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The Future of HR: What’s Next for the Profession Pamela J. Green, SPHR – VP Membership September 17, 2012 – Burlington, VT
©SHRM 2012 2 Remembering 2006 57% of senior executives and managers say the overall number of employees in their businesses will increase in the next year. --NFI Research, November 2006 The national average increase in base compensation projected for 2007 is 3.8%. --Robert Half International, October 2006 66% of office workers say they have some physical problems as a result of job-related stress or exertion. --Swingline Workspace Tools, November 2006 80.8% of workers predict that there is little or no chance that they will lose their job in the coming year. --Right Management, November 2006
©SHRM 2012 “The problem isn’t that people don’t understand how good things are. It’s that they know, from personal experience, that things really aren’t that good.” – Paul Krugman 3
©SHRM 2012 Today’s Agenda 1) Where we stand today after the recession 2)Fact and Data: what’s driving the need for change? 3)10 Possible Game Changers in the HR Space 4) Potential Solutions 4
©SHRM 2012 Where We Stand Today 5 US Hiring and the economy seem stalled In August, employers added only 96,000 new jobs, but unemployment dropped slightly to 8.1% The August jobs figures raise new questions about the strength of the U.S. economic recovery Projected 2012 US GDP growth of 1.9-2.4% will not be enough to bring down unemployment quickly With low hiring rates continuing in 2012, US HR leaders will need to focus on retaining and developing existing talent, rather than recruiting outside talent
©SHRM 2012 Knowing what’s next: HR has a good story to tell 6 Great companies adapt to change faster than the competition because they know what’s next Because people drive change, no one is a better expert on what’s next than an HR leader Whether it’s the next workplace challenge, the next public policy change, or the next vital research findings, HR leaders know next Moving from a focus on short-term survival to long-term sustainability will be a true test of HR leadership going forward
What’s Driving The Need for Change?
©SHRM 2012 Stressed, distrustful employees 8 Source: Workforce Software, Harris Interactive, Workplace Power Outage Survey, Business Week, Urban Mobility Report, Family and Work Institute, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and New York Times 81% of HR: more tired than ever 80% of medical expenses are stress-related 60% increase in sedentary jobs 40% are sleep-deprived 33% are “chronically overworked” 32% had an increase in workweek 25% nap at work
©SHRM 2012 Low Employee Engagement 9 According to Gallup in their 2011 Employee Engagement Index: Fewer than 30% of the employees surveyed were fully engaged in their work, while 71% were not engaged or were knowingly disengaged costing US businesses $350 billion every year. According to PEW Research, 52% of employees surveyed would rather lose their nose than Facebook. Yet 73% of employers do NO social media training.
©SHRM 2012 Potential for Loss of Intellectual Capital 84% The number of employees that Right Management Reports will be leaving their employers this year! 10
©SHRM 2012 Regulatory Challenges #1 Legal headache for US Businesses: Employment Law Disputes Employers have less than a 48% chance of winning an employment law dispute at trial – even less in California Source: Jury Verdict Research California, Illinois, Massachusetts, and Minnesota top the list of States with the highest number of Wage and Hour Lawsuits. Source: Manpowergroup 11
10 Game Changers in the HR Space
©SHRM 2012 Possible Game Changers in the HR Space New employment legislation Global trends in education Low employee engagement Global demographic shifts Values and attitudes towards work/life balance Women and People of Color: education and workforce participation Improvements in HR technology and Social Media Rising benefit costs Talent needed vs. Talent available Push for more talent innovation and creativity 13
©SHRM 2012 Key Business Questions What are the business implications of certain scenarios for my organization and its strategies? What capabilities do we need to build or acquire? Which competencies will I need to prepare for the future? How difficult will it be for my company to recruit the top talent it will need to compete as the economy recovers during 2011-2015? Do we have strong non-disclosure policies to minimize risk of losing confidential information with departing employees? What legal risks will we face in poaching talent? Do we have the necessary legal expertise to recruit globally? What is the feasibility of implementing some type of flexibility program for our employees? 14
©SHRM 2012 The Best Question What happens if we just do nothing? 15
©SHRM 2012 A. Putting Scenario Planning into Practice The goal of the Scenario Planning model is to enable higher quality strategic thinking among business leaders. Scenario planning is NOT about predicting the absolute future. 1. Develop credible scenarios 2. Then identify success factors or competencies for your organization to flourish in each scenario 1. HR and top management should then focus resources on developing these competencies 17
©SHRM 2012 Four-Scenario Matrix Availability of US Talent Strength of Economy strong weak scarce abundant A weak recovery but abundant talent #4 - A weak recovery and scarce talent #3 - A strong recovery and abundant talent #2 - A strong recovery but scarce talent #1 - A weak recovery but abundant talent 18
©SHRM 2012 B. Introduce Flexibility 19 SHRM Workplace Flexibility in the 21 st Century Survey
©SHRM 2012 C. Implement Strategic Workforce Planning 20 SWP evaluates future critical talent needs through systematic workforce assessment This ability to predict and fill future talent needs is critical as companies move from survival mode to long-term sustainability HR must make the ROI business case to top management for strategic workforce planning HR will need to be creative to implement a strategic workforce planning program with reduced resources and personnel
©SHRM 2012 21 AARP-SHRM free online Workforce Assessment Tool www.aarp.org/workforceassessment
©SHRM 2012 SHRM’s 2005 Scenario Planning Report In 2004 SHRM worked with Decisions Strategies International on a scenario planning project. GOAL: Help HR professionals by allowing them to live in potential scenarios for the future of HR management 2015: Scenarios for the Future of Human Resource Management was published in 2005 22
©SHRM 2012 23 The Outlook for HR Professionals 23 HR was as hard hit as other professions by the downturn Job openings posted on SHRM’s HR Jobs web site in 2011 increased by 70% compared to 2009 HR Manager ranked #3 on CareerCast.com top jobs in 2012 list Also, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics projects an increase of 22% in HR employment by 2018 – compared to a 10.7% increase for all occupations Things are starting to look better
©SHRM 2012 Winners and Losers Losers: Encyclopedia Britanica Blockbuster Hostess Lady GaGa Winners: Deloitte Ryan LLC Zappos SAS 24
©SHRM 2012 25 Email: Pamela.Green@SHRM.org (Please note that these slides are copyrighted material and may only be distributed to an audience at a SHRM speaker presentation. Further distribution is not allowed, except with permission by SHRM.) Thank You
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