3Introduction Why global? Why consumers? Why trends? Why global? World is globalisingIdeas are moving from west to east and also east to westWhy consumer?Successful businesses are obviously rooted in consumer needsLooking at how consumer behaviours are changing is a good way of gauging these needsWhy trends?Trends – particularly mega-trends – have longevityBut the cycle of sub-trends is speeding up
4The determinants of consumer behavior LatentAppliedThoughtsValuesAttitudes.Starting point = values – the latent thoughts that ultimately underlie consumer behaviours.Values are what consumers think about general, abstract concepts such as tradition, religion, families or other important things in life. They are deep-rooted and might only change slowly over time, but at a particular time they do not vary between different situations. They are the common threads in individuals’ lives, as well as for society as a whole. They impact consumer packaged goods only indirectly.These values inform attitudes, which are what people think about specific objects or situations. For example, people might have a pro-snacking or pro-convenience attitude. Attitudes are dynamic and change more quickly over time.Attitudes directly affect consumer behaviour – for example, purchase intentions, frequency of consumption or repeat buying.In a packaged goods context, behaviour is also impacted by potential consumption occasions. For example, drinking on-the-go is a function of attitudes to drinking in public and an increasingly mobile, on-the-move society.ActionsOccasionsBehaviors
5Trends last at least 10 years Rule #1Trends last at least 10 years
6Distinguishing between trends and fads FactorTrendsFadsWhat is driving it?Substantive drivers e.g.DemographicsLifestylesValuesTechnologyTransitory factors e.g.Pop cultureCelebritiesFashionMediaHow accessible is it?Accessible to the mainstreamLimited to a target nicheHow broad is it?Crosses product category and industry boundaries as well as demographic groupsLimited to very specific product categories and rarely crosses demographic groupsHow long it lastsAt least 10 yearsA few seasons at mostTrends reward those companies with differentiated, on-trend strategies.Fads only last long enough to attract investment which is then under-utilised or lost forever.In summary, trends are powerful and verifiable enough to prompt action, whereas fads are merely ideas that capture the imagination.
7The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
8Age complexity Kids growing up young Age-specific psychological states among children are contracting, thanks to media and marketingYouths aspire to be older:US Youths: Current age Aspired ageFirst theme = complexing of childhoodSources: Developmental Differences in Children and the Challenge of Developmental Compression, Cohen and Cahill, International Journal of Advertising and Marketing to Children; Teenage Research Unlimited
9Age complexity Kidults – adults acting younger Contemporary adult attitudes and behaviors increasingly reflect a youthful disposition“While the age gap between generations has never been bigger as people have children later in life, the attitudinal gap has never been smaller” IJMAC, October 2003Seniors enjoying a 2nd youthWild elderly – retirees who can’t take their age seriously and want to have funSeniors see themselves as years younger than they actually areSecond theme = complexing of adulthoodKidultsAdopted teenage fashionsContinuing users of computer games consolesSecond youthIn Europe & America these are people who developed their adult identity in the youth-oriented 1960sMORI’s wild elderlyAspire to be youngerSources: Advertising Age; MORI
10Age complexity Products for kids growing up young Solero Shots – ‘swigging action’ to mimic adults drinkingJunior Horlicks – adult brand repositioned for childrenAdults acting youngerMacleans 40+Sun Valley String Cheese ‘with real olives’L’Angelica Anti-Age teaAgeless marketingEvian ‘Makes you feel young at heart’Weetabix ‘Energy for Everyone’Nescafe Energo - a ‘universal’ fortified coffee drink for energizing mind and bodyKids growing up youngWalls’ Solero Shots = product with greater street-cred – “swiggable” and therefore more grown-up than licking an ice lollyHorlicks in India developed a new way for children to enjoy a previously adult brandAdults acting youngerMacleans 40+ is actually targeted at the 50+ marketKalamata String Cheese by Sun Valley, US, is 'Hand braided with real olives inside” and allows adults to enjoy previously kids-only productA tea launched in Italy by Guaber under the L'Angelica I Te del Benessere name, consists of Anti-Age, green tea with rooibos and elderberryAgeless marketingMore marketers are adopting ageless marketing when the product appeals to a broad spectrum of ages so not alienate other consumersSome high level need states in particular can transcend age differencesEvian “Makes you feel young at heart” – a slogan that effectively taps into the fear of ageing phenomenonWeetabix’s ‘Providing Energy for Everyone’ features advertisements of mature consumers actively enjoying lifeNescafe Energo is a “universal” instant coffee drink from Russia
11For every trend there is a counter-trend Rule #2For every trend there is a counter-trend
12Age complexity Counter-trend: age as identity Some seniors are proud of their ageThey want to demonstrate their superior wisdom and abilities – the fact that they have ‘mastered the art of living’A counter trend to age blurring exists in the form of age as identityMany seniors are proud of their age, wisdom and abilitiesEmphasizes the importance of treating them with respect in marketingAnd offering products that are challenging to use e.g. meal kits rather than ready meals
13The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
