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 “The production process appears simply as an unavoidable middle term, a necessary evil for the purpose of money-making. (This explains why all nations.

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Presentation on theme: " “The production process appears simply as an unavoidable middle term, a necessary evil for the purpose of money-making. (This explains why all nations."— Presentation transcript:

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2  “The production process appears simply as an unavoidable middle term, a necessary evil for the purpose of money-making. (This explains why all nations characterized by the capitalist mode of production are periodically seized by fits of giddiness in which they try to accomplish the money-making without the mediation of the production process.)”(Capital Vol.2) ---Karl Marx

3 Recent Development of World Capitalism and its Crisis ZHU Andong Tsinghua University, Beijing 2014.11.7 VII South-South Institute. Bangkok “Inequality, Democracy and Development under Neoliberalism and Beyond”

4 Recent Development of World Capitalism and its Crisis  “Stag-bubble” is emerging  Economic recovery is weak and uneven  Financial bubble is developed  Direct reason: fiscal and monetary policies  Underlying reason: the control of financial capital  Future of the world

5 “Stag-bubble” is emerging  Economic recovery is weak and uneven  Financial bubble is developed

6 Economic recovery is weak and uneven GDP Growth Rate (%)GDP per capita in 2013 ( 2007=100 ) * 2003~200720092010~2013 World 3.7-2.12.9 High income Countries 2.9-3.51.9 Euro Area 2.2-4.50.6 Low- &Middle income Countries 7.33.25.9 Argentina8.70.15.4120.5 Brazil4.0-0.33.4113.7 China11.79.28.8162.7 India8.88.56.7134.9 Russia7.5-7.83.4109.7 South Africa4.8-1.52.8105.1 France2.0-3.11.097.6 Germany1.7-5.12.1106.3 Japan1.8-5.51.8100.7 UK3.3-5.21.294.3 USA2.9-2.82.3101.0

7  The number of unemployed around the world is estimated to have reached 201.8 million in 2013. There were 31.8 million more unemployed persons around the world in 2013 than in 2007, prior to the onset of the global economic crisis. 23 mn discouraged workers.  the crisis-related global jobs gap, measuring the number of jobs lost in comparison to pre-crisis trends, widened further to 62 million workers in 2013.

8 US Unemployment Rate U3 is the official unemployment rate. U6 includes discouraged workers and all other marginally attached workers and those workers who are part-time purely for economic reasons

9 Poverty in the Developed World  US:  In 2013, there were 45.3 million people in poverty. For the third consecutive year, the number of people in poverty at the national level was not statistically different from the previous year’s estimate.  The 2013 poverty rate was 2.0 percentage points higher than in 2007, the year before the most recent recession.  --US Census Bureau  Europe:  17.0 % of the population in the EU-28 in 2012 were at-risk-of-poverty after social transfers.(25.9% before transfer).  --Eurostat

10 Financial bubble is developed  Bubble in real estate markets  Bubble in stock markets

11 Real Estate Bubble Source: IMF Global Housing Watch

12 S & P 500 Index: 1950.1.3~2014.10.21

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15 NYSE Index: 1950.1.3~2014.7.11

16 FTSE100 Index: 1984.1.3~2014.8.5

17 Nikkei 225 (^N225) –Osaka:1986.1.4~2014.8.5

18 CAC 40–France:1990.3.1~2014.8.5

19 GDAXI–Germany:1990.11.26~2014.8.5

20 KOSPI—Korea:1997.7.1~2014.8.5

21 (^MXX)-Mexico:1991.11.8~2014.8.5

22 MERVAL Index-Argentina:1996.10.8~2014.8.5

23 Stock Index in Some Economies Stock Index Pre-crisis height : A Lowest During Crisis 2014.10.24 : B B/A(%) USA NYSE Composite10312422610583103 S&P50015656771965126 Dow Jones Industrial Average 14165654716805119 Nasdaq285912694484157 UK FTSE10067323512638995 Germany GDAXI810636668988111 South Korea KOSPI Composite Index 2065939192693 Mexico IPC (^MXX)328361689143666133 Argentina MERVAL BUENOS AIRES (^MERV) -Buenos Aires 235182910556 449 France CAC4061682519412967 Japan Nikkei 225 (^N225)1826270551529284 HongKong HANG SENG INDEX (^HSI) -HKSE 31638110162330274 Russia RTSI INDEX (RTS.RS)2360498103744 Brazil IBOVESPA - (^BVSP) - Sao Paolo 73517294355194171

