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An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 1 State of the Youth Market Mr. Kevin D. Lyman Demographer, USAAC-CAR U.S. Army.

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Presentation on theme: "An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 1 State of the Youth Market Mr. Kevin D. Lyman Demographer, USAAC-CAR U.S. Army."— Presentation transcript:

1 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 1 State of the Youth Market Mr. Kevin D. Lyman Demographer, USAAC-CAR U.S. Army Accessions Command First Handshake to First Unit of Assignment An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve

2 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 2 Interesting “Facts” about this year’s College Freshmen They were born in They were 6 years old when the Persian Gulf war was fought. They have known only one Pope. They do not remember the Cold War. They do not remember the Space Shuttle blowing up. Tianamen Square means nothing to them. AIDS has always been around. They think bottle caps have always been screw-off and plastic - they don’t know what a pop-top is. Atari predates them. “You sound like a broken record” means nothing to them. They have never owned a record player, never played Pac-Man, and have never heard of Pong. They have never seen an 8-Track tape. They never had a TV with only 13 channels, never seen a black-&-white TV, and always had cable and a remote. They have always had a VCR, but don’t know what BETA is. They have never seen Larry Bird play. They don’t know Americans were held hostage in Iran. They don’t know who Mork is or where he’s from. They have never heard “Where’s the beef?” They don’t know who JR is or that he was shot. They think Kansas, Chicago, Boston, and America are places not groups.

3 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 3 Agenda General Recruiting Environment –Economic, Political, Social, Educational –Demographics –Psychographics (Attitudes) Competitive Situation –DoD, College, Industry Specific Market/Production Assessments –Caucasian, Hispanic, African-American

4 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 4 Mild recession (2001) plus Sept. 11th caused U.S. Economy to slow-down. Youth unemployment for 2001 increased by over 2% from Near term: Weaker youth labor market with higher unemployment (highest Youth Unemployment since 1997, but remains relatively low). Job Security: This is the first economic downturn that the current youth cohort has experienced; therefore, youth / college markets may value job security more highly when looking for employment. But some reports & surveys indicate that these markets are not aware of the recession. Expected Economic Recovery - benefits nation, however many studies (Rand, Early- Warning System) indicate that there is a lag in effect when it comes to recruiting. Economic Environment Monthly Youth (16-19 year old) Unemployment Rate Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Dept. of Labor 15.7% 17.7% 11.9%

5 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command Trends/Current Conditions/Projections/Assessments: Veteran Representation among Politicians and in the population as a whole is declining. Congressional Support for a Stronger Military: Has increased as a result of the attacks of and the War on Terror. However, may be tenuous when it comes to Iraq. FY03 Budget: Bush administration requesting a 14% increase in spending, the largest increase in 20 yrs. Political Environment Congressional Representation (Veteran) Total Veteran Population (Millions) Year 01 Source: VA

6 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 6 Social Environment Since 9-11, public confidence in the military at highest level. Expect high level for at least as long as public support of war is high. 5 motion pictures + 3 new TV series with positive military focus - impacts positively on Youth’s opinion/perception of the Army (helps offset the “Full Metal Jacket” view). Public support of Army / propensity historically decline as hostilities lengthen and success / validity of the campaign is questioned - especially if a large number of casualties occur. People generally respect those who serve in the military, but are not inclined to join the military. Source: Harris Interactive Post-Somalia Reagan Re-elected Desert Storm War on Terror Source: Official Movie Web Sites Trends/Current Conditions/ Projections/Assessments:

7 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 7 Trends/Current Conditions/ Projections/Assessments: Increasing numbers of funding opportunities (from both private sector and government) for college-bound youth - but more in the form of Loans. College continuation rates remain high, but have likely peaked/stabilized - over 63% of graduating high school seniors continue to college in the fall. But, College stop-out rates/volume also remain high/stable - highest rates at 2-yr institutions (over 48%); largest volumes at 4 yr. institutions. Educational Environment Peaked in ‘97

8 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 8 Trends/Current Conditions/ Projections/Assessments: Total Target Pop Size: 19.7M yr olds; and 27.2M yr olds. Gender Breakout: Just over 50% of the youth pop is female. 2006: yr old pop will increase by.8M (+4%); yr old pop will increase by 2.1M (+8%). Demographics Target Populations '98'00'02'04'06'08' yrs22-29 yrs Source: Woods & Poole Prime Market Population Population in Millions

9 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 9 Youth Pop Growth: Population is growing; however, more youth are continuing to college and military propensity among them is declining. Qualified and Propensed Segment: Population increase won’t necessarily create a larger pool of qualified and propensed applicants. Male vs. Female “Prime Market”: Female PM is larger - higher med/moral disqual. and more in college, but fewer non-HSDG/

10 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 10 Racial / Ethnic Youth Breakout: Caucasian = 65.4%; Hispanic =15.3%; African-American = 14.3%; API = 4.1%; Native-Americans =.9% 5 yr Projection: Hispanic pop will exhibit strong growth both in numbers and proportion; Afr. Americans and APIs will show slight growth in numbers and proportion; Caucasians will decline in proportion (-3.2%) Projection: Caucasians will account for less than 50% of youth - as a result there will be no clear majority market. Ethnic Segmentation Youth Population Projections 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35, Population (In Thousands) Native American API African- American Hispanic Caucasian 65.4%64.6%62.2% 15.3% 15.9% 17.4% 14.3% 14.2% 14.8% 4.1% 4.3% 4.7% 0.9% 1.0% 0.9% Youth Age Years

11 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 11 Military vs Civilian Jobs Note: “More Important” = over 70% of total sample said the job attribute was “extremely” or “very” important. Knowledge of correct association of valued job attribute with military or civilian job can help target advertising --as can knowledge of lack of military association with valid and valued attribute. Source: DoD Youth Poll, Oct-Nov 2001 Having a job with good pay & allows you to live comfortably Have a job where you decide how your tasks will be carried out 71% More Important AND Not Associated More Important AND Associated with a Civilian Job Personal freedom Interesting job, not routine 86% More Important AND Associated with the Military Develop self discipline 79% Developing leadership skills 77% Job security 87% No sexual discrimination Working with people you respect Getting money for education 76% Earn respect of important people in your life Do something you can be proud of 90% 94% No racial discrimination 88% 96% 89% Be mentally challenged 76% 89% 85% Learning a valuable trade or skill 76% Experiences that prepare you for a career 89% “More Important” Attribute Set

12 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 12 #1 Barrier: College/Higher Education. Overall better choice (personally and professionally). Way to have fun + Better prepares them for the future. Army will cause them to miss out on the college experience. Youth have a general mistrust of politicians, government officials, and the military. Youth are concerned about “losing themselves” in the military (losing their independence, and sacrificing their morality). Youth want to do something good for their futures, while having fun. They don’t believe the Army will be fun (or offer enough “good stuff” to offset lack of fun). Believe Army would limit their ability to live life to the fullest. Youth Barriers Source: Barriers to Army Enlistment study, 2001 Total of 12 focus groups and a survey of year old men

13 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 13 35% of youth discussed military service with someone other than a recruiter: –Mothers (57%) –Fathers (55%) –Friend(s) (50%). Fathers tend to be the most encouraging. Friends are more encouraging than mothers. Of those who enlisted in the Army, 23% indicated that their Parents (mothers and fathers equally) are the most supportive and Friends are the least supportive. Influencers Source: DoD Youth Poll. Trends follow YATS, show little change since 1996, and should continue. When making decisions, youth tend to look to their parents for advice and appear to weigh the advice of their parents over that of their peers.

14 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 14 Overall decline in propensity since the 1970s. “Definitely Will” has remained stable, but “Definitely Won’t” has increased dramatically (at the expense of those who indicate either “probably will” or “probably won’t” serve). Caucasian propensity increased 13% following 9-11 and may remain nearly as high as Afr. Amer. Propensity for at least the first part of FY03. Afr. Amer. propensity declined 4% over the same period. It is difficult to estimate long-term effects of the War on Terror. However, as it continues, anticipate a decline in propensity to pre-war levels. Propensity (“Definitely” or “Probably” will join) Source: Monitoring the Future (Men) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% '76'77'78'79'80'81'82'83'84'85'86'87'88'89'90'91'92'93'94'95'96'97'98'99' Definitely Won’t Probably Won’t Probably Will Definitely Will “Definitely Not” Serve avg. Increased >8% since 1991 Spiked after Desert Storm Propensity for Active Duty Service (Men, Years Old) * Methodology differences in DoD Youth Polls make Hispanic results unreliable. 3d YP Wave matches YATS, both included non-citizens.

15 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 15 Propensity (Continued) African-Americans and Hispanics: Tend to join the army for pragmatic reasons (job/skills training). Caucasians: Tangible reasons are important, but Caucasians are also most likely to include intangible reasons when considering the Army (duty to country).

16 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 16 TV = #1 Means of reaching youth (nearly 59% of teens rely on TV to keep informed). Males: Fox = favorite network (57%); MTV = close second (52%). Females: MTV = favorite network (61%); Fox = second (50%). –Non-cable networks: Fox dominates with “The Simpsons,” “That 70’s Show,” and “Malcom in the Middle.” –ABC: “Whose Line is it Anyway” and “The Drew Carey Show” have made ABC the #2 non-cable network among the youth pop. –African-American youth’s top shows: Disney’s “The Famous Jet Jackson” and BET’s “106 and Park”. –Hispanic youth’s top shows: “The Simpsons” (even more so than Caucasians) and “Friends”. Media Habits Source: TRU ‘01, which reflects what youth say they watch / prefer, not necessarily what they actually watch.

17 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 17 Radio = #2 Means of reaching Youth. –Overall favorite format: Current hits, hip-hop/rap (#2), alternative (#3). Country music places 5th in popularity overall. –Caucasian youth: Favor Country & Classic Rock more so than minority youth. –African-American and Hispanic youth: Favor hip-hop/rap and R&B. Magazines: Traditionally most effective with females. –Female favorites: Seventeen, YM, and Teen. –Male favorites: Sports Illustrated, ESPN, and Gamepro, however, new comer Maxim is gaining popularity. Internet: #3 for Males (ahead of magazines); #4 for Females (after magazines) –Main usage (youth): , research for school, and music. –Favorite web site: Yahoo is favorite for males and females. –Caucasians utilize the web significantly more than minority youth. Media Habits (Continued)

18 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 18 Youth Self-View Optimistic –9 in 10 say they are “Happy,” “confident,” and “positive” –Decreasing worry about violence, sex, or drugs –Suicide rates falling –Believe growing up easier for them then their parents Team Players –Gravitating to group activities –Believe “Selfishness” is a major cause of problems in the country –Believe in their own collective power Accept Authority –Identify with their parents’ (current) values –Trust and feel close to their parents –Half believe that a lack of parental discipline is a major social problem –Majority favor tougher rules against misbehavior in the classroom and society at large Follow Rules –Declining youth crime, teen pregnancy, and abortion rates Source: Millennials Rising.

19 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 19 Competitive Situation (DoD) Recruiting remains highly competitive. –Navy projecting FY03 Accession mission decrease to 48,000 (-7,500). –Air Force has steadily increased recruiter strength (Navy may reduce up to 500 by FY03). –Army has more College Fund incentives options, but is losing competitive edge in terms of overall enlistment incentives. –Other services continue to benefit from their higher propensity. The Army led market penetration in the GA Market with 41.1% share YTD (June) FY02 and overall market position improvement. –DoD, as a whole, shifted emphasis from the Senior market.

20 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 20 Competitive Situation (College, Industry) College remains option of choice for graduating high school seniors and is the largest barrier for service in the Active Army for the youth market. Industry remains as a significant competitor with regard to pay and benefits. The military does have an advantageous “vacation” package (30 days’ leave). Uniformed Services (Army, Navy, Marine Corps, Coast Guard) –Money for College, College Credits Earned thru MOS or Tuition Assistance –Global Assignments –Housing / Transportation –Uniforms & Equipment –CY02 Salary / Cash Bonuses $1043/mth (E1 >4 months) –Job (Full Time Soldier) –Medical Benefits (Tricare, Dental) –Retirement Benefits / TSP –Annual Leave Industry & Academia (Metropolitan College & UPS Partnership) –Full or Partial Tuition Assist, Advisors and Tutors, Flexible Class Schedules –Work & School Close to Home –Housing / Transportation –Uniforms & Equipment –$8.50 per Hour (Starting)/Bonuses) $1496/mth (22 days/8hrs per day) –Job (UPS Part Time) –100% Paid Medical Benefits –401K Plan (Stock Market) –Paid Vacation & Holidays

21 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 21 Market/Production Assessments Caucasians: Army increased FY02 prod by 4% (largest increase among services). Higher Combat Arms selection rate and higher value of Intangibles. Afr. Americans: Highest CSS selection rate. Highest value of Tangibles. Army decreased FY02 prod by 5.2% (largest decrease among services), but achieved stronger proportion of AA quality. Hispanics: High CSS selection rate. Army achieved increase in FY02 Hispanic production. *Females earn 57.2% of Bach. Degrees Production demographics are showing a return to pre- September 11th levels. 9-11

22 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 22 Overall Production Trends Overall quality is improving. The Army is attracting increased quality recruits (College and I-IIIA). All services experienced production increases in the Caucasian market since September 11th, with the Army experiencing the largest production increase. Quality is improving, yet at a slow rate for minority markets (FY03 I-IIIA goal = 67%).

23 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 23 Demographic Profile: FY02 Applicant Based upon Command Volume contracts X Total Contracts: 106,992 X Male (79.7%) X White (64.7%) X African Am (18.1%) X Hispanic (12.7%) X API/Other (4.5%) X Single (84.1%) X Seniors (19.5%) X Average Age: 21.1 yr X Education: 12.1 yr X TSC I-IIIA: 69.8% X Average AFQT: 60.1 X Average GT: X Term: 3.85 yr X CONT. DEP: 3.3 mo Y Contracts: 32,459 X Male (73.0%) X White (61.1%) X African Am (22.3%) X Hispanic (11.8%) X API/Other (4.8%) X Single (73.9%) X Seniors (18.0%) X Average Age: 23.1 yr X Education: yr X TSC I-IIIA: 66.1% X Average AFQT: X Average GT: X Term: 5.31 yr RA USAR

24 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 24 Accession Mission vs. Accessions Achieved Shortfall of 797 in FY98and 6,291 in FY99

25 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 25 Contract Mission vs. Contract Achievement Shortfall of 37.7K in FY97, 29.4K in FY98, & 38.4K in FY99

26 An Army of One Proud to Be Here, Proud to Serve US Army Accessions Command 26 Questions?


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