14Gender complexity The feminization of society and men Increasing economic wealth of womenMen taking a more active role in parentingMetrosexuality among men“Men have now claimed the right to think and act for themselves. Trendsetters and celebrities have broken stereotypes giving men the freedom and confidence to revolutionize the image that they want to portray of themselves.” (Brand manager, Parfums Jean Paul Gaultier, quoted in Cosmetics International, July 2003)Theme 2 = men are increasingly entering the traditional world of womenIncreasing economic wealth of womenIn Europe, working women earn approximately 85% of men’s incomeIn the US, women’s total earnings are about three-quarters that of men’s and the gap is also narrowingMen taking a more active role in parentingToday, with dual-income households, most couples have daily lives that contain similar experiencesIn the US around 60% of females are working, compared to 43% in 1980 so that US males have to take a more pro-active role in the upbringing of childrenAlso 2 million children in the US are now being cared for at home by fathers rather than mothersMetrosexualityWestern male attitudes to beauty care have changed during the past few years thanks to fashion and celebrity opinion-formersFurthermore, men are now taking increasing responsibility for their personal care purchases and have more opportunities than ever before to be self-expressive in their clothing“America is getting increasingly in touch with its feminine side” (Michael Tchong, trendspotter)Argentina's Society of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery says the number of men getting plastic surgery there has grown by 15% over the last five years
15Gender complexity Counter trend: gender as identity Among men: Lads’ mags as a backlash to the feminization of societyAmong women:Independence from menMonthly lads’ magazines – about drinking, cigars, women, sports etc was likely a backlash to the feminization of societyAlthough these magazines have suffered a decline in recent years they are now undergoing a rebirth – ironically as the weekly format that was the traditional preserve of women’s magazinesAmongst women, there is a trend towards independence from menDelaying or abandoning childbirthWomen-only banks and credit unions in emerging countries
16Gender complexity Counter trend: gender as identity Products targeting gender as identityNestle Yorkie barLUNA barsYorkie re-iterated its male brand values (chunkiness, blue packaging etc.) and generated a sales increase of 30% in 2003Luna bars are cereal bars formulated for women (e.g. with folic acid), with flavours including Chai Tea
17The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
18Lifestage complexityDemographic complexity is creating more fragmented family structures across Europe(Millions of Europeans CAGR CAGR 00-05living as)Singles % %Couples Without Kids % %Nuclear Families % %Single Parent % %Empty Nesters % %Overall % %Family structures have changed as lifestages become increasingly flexible with a sharp decline in those living in nuclear families and growing numbers living alone, not having kids or not getting marriedThe reason for this changeable and no longer rigid lifestage progression is a consequence of demographic complexity as described in the previous sectionsIncreasing desire to defy the ageing processDesire by women to take opportunities in education and the workplaceThese means delays, abandonment or repetition of certain lifestages
19The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
20Income complexity High income groups spending on ‘anti-luxury’ Downshifting and simplifyingGetting a bargainSpending on needs and not wantsConsumers on high incomes are showing tendencies to make purchases that contradict what might be expected of themThis can partly be explained by a move away from materialism to embrace values related to simpler lifestylesIn 1995 the New York Times described a movement that represented a “quiet revolt against the dominant culture of getting and spending” as consumers sought to “give up fast track success for more free time and a lower stress life”While the hardcore of this movement remains in a small minority, its ideas and values have seeped into mainstream cultureThis is creating a middle ground of consumers who display certain behaviors of both conspicuous consumption and simplicity80% of Americans in households with $75K+ enjoy purchases more if they get a bargainAn ethnographic study of Indian consumers by JWT also concluded that “they are seeking better deals and better bargains” because “although people are willing to spend money their expectations of return on all money spent is higher than ever before”Wealthy consumers that believe it is OK to spend a lot on ‘needs’ but not ‘wants’ – this means spending extensively on things like a car or a high-end cooker in a designer kitchen, rather than on jewelryThis is due to a desire to move away from the ‘outdated’ view of conspicuous consumption that was so highly pronounced during the 1980s and instead seek professional quality (though still at a high price tag)
21Income complexity Lower income groups spending on luxury on a budget Budget LivingSacrificial consumptionBudget LivingHelps readers know when to save and when to splurge to create a lifestyle that feels luxurious yet is affordableTargets those who are years old, college educated, with an average household income of $70,000 and who want to save money without compromising on styleSave/splurge = sacrificial consumptionExplains the wearing of clothes from Target mass merchandiser and designer boutiques
22Income complexityCapitalizing on the increased desire for professionalismMax Factor – ‘The makeup of makeup artists’Orbit Professional chewing gumPravek’s Herbal Slimming Tea developed by Ayurvedic doctorsAspirational products for mid-income consumersWolfgang Puck SoupsFrozen Dessert soufflés from the Bistro Garden restaurantMax Factor is tapping into the changing desire amongst higher income groups for professionalism rather than conspicuous consumption through slogans such as “the make up of make-up artists”Orbit Professional – with ‘micro-granules’ for better cleaningPravek Kalp has introduced Herbal Slimming Tea in India. This tea is useful in losing weight, curing constipation, and preventing gas formation and has been developed by a team of Ayurvedic doctors and chemistsWolfgang Puck Soups, from the Los Angeles restaurant / chef of the same name. Pizzas are also available.Frozen Dessert soufflés from the Bistro Garden restaurant, Studio City, California. Soups are also available.
