 5. Some final observations

29 1.Large variation in both DE and EE regarding all key aspects of the economic performance: Europe defies easy generalizations! 2.Most countries (both DE and EE) which experienced growth problems during registered huge fiscal and/or private sector’s credit booms, as well as large increases in ULC in manufacturing, during

30 3. The recession was accompanied by the increases in fiscal deficits. However, the size of these increase was not strictly related to the magnitude of the recession. 4. The unemployment in DE in , displayed very different dynamics, which was not strictly related to that of GDP 5. Despite recession there was no sign of deflation and recovery has been accompanied by the accerelation of inflation in DE (not so much in EE)

31 6. BLLE have on average adjusted much better than PIIGS. Within PIIGS Ireland and Spain have performed so far much better than Greece and Portugal. 7. The example of BLLE and Ireland shows that countries can adjust via internal devaluation even after huge shocks.


Download ppt "Europe: the uneven recovery* Leszek Balcerowicz Warsaw School of Economics Visiting fellow at The Hoover Institution Hoover Presentation, October 14, 20011."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google