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III SIGMAT Bijoy Chatt, Ph.D, June 11, 2013 A Balanced Approach of Asset Management – Methods and Tools.

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Presentation on theme: "III SIGMAT Bijoy Chatt, Ph.D, June 11, 2013 A Balanced Approach of Asset Management – Methods and Tools."— Presentation transcript:

1 III SIGMAT Bijoy Chatt, Ph.D, June 11, 2013 A Balanced Approach of Asset Management – Methods and Tools

2 2 KEMA has been serving clients for more than 80 years Covering the entire energy value chain Independent experts to the global energy and utility industry Established in 1927, Arnhem, the Netherlands  Three primary business lines: –Consulting –Testing –Certification  Over 1900 professionals in more than 20 countries  Annual revenue of $300+ million Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc. 2

3 Background: Asset Management  Electric networks are capital-intensive businesses.  A high level of investment is required to provide the asset and infrastructure needed for the system and for the equipment required to sustain and maintain it in a safe and reliable condition.  Asset management is an all-embracing term used to describe the activities undertaken through the life of the asset to achieve stated business objectives. 3

4 4 Asset Management: Balancing Critical Perspectives 4 Financia l Regulatory Safety Asset management includes a diverse range of actions and perspectives that should work synchronously

5 5  Aging infrastructure for many utilities  Maintaining or improving reliability levels  Quality of material and equipment being purchased  Cash and budget pressures  Regulatory uncertainty or transitions  Transformational technologies such as storage, EV’s, etc.  Mergers and acquisitions  Smart Grid – sensors, AMI, communications, back end integration, etc. Industry Trends and Needs

6 6 No Asset Management Partial Asset Management Program No plans for AM program Plans for AM program Build standards for system design & performance Establish company-wide planning and risk- analysis cycles Develop Projects - replacements - O&M - capacity Prioritize capital and O&M projects based on senior leadership input on goals Full Delivery Asset Management Program Customer satisfaction action plan Mature Asset Management The Asset Management Transition Utilize performance metrics to create accountability Design and implement human asset plan Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc. Most Utilities

7 7 7 Reliability and Safety at Optimal Cost Measure Performance Create performance metrics and audit processes to hold managers and vendors accountable. Validate benefits from expenditures for regulators. Rigorous Analysis Drive performance with what data you have today. Prepare for use of massive increase in data from Smart Grid. Reliable Data Obtain full benefit from existing outage technology and human processes. Leverage massive increase in data from Smart Grid. Balanced Approach to Optimum Reliability The Industry Best Practice Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc. 7

8 8 KEMA Asset Management Tools for Optimization 8 Optimized Asset Management ABM AMP CASCADE & CARE DRAKE Transmission Specific Tool

9 9 Equipment Failure and Bathtub Curve  If an equipment survives its early phase (infant mortality phase), it is likely that there is no manufacturing defect  During the useful life period, the equipment’s failure rate tend to be constant  As equipment ends its useful life and enters in to wear out period, its failure rate tends to increase, often exponentially 9

10  Tool– Quantitative methods for predicting future asset performance and end of life based upon historical data and trends  Benefits – More accurate and defendable capital projections to regulators and investors for asset replacements 10 ABM – Asset Based Modeling Asset Replacement Planning Tool Copyright © 2010, KEMA, Inc. 10 Output Showing failure of Equipment over time

11 11

12 Cascade – CARE: Asset Maintenance  CASCADE– Data repository and analysis tools to evaluate maintenance strategies, coupled with a system to ensure the proper execution of those strategies. The output can be used for real time response to emerging problems or the development of long term plans.  CARE interfaces with CASCADE and with database that stores operational data (SCADA, EMS etc.). Provides near-real time operational information.  Benefits – Implementation of optimal maintenance programs 12

13 13 Maintenance Optimization Source – Department of Mechanical Engineering Tokyo The right resources at the right time Focus 20% 100% 13

14 14 Pitfalls of Time Based Maintenance Fail to prevent functional failure Functional Failure Did not interrupt fault current Time P-F Interval Two Breakers – Time Based Maintenance 3 year cycle Breaker “A” Interrupts numerous high current faults Breaker “B” Maintenance Complete 2010 Maintenance Scheduled 2013 Reduced capabilities

15 15 Raw Data (diagnostic tests, on-line monitoring & operational data) Data Collection Raw data and/or condition codes Data Collection Raw data and/or condition codes Analysis via algorithms Analysis via algorithms Alerts Modify sampling rate, further diagnostic testing, data mining, install monitoring Corrective Action: Remove from service Alerts Modify sampling rate, further diagnostic testing, data mining, install monitoring Corrective Action: Remove from service Learn From Corrective Action and data analysis Learn From Corrective Action and data analysis Feedback Loop Empirical Knowledge 15 Cascade – CARE: Asset Maintenance

16 16 Input Output C2H4 has exceeded 50PPM Notify subject matter expert No change in sampling rate Notify subject matter expert No change in sampling rate 2/27/04 C2H4 has exceeded 100 PPM CO has exceed 700 PPM C2H4 has exceeded 100 PPM CO has exceed 700 PPM 11/01/05 Output Notify subject matter expert Sampling rate set to 6 months Notify subject matter expert Sampling rate set to 6 months Ratio of C02/C0 is < 5 Load exceeds 80% of nameplate Ratio of C02/C0 is < 5 Load exceeds 80% of nameplate 6/16/06 Output Notify subject matter expert Request operations to reduce load Initiate data mining exercise Notify subject matter expert Request operations to reduce load Initiate data mining exercise TOA CASCADE 16 Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example

17 17 Input Output H2 has exceeded 100 PPM CH4 has exceeded 120 PPM C2H6 has exceeded 65 PPM H2 has exceeded 100 PPM CH4 has exceeded 120 PPM C2H6 has exceeded 65 PPM Heightened awareness await next DGA results 12/27/05 Output Notify subject matter expert Sampling rate set to 2 months Now that thresholds exceeded ratios will be automatically calculated Notify subject matter expert Sampling rate set to 2 months Now that thresholds exceeded ratios will be automatically calculated Data mining has revealed transformer failed factory DGA TOA CASCADE Input 17 Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example

18 18 Input Output Generation rate of C2H4 exceeds 0.5% per day Notify subject matter expert Resample in 10 days to calculate generation rate Notify subject matter expert Resample in 10 days to calculate generation rate 2/17/06 Notify subject matter expert Plan to install mobile and move unit to repair shop Notify subject matter expert Plan to install mobile and move unit to repair shop Ratio of C2H4/C2H6 >1<4 Ratio CH4/H2 <1 07/02/06 Output TOA CASCADE 18 Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example

19 19 A one time overall assessment of equipment condition at a specific time based on selected parameters to determine CHR number (initial) (historical data) Criticality = location determines safety, environmental, financial, and regulatory consequences. Health = probability of failure based on manufacture quality, operational stress, results of predictive maintenance tests (historical) Risk = Health (probability) x Criticality (consequence) CHR Relative Ranking

20 20 Transformer Watch List View 20 Cascade: Asset Maintenance Example

21 21 Asset Health Condition: CASCADE & CARE 21 Asset Data (Non-real Time) Near Real Time Asset Condition Data Inspection and Test Results Asset Health Report CASCADE Pi DGA, DTA, TOA, Infra Red, Inspection Data CARE

22 22 Equipment Week 1Week 4Week 8Week 12 Action/ Week 16 Action/ Week 20 Transformer #1 Normal Transformer #2 Normal WatchNormal Transformer #3 Normal Transformer #4 Normal Transformer #5 Watch Maint. Order Plan for Retire Transformer #6 Normal Watch Normal Transformer #7 Normal Transformer #8 Normal Transformer #9 Normal Transformer #10 Watch Normal Watch Transformer #11 Normal 22 Quarterly Report: Replacement/Retirement

23 Overall Asset Management Services 23  Asset management strategy and transformation  Substation Automation  Major equipment remaining life assessment  Major asset failure analysis  Asset Spare Strategy  Emergency response planning and audit  Smart Grid technology and impact of EV's  Wind and solar renewable integration  PAS 55 evaluation  Power Quality

24 24 Industry Concern: Aging infrastructure, ability to predict future performance and budgeting needs KEMA Services:  Failure forecasting for asset families to 1) predict replacement needs 2) spares 3) replacement options  Current maintenance and alternative maintenance options and their impact on replacement forecasts.  Actionable asset plans developed to encompass the current and future state for each asset family.  Recent Client: HECO – utility serving in Hawaii Asset Management Transformation

25 25 Industry Concern: Transformers are non-uniformly loaded KEMA Services:  Analyze transformer load data (historical loading)  Current maintenance Plan  Actionable asset plans developed to encompass the current and future state for transformers  Recent Client: WMECO Substation Transformer Management

26 26 Remaining Life Assessment Industry Concern: How much life is remaining in major assets that are critical for reliability or have significant safety and financial implications upon failure KEMA Services:  Testing of oil and other components to determine condition and predict life.  Analysis of history to predict condition.  Recommendations on replacement or life extension strategies. Recent Client: ELMAR (Aruba) station transformer fleet assessment

27 27 Impact of EV’s Industry Concern: Process to serve EV’s, system impact, charging station & rate strategy KEMA Services:  Design new service process  Develop various market penetration scenarios and local impacts down to distribution transformer  Develop ongoing planning tools for EV’s  Design and support of charging station rollout Recent Client: LADWP on development of new service process, strategy, charging station rollout, etc.

28 28 Renewable Integration Industry Concern: Impact of renewables on transmission (wind) and distribution (solar) stability, voltage and power quality KEMA Services:  Renewable interconnection studies for wind on transmission  Modeling impact of high penetration solar on distribution circuit voltage regulation  Mitigation studies for renewables Recent Client: California solar initiative studies.

29 29 Advanced Technology Evaluation Industry Concern: What technologies might transform the electric utility industry in terms of load or changing how capital is deployed KEMA Services:  Comprehensive assessment of various technologies now and in various time horizons  Impact of technologies on load & financial performance  Recent Client: Strategic studies done for senior leadership team of various utilities (APS) that are confidential

30 30 Emergency Response Planning Industry Concern: Having an emergency planning process that can withstand regulatory scrutiny in an audit KEMA Services:  Comprehensive resign of process and plans to respond to emergencies  Concurrent audit of approach and nature of damage during storm restoration Recent Client: Several utilities in Florida and Texas subject to hurricanes

31 A Select List of Clients  Existing - HECO - TECO - Energisa - Toronto Hydro - LADWP - ABRADEE - Light - APS - CEATI  New/Potential - Duke/Progress Energy - Westar Energy - AMEREN - CPS Energy - NYPA - Northeast Utilities - WMECO - AUSGRID - Idaho Power - NV Energy 31

32 32 Question & Answer

33 Appendix

34 34 PAS 55 Industry Concern: Having an objective standard to compare internal asset management with best practices KEMA Services:  Assessment of existing asset management against PAS 55 standards.  PAS 55 implementation plan Recent Client: ENDESA assessment of existing asset management against PAS 55

35 35 Asset Failure Analysis Industry Concern: Understanding the cause of a failure to prevent future failures and defense in regulatory investigations. KEMA Services:  Forensic analysis of failure using in field observations and laboratory testing.  Support of claims against manufacturers Recent Client: Multiple clients across the world but these are normally confidential projects.

36 Some New Offerings of Asset Management Services  Grid Hardening and Resiliency  Asset Life Cycle Cost Management  Equipment Spare Strategy 36

37 Best Practice Developments (Examples of Reliability)  Focus on worst performing circuit mitigation for three years  The 15% worst performing circuits often cause half of overall customer outage  Even if reliability average is improved, focus on worst performing pockets to reduce customer complaints  Dramatically improve the quality of information provided to customers during an outage to reduce complaints  Priorities 1 st control customer complaints 2 nd improve worst performing circuits 3 rd improve worst performing customer pockets 37

38 38 Measure Performance With Clear Metrics

39 39


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