23The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
24Convenience: values and attitudes Fitting in many competing demands on timePercentage of global respondents that consider the following to very important in their life83%60%40%35%27%0%10%20%30%50%70%80%90%FamilyWorkFriendsLeisureReligionThe importance of family & friends, work & increasingly leisureBusyness is not just a work thingThere is a growing need to juggle demands95% of the stress in most Canadians’ lives is a result of time poverty, the most common symptom being the feeling of not possibly being able to accomplish all that has to be doneIn 2003, over 50% of Canadians reported that their stress level had increased over the last yearTask-pressureIn 1990, 48% of European workers felt they worked at very high speeds, rising to 56% in 2000.European commute times are increasing (from 36 minutes per day in 1996 to 38 minutes in 2001)Business Line – Indian people are performing an ever-wider range of tasks each day, such that the time devoted to sleeping is falling.Latin America – increasing speed of change in youth lifestyles – “a manic compulsion of doing things”Time pressure50% of European workforce work more than 40 hours per week, 20% of which are outside the normal 9-5 day35% of the American workforce work more than 50 hours per week (six weeks a year more than 20 years ago)Source: World Values Survey
25Convenience: behaviors MultitaskingOne-stop shoppingConsuming on-the-goTop-up shoppingEating lightGrazingLast-minute planningOutsourcingSeeking quick fixesPit-stoppingCreating a home from homeCompact livingMultitasking – doing two or more things at once to save timeOne-stop shoppingConsuming on-the-go – applying make up on the train, dashboard and desktop dining or kids eating on the way from c-stores rather than at schoolLess planning, more frequencyTop up shopping – c-stores are fast-growing worldwide e.g. Bangkok consumers rate convenience and location over price and shopping environmentEating light mealsGrazing – eating at numerous occasions throughout the day rather than structured mealsAlso last-minute planning – organising appointments, events and holidays at the last possible momentOutsourcingDomestic help e.g. take-away meals, cleaners, manicurists, grocery deliveries, self-storageQuick fixesInstant and ready productsPit-stopping – making pit-stops at home, at work, in the washroom, on-the-goCreating a home from home – travel kits of essential itemsCompact living – micro-flats in good locations, self-storage, space-saving designs (e.g. Coke’s Fridge pack)
26Convenience: behaviors Fragmenting eating occasions across Europe-7.35.4-3.210.6-1.75.5-10-8-6-4-224681012BreakfastMorningsnackingLunchAfternoonDinnerEveningChange in eating occasions per head per year
27Convenience: best practice Easy-to-useSotoco’s Spoonty is a ‘tea spoon’ to replace the tea bagItoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal pan that acts as the heating pan and the bowlSpace efficientCoca Cola’s Fridge Pack VendorKirin ‘Tarunama’ Ichiban ShiboriOn-the-go innovationSelf-heating Hotcan ready mealsAldo's Pizza Bar – pizza to heat in a cupCampbell’s Soup At Hand – portable soupH2O No Gas water in a slim hip flask with belt clipSotoco’s Spoonty is tea in a spoon to replace regular tea bags. The consumer just needs to remove the attached spoon, remove its foil wrapper, add the spoon to boiling water, wait five minutes and stir with the same spoon, launched in France.Japan based Itoham Foods ready meal comes in a disposable metal bowl that is simply placed onto the stove and heated with all ingredients already contained in it for the meal – no need to clean pans afterwardsCoca-Cola’s Fridge Pack is a 12 can pack that makes excellent use of the ‘dead space’ at the back of the fridge with its slim design. The packaging also serves as a gravity-fed vendor by rolling a can to the front of the packKirin ‘Tarunama’ Ichiban Shibori is a draft beer system available in Japan that provides 1.5l of beer and fits into the fridge door – enabling consumers to come home and easily serve themselves a cold, draft lager.UK: Hotcan self heating meals in cans heat in 12 minutesAldo's Pizza Bar: heat pizza in the stand up cup and then remove the top half, leaving bottom half holding the pizza for no messCