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© Datamonitor 1 Global Consumer Trends The 10 mega-trends shaping the future of consumer packaged goods
© Datamonitor 2 Agenda Introduction The 10 mega-trends
© Datamonitor 3 Introduction Why global? Why consumers? Why trends?
© Datamonitor 4 The determinants of consumer behavior LatentApplied Thoughts Actions Values Occasions Attitudes Behaviors.
© Datamonitor 5 Rule #1 Trends last at least 10 years
© Datamonitor 6 Distinguishing between trends and fads FactorTrendsFads What is driving it? Substantive drivers e.g. Demographics Lifestyles Values Technology Transitory factors e.g. Pop culture Celebrities Fashion Media How accessible is it? Accessible to the mainstreamLimited to a target niche How broad is it? Crosses product category and industry boundaries as well as demographic groups Limited to very specific product categories and rarely crosses demographic groups How long it lastsAt least 10 yearsA few seasons at most
© Datamonitor 7 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 8 Age complexity Kids growing up young Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting, thanks to media and marketing Youths aspire to be older: US Youths:Current ageAspired age Sources: Developmental Differences in Children and the Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited
© Datamonitor 9 Age complexity Kidults – adults acting younger Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect a youthful disposition “While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as people have children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller” IJMAC, October 2003 Seniors enjoying a 2 nd youth Wild elderly – retirees who can’t take their age seriously and want to have fun Seniors see themselves as years younger than they actually are Sources: Advertising Age; MORI
© Datamonitor 10 Age complexity Products for kids growing up young –Solero Shots – ‘swigging action’ to mimic adults drinking –Junior Horlicks – adult brand repositioned for children Adults acting younger –Macleans 40+ –Sun Valley String Cheese ‘with real olives’ –L’Angelica Anti-Age tea Ageless marketing –Evian ‘Makes you feel young at heart’ –Weetabix ‘Energy for Everyone’ –Nescafe Energo - a ‘universal’ fortified coffee drink for energizing mind and body
© Datamonitor 11 Rule #2 For every trend there is a counter-trend
© Datamonitor 12 Age complexity Counter-trend: age as identity Some seniors are proud of their age They want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities – the fact that they have ‘mastered the art of living’
© Datamonitor 13 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 14 Gender complexity The feminization of society and men Increasing economic wealth of women Men taking a more active role in parenting Metrosexuality among men –“Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves. Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they want to portray of themselves.” (Brand manager, Parfums Jean Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)
© Datamonitor 15 Gender complexity Counter trend: gender as identity Among men: –Lads’ mags as a backlash to the feminization of society Among women: –Independence from men
© Datamonitor 16 Gender complexity Counter trend: gender as identity Products targeting gender as identity –Nestle Yorkie bar –LUNA bars
© Datamonitor 17 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 18 Lifestage complexity (Millions of Europeans CAGR CAGR living as) Singles % % Couples Without Kids % % Nuclear Families % % Single Parent % % Empty Nesters % % Overall % % Demographic complexity is creating more fragmented family structures across Europe
© Datamonitor 19 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 20 Income complexity High income groups spending on ‘anti-luxury’ Downshifting and simplifying Getting a bargain Spending on needs and not wants
© Datamonitor 21 Income complexity Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget Budget Living Sacrificial consumption
© Datamonitor 22 Income complexity Capitalizing on the increased desire for professionalism –Max Factor – ‘The makeup of makeup artists’ –Orbit Professional chewing gum –Pravek’s Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctors Aspirational products for mid-income consumers –Wolfgang Puck Soups –Frozen Dessert soufflés from the Bistro Garden restaurant
© Datamonitor 23 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 24 Convenience: values and attitudes Fitting in many competing demands on time 83% 60% 40% 35% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% FamilyWorkFriendsLeisureReligion Percentage of global respondents that consider the following to very important in their life Source: World Values Survey
© Datamonitor 25 Convenience: behaviors Multitasking One-stop shopping Consuming on-the-go Top-up shopping Eating light Grazing Last-minute planning Outsourcing Seeking quick fixes Pit-stopping Creating a home from home Compact living
© Datamonitor BreakfastMorning snacking LunchAfternoon snacking DinnerEvening snacking Change in eating occasions per head per year Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe Convenience: behaviors
© Datamonitor 27 Convenience: best practice Easy-to-use –Sotoco’s Spoonty is a ‘tea spoon’ to replace the tea bag –Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowl Space efficient –Coca Cola’s Fridge Pack Vendor –Kirin ‘Tarunama’ Ichiban Shibori On-the-go innovation –Self-heating Hotcan ready meals –Aldo's Pizza Bar – pizza to heat in a cup –Campbell’s Soup At Hand – portable soup –H2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with belt clip
© Datamonitor 28 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 29 Health: values and attitudes Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeing Health awareness and concern is growing Ageing populations mean greater health concerns
© Datamonitor 30 Health: behaviors Exercising Adopting regimes Dieting Seeking nutrition Information seeking Self-medicating De-stressing Acting holistically Seeking total solutions
© Datamonitor 31 Health: behaviors Occasional users Loyal users CAGR 7.8% Natural and organic food and drink consumers in Europe (m) Seeking nutrition
© Datamonitor 32 Health: best practice Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals: –Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the over 50s retain a youthful appearance –Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink with a ‘probiotic straw’ –Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagen –Inneov fermete skin firming tablets –SP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drink –Yakult’s Lemorea anti-hypertension drink –Benecol cholesterol lowering dairy drink
