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Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge: The D.C. Perspective Presentation to COG TPB CAC June 9, 2005.

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Presentation on theme: "Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge: The D.C. Perspective Presentation to COG TPB CAC June 9, 2005."— Presentation transcript:

1 Confronting the Regional Land Use and Transportation Challenge: The D.C. Perspective Presentation to COG TPB CAC June 9, 2005

2 Overview DC’s changing role in the region Where we are today Where we are headed Why the COG forecasts concern the District Other approaches and ideas The Comp Plan as a vehicle for guiding change

3 DC’s Changing Role Land AreaPopulation District67570,000 Region3,0204,900,000

4 50 Years of Regional Expansion 1950 2000 Population Share

5 50 Years of Regional Expansion 1950 2000 Employment Share

6 Dynamics of Population Change 802,178 572,059

7 DC has the same number of households today as it had in 1960, but with 200,000 fewer residents 2.72 2.16 Household size has declined consistently since 1960 Between 1980 and 2000, number of households dropped by 4,800 but number of residents dropped by 66,000 Small households in, large households out Today, 44% of all DC households are single people Households Household Size

8 Change has Been Uneven Clusters that lost population Clusters that lost > 15 percent of their residents Population Change, 1980-2000

9 Change has Been Uneven

10 Change in concentrated poverty rate, 1990-2000 By 2000, poverty became more concentrated in DC than it was in 1990---counter to national trends.

11 Change has Been Uneven education incomeemployment

12 Growing More Inclusively Increasing Access to Education and Employment Creating Successful Neighborhoods Connecting the City

13 The Transportation Benefits of a Strong Center 37% of DC households don’t own a car 38% use public transit to get to work (2 nd in nation, after NYC) 12% walk to work (2 nd in nation, after Boston) Average journey to work is 29.7 minutes 70% of those traveling to Metro walk to the station; 15% use the bus Urban land use pattern is efficient from a transportation perspective

14 Facing the Future: Why DC Must Grow  Fiscal Imbalance: 53 percent of the city’s land area is non-taxable 2/3 of the income earned in the city is exempt from local income taxes  Regional environmental benefits associated with maintaining a strong center  Growth provides critical mass for additional retail and other services  Unmet housing needs and affordability issues But… Emphasis is on retaining existing residents Attract/retain families as well as singles/couples Don’t compromise neighborhood character or overburden infrastructure

15 Facing the Future: DC’s Forecasts 200520102015202020252030 Population 577.5608.7642.0672.6702.4712.2 Households 252.0265.3280.7292.9304.4308.9 Jobs 742.9783.6816.7830.0845.0860.0 (in thousands)

16 Trouble with the Regional Forecasts Inner ring counties approach housing “buildout” around 2020 but keep adding jobs through 2030 Overall, jobs grow at 3 times the rate of households between 2020-2030 Examples: Fairfax County projects an additional 72,000 jobs during the 2020s, but only 2,800 more households. Montgomery County projects 55,000 more jobs during the 2020s, but only 15,000 more households. Prince Georges County projects 88,000 more jobs during this period, and only 23,000 households.

17 Trouble with the Regional Forecasts Shortfall of as many as 487,000 housing units projected by COG is unacceptable to the District. Would result in: Traffic congestion Urban sprawl and open space loss Environmental impacts, especially air/water quality Affordable housing Central City decline Forecasts provide an opportunity for a regional dialogue on key issues

18 Other Approaches and Ideas DC is relatively small and reached buildout in 1950, yet we have identified the capacity for 60,000 new units For five decades, all growth has occurred through infill and redevelopment This is about the same number of units to be added by PG County (485 Sq Mi), Montgomery County (496 Sq Mi), or Fairfax County (396 Sq Mi) between 2005-2030 How can built out jurisdictions accommodate more households?

19 Home Again Restores vacant and abandoned units # of vacant and abandoned units in DC has declined from 6,500 in 1999 to 1,650 today

20 New Neighborhoods Ten “underdeveloped” sites with the capacity for 16,000 new units Hope VI replaces public housing with mixed income

21 New Communities Targets crime “hot spots” and at-risk public housing Provides 1:1 replacement of subsidized housing units, while adding market rate units Creates mixed income neighborhoods Five pilot sites identified, with potential to expand Total 3,000-5,000 new units in first five years

22 Great Streets Focuses development along corridors, coupled with investment in streetscape, transportation, economic incentives

23 The “Living” Downtown More than 5,000 units to be added, primarily in the Mt Vernon Triangle and NY/ NOMA areas

24 Promoting Infill About 600 acres of vacant land Potential for 11,000 additional units under current zoning Vacant Land by Zoning

25 Strategic Redevelopment At least 10,000 units of additional capacity exists on commercially zoned land with improvement value well below land value Much of this land is around Metro stations, and along key corridors

26 Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan General Provisions 10 Citywide Elements Ward Plans Economic Development Housing Environmental Protection Transportation Public Facilities Urban Design Preservation and Historic Features Downtown Human Services Land Use The existing Comprehensive Plan document is 664 pages long and contains no tables, maps, or graphics Did you know that…

27 Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan November 2003: More than 3,000 participants attended Citizen Summit III February 2004: More than 2,000 residents participated in eight Ward Summits

28 Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan –Collect and analyze baseline data –Resolve Plan format and structure issues –Complete Policy Audit –Formulate revised policies and actions –Revise the Land Use Map –Assess Plan impacts –Prepare Draft Plan (1/06) –Adoption (6/06) Community Input and Outreach

29 Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan Website: 28-member Citizens Task Force Citywide public workshops (Jan 2005, Sep 2005, Jan 2006) ANC briefings/ direct outreach to ANCs Outreach to interest groups, citizen/civic associations Press releases/ media liaison Interagency Working Group Small Group Discussions Public hearings

30 Guiding Change: DC’s Comp Plan New format, easier to read and navigate Graphics and maps to be incorporated New “elements” to be added (parks, arts, etc.) Goals, policies, and actions to be more clearly defined Accountability and implementation to be vastly improved Emphasis on long-range planning—not operations Three Vision “themes” to be interwoven

31 Ideas for Other Jurisdictions Take stock of underutilized land Focus on commercial and industrially zoned areas Consider rezoning employment-generating land to housing Public education and outreach regarding the issues at hand

32 Questions? 442-7630 442-8708

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