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The politics of postindustrial welfare states Explaining cross-national variation in the adaptation to new social risks Giuliano Bonoli
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 2 | The late 2000s: a new « consensus » for the welfare state The 2000s have seen the emergence of a new « consensus » on social policy It puts emphasis on “social investment” Defended by international organisations, and, within countries, different political forces Countries have moved in this direction, but at a different speed and with different results
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 3 | Uneven progress towards the new welfare state Nordic welfare states have been considerably more successful in adapting the social investment model Continental European welfare states are lagging behind Puzzle: why, in spite of the strong consensus on the social investment model, is progress uneven?
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 4 | Examples of old and new social policies Old -Pensions -Survivors benefits -Short term unemployment benefits -Sickness benefits -Invalidity benefits New -Active labour market policies -In work benefits -Child care services -Family benefits -Parental leave
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 5 | It is justified to distinguish between two sorts of social policies, because: 1.They constitute responses to different social transformations (industrialisation/ postindustrialisation) 2.They have different objectives (decommodification/ labour market participation) 3.They target different groups 4.Why not?
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 6 | How do we explain divergence? Politics: Social vs. Christian democracy Vs. Liberals The relative timing of postindustrialisation, ageing and welfare state maturation Left power with economic openness The influence of women
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 7 | Spending on old and new polices as a % of GDP, averages 1997-2001 Source: OECD SOCX 2004
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 8 | The timing of key postindustrial developments in 18 OECD countries Source: Based on OECD Statistical compendium
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 9 | Relationship between the average benchmark year and spending on new social risk polices, 1997-2001 Source: Based on OECD Statistical compendium
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 10 | Alternative explanations 1: the strength of the left Source: OECD SOCX and Armingeon et al. CPDS
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 11 | Alternative explanation 2: the strength of the Christian democrats Source: OECD SOCX and Armingeon et al. CPDS
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 12 | Alternative explanation 3: Catholicism Source: OECD SOCX and www.adherents.com
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 13 | Competing explanations: correlation matrix Source: see previous slides
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 14 | Alternative explanation: catching up Increase in spending on the new polices in the 1990s and spending in 1987-1991
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 15 | Unpacking the timing hypothesis: a crowding out effect It is not time per se that matters, but the different configurations of variables that one finds at different points in time This can be conceptualised as a crowding out effect We can expect spending on old policies at time t to impact on spending on new policies at time t+ 1 We need to control for total social expenditure
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 16 | Pooled time series analysis of spending on childcare and ALMPs ALMPs: spending data 1981-2003 * 21 OECD countries, time t Childcare: spending data 1996-2003 * 23 OECD countries, time t IV: strength of the Left, Christian democracy, trade openness, proportion of women in parliament, spending on old age (+ controls), at time t-1
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 17 | Prais-Winsten Regression of spending on ALMPs, 1981-2003. Model 2Model 3 Left parties -0.0050**-0.0021 Religious parties 0.0039**0.0016 Trade openness 0.00180.0023* Left parties * trade open. 0.00011**0.0000 Spending on old age -0.0564*** Public social expenditure 0.0727*** Unemployment rate 0.0187**-0.0013 p.c. GDP in PPP (1000) 0.0002-0.0001 Common Rho 0.840.76 R-square 0.090.33 N 404380 Source: G. Bonoli, The Political Economy of Activation, Lausanne, IDHEAP, Working paper No. 1/2008, available on www.idheap.ch/pswww.idheap.ch/ps
| ©IDHEAP – email@example.com | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 18 | Prais-Winsten Regression of spending on family services, 1998-2003. Model (1)Model (2) Female employment rate.009***.014*** Left parties in parliament.006**.001 Religious parties-.007***-.012*** Women in parliament.023***.009*** Spending on old age--.040*** Public social expenditures-.095*** Common Rho.737.647 R-square.51.70 N138
| ©IDHEAP – firstname.lastname@example.org | | 01/05/2015 | | Diapositive 19 | Conclusions ? We clearly need a multicausal explanation to account for the divergence Timing matters, through an institution-induced crowding out effect Politics also matters. But we need a more complex understanding of politics. Left parties are not identical across countries Need to focus on new cleavages (gender, age)
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