© Datamonitor 33 Health: best practice Better for you food for kids: –Congelados Patitas – drumstick shaped breaded vegetables –McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are cholesterol free Natural health innovation –Frito-Lay ‘Natural’ snacks –Asahi’s Aqua Blue made with deep sea water Total health solutions –Wisdom’s YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight, boosting energy and alertness –Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree – no artificial flavors; 16 essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in protein
© Datamonitor 34 Rule #3 There are rich pickings when products satisfy two or more mega-trends
© Datamonitor 35 Health: crossover trends Health on-the-go Putting healthy products into on-the-go formats –Norwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister –Deli Dashers Salad Bowl –Friesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouch –Jt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitamins in a resealable bottle can
© Datamonitor 36 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 37 Sensory: behaviors Seeking experiences Going to extremes Seeking sensations Exploring new cultures Seeking professionalism Trading up Experimenting Seeking authenticity Not compromizing
© Datamonitor 38 Sensory: best practice New taste sensations –Authentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda ‘micro-brewed’ –Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farms –Novel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavor –Ethnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbs Flavor cues in packaging –Pom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottle
© Datamonitor 39 Sensory: best practice Extreme and intense –Percol Rocket Fuel tea with an ‘explosive caffeine kick’ –Sprite on Fire with an ‘unique burning ginger sensation’ –Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a ‘hot peppery taste’ –Virgin Sours ‘sour soda’ –Herman Goelitz’s Harry Potter ‘yuck flavor sweets’
© Datamonitor 40 Sensory: best practice Interactive sensations –KP Skips with ‘fizz sensation’ that turns tongue yellow –Nestle’s Jambos – lick jam to reveal picture –Sakito Juice Drink ‘Thumb it, punch it, drink it’ Experiential products –L’Occitane ‘holiday scents’ perfume –Crest Whitening Expressions
© Datamonitor 41 Rule #4 Fads – when underpinned by a mega-trend – are a good way to maintain interest
© Datamonitor 42 Sensory: crossover trends Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual dining Fresher, better than quick service restaurants… …but quicker, less formal service than full service Driving growth in the foodservice industry Sensory + Health = Mediterranean diet Has been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960s Considered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of €117bn in Europe
© Datamonitor 43 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 44 Individualism: behaviors Getting rich quick Being exclusive Living alone Being individual Multi-lifestyling Having it your way
© Datamonitor 45 Individualism: best practice Customization innovation –Jones Soda – create your own labels –Coca-Cola’s Style-a-Coke shrink wrap system –Lavazza pod tea bags –FreshDirect offers a customized online shopping experience
© Datamonitor 46 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 47 Homing: values and attitudes The value placed on home and family Increasing importance of the home In the western world there is a growing desire for family life… …although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin America Links between home, family and tradition
© Datamonitor 48 Homing: behaviors Cocooning Pampering Everyday treating Bringing third places home
© Datamonitor 49 Homing: best practice Products that offer ‘at-home third place’ experiences –Kraft Parmesan ‘restaurant-style’ shaker –Pizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarkets –Nichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyo’s famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurant –Heineken Beer Tender
© Datamonitor 50 Homing: best practice Indulgent products for everyday treating –Coca-Cola’s Barq’s Floats is a ‘treat’ not a thirst quencher –Pepsi Vanilla – nostalgic sweet indulgence –Cadbury’s Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredients Innovation in safety –Cloud Juice – water bottled from ‘pure rain’ –Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser – mild, low sodium bottled water “ideal for babies and older people”
© Datamonitor 51 Homing: trend clash The debits and credits consumer Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthy behavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits) Represents a clash between health and indulgence
© Datamonitor 52 Rule #5 If manufacturers cannot straddle two trends, consumers will
© Datamonitor 53 The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexity Income complexity Convenience Health Sensory Individualism Homing Connectivity
© Datamonitor 54 Connectivity: values and attitudes Beyond family and friends… Communities –Community feeling Nations –Ethnocentrism The world –Environmental concerns
© Datamonitor 55 Connectivity: behaviors Being connected Replacing family with friends Being cool Word-of-mouth
© Datamonitor 56 Connectivity: best practice Shareable product innovation –Masterfoods Celebrations –Doritos ‘Friendchips’ –Eat Smart Vegetable Party Tray Products that facilitate connections –Britvic J2O – ‘fit in with alcohol drinkers’ –Molson Twin Label beer – socializing aid on label –P&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crisps Cool packaging –Asymmetric bottle that ‘evokes the fluidity of water’ –Shasta Shotrz in funky ‘shorts’ design and size
© Datamonitor 57 Connectivity: crossover trends Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at home Entertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a. Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a. Product innovations –Fosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasion –Stella Artois Dining Pack –Spa Reine Rolling bottled water
© Datamonitor 58 Conclusions Use the rules 1.Track long-term mega-trends 2.Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trends 3.Find crossovers that combine two or more trends 4.Use fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trends 5.Look for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory
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