24 S&P500 Price-Earnings Ratio (CAPE, P/E10) : 1881.1~2014.10 Source : Robert J. Shiller’s website

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26 global debt

27 World debt(% of GDP) Advanced economiesEmerging economiesworld Global total* househ olds Non- financia l firms General govern ment househ olds Non- financia l firms General govern ment househ olds Non- financi al firms Genera l govern ment 2007106.782.590.477.122.558.038.266.981.9366.9 2010131.380.892.5105.427.173.447.463.786.4587.0 2013150.475.291.7111.930.891.843.459.191.7287.1 *trillion USD

28 Public Debt of Advanced Economies(% of GDP): 1880-2011 Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook ( 2012.10 )

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30 Source: IMF October 2014 Fiscal Monitor "Back to Work—How Fiscal Policy Can Help"

31 External Debt of Some Advanced Economies (% of GDP) 200320042005200620072008200920102011 Japan 3133 354146414753 USA 63717584969799100103 Italy 969594113120104121119107 Germany 137138129145154141155160150 Spain 111118119146160146174166153 Greece 106111110126149148183182160 France 128139143169187172197201180 UK 291306324378400345433421410 Euro Area 106119112121122109 Source: World Bank

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33 Policy Rate of USA, UK, Japan and Euro Area : 2007.1.1-2014.6.6 Source : BIS 2013/14 Annual Report USA Euro Area

34 Total Asset of the Central Banks in the Euro Area, USA, UK and Japan : 2006.12.25-2014.6.2 ( 2007=100 ) 资料来源:国际清算银行 2013/14 年报

35 Reserve Balance of FED (bn $) 2002.12.182007.1.32012.6.72014.10.29 Assets 720.8875.9995.64486.7 U.S. Treasury securities629.4778.9479.82420.3 Federal agency debt securities0.0 39.7 Mortgage-backed securities0.0 1717.8 Liabilities 703.3845.3954.34430.3 Deposits24.926.5106.12931.3 Total capital 17.530.641.356.5 Leverage ratio 41.228.624.179.4 source: Federal Reserve H. 4. 1 Weekly Statistical Release

36 What Will the AEs do?  Expansionary Fiscal Policy : Public Debt High, hard to increase Tax, Ideological difficulty  Expansionary Monetary Policy : Bigger Bubble  Contractionary Monetary Policy : Bubble Burst, Another Crisis  Then What?

37 World debt(% of GDP) Advanced economiesEmerging economiesworld Global total* househ olds Non- financia l firms General govern ment househ olds Non- financia l firms General govern ment househ olds Non- financi al firms Genera l govern ment 2007106.782.590.477.122.558.038.266.981.9366.9 2010131.380.892.5105.427.173.447.463.786.4587.0 2013150.475.291.7111.930.891.843.459.191.7287.1 *trillion USD

38 Class struggle, class war, socialism, capitalism 数据来源: google ngram

39 Recent Development of World Capitalism and its Crisis  “Stag-bubble” is emerging  Economic recovery is weak and uneven  Financial bubble is developed  Direct reason: fiscal and monetary policies in AEs  Underlying reason: the control of financial capital  Future of the world

40 Financial Capital is Powerful  In 2013 , the 6 biggest US Banks’s assets worth 9.6 Tr. USD , equivalent to 57% of US GDP 。

41 Table S8.3. Top income composition in France and in the USA (series used for figures 8.3-8.4, 8.9-8.10 et S8.1-S8.2) France 1932 France 2005 Labor income Capital income Mixed income Labor income Capital income Mixed income P90-9577.8%13.1%9.1%88.0%5.0%7.0% P95-9967.8%17.0%15.2%77.6%8.2%14.1% P99-99.546.7%29.9%23.3%60.1%15.1%24.8% P99.5-99.936.3%38.6%25.1%47.8%22.4%29.8% P99.9-99.9922.6%49.9%27.5%36.6%37.5%26.0% P99.99-10013.7%63.9%22.4%27.1%57.9%15.1% USA 1929 (a)USA 2007 (a) Labor income Capital income Mixed income Labor income Capital income Mixed income P90-9558.1%22.7%19.3%85.2%9.1%5.7% P95-9953.0%26.8%20.2%73.9%15.0%11.1% P99-99.537.9%39.5%22.7%59.5%23.2%17.3% P99.5-99.928.0%55.3%16.7%44.4%33.1%22.5% P99.9-99.9914.1%74.1%11.8%30.2%49.4%20.5% P99.99-1004.0%86.5%9.5%16.8%70.6%12.6% Source: Thomas Piketty, Capital in the 21 st century

42 America is an oligarchy, not a democracy or republic  Two US Scholars studies 1,779 US policies between 1981 and 2002, and conclude:  “The central point that emerges from our research is that economic elites and organized groups representing business interests have substantial independent impacts on U.S. government policy, while mass-based interest groups and average citizens have little or no independent influence,”  “When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites and/or with organized interests, they generally lose.”  ----Martin Gilens and Benjamin I. Page, Testing Theories of American Politics: Elites, Interest Groups, and Average Citizens

43 The Quiet Coup  The crash has laid bare many unpleasant truths about the United States. One of the most alarming, says a former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, is that the finance industry has effectively captured our government—a state of affairs that more typically describes emerging markets, and is at the center of many emerging-market crises. If the IMF’s staff could speak freely about the U.S., it would tell us what it tells all countries in this situation: recovery will fail unless we break the financial oligarchy that is blocking essential reform. And if we are to prevent a true depression, we’re running out of time.  But there’s a deeper and more disturbing similarity: elite business interests— financiers, in the case of the U.S.—played a central role in creating the crisis, making ever-larger gambles, with the implicit backing of the government, until the inevitable collapse. More alarming, they are now using their influence to prevent precisely the sorts of reforms that are needed, and fast, to pull the economy out of its nosedive. The government seems helpless, or unwilling, to act against them.  ----Simon Johnson , The Quiet Coup, The Atlantic Monthly , May 2009,

44 Money will talk more  In January 2010, the US Supreme Court overturn a 20- year-old Supreme Court ruling that barred corporations from spending freely to support or oppose candidate.  President Obama called it “a major victory for big oil, Wall Street banks, health insurance companies and the other powerful interests that marshal their power every day in Washington to drown out the voices of everyday Americans.”  In April 2014, the US Supreme Court ruled that limits on the total amount of money donors can give to all candidates, committees and political parties are unconstitutional.

45 金融 垄 断 资 本在 继续统 治  金融 资 本不 仅 在上世 纪 八九十年代逐步减除了各种管制 , 而且能 让 各国政府在危机 爆 发时 及 时 出手用公共 资 金救助大型金融机构 , 从而 让 自身力量避免遭受重大打 击, 在危机中和危机之后 继续 支配着政治 进 程 。 在 这 种情况下 , 金融 资 本肆意妄 为, 完 全不 顾 社会影响 , 在危机之中就大肆 给 金融机构的高管 们发 放巨 额 工 资奖 金 。 金融 危机 过 后 , 金融 资 本 继续让 各国政府采取各种有利于自身的政策 。 事 实 上 , 多德 — 弗 兰 克法案自从提出以后 , 金融 资 本一直想尽 办 法 进 行抵制 , 虽然最 终 国会通 过 了 , 但在 实 施 过 程中金融 资 本仍然在不断 进 行抵制 , 甚至鼓 动 各种力量 试图 推翻 这 个法 案 。  在危机之后 , 金融 资 本的 垄 断性更强了 , 力量 变 得更强大了 。 到 2013 年 , 美国最大 的 6 家 银 行 拥 有美国金融系 统 67% 的 资产, 其 资产 与 2008 年相比上升了 37% 。 同 时, 金融也的利 润继续远远 超 过 制造 业, 占到美国企 业 部 门 利 润 的 40% 以上 。

46 The future  Financial capitalism : Stagnation, crisis and chaos, etc.  Industrial capitalism: possibility  Socialism: depends on the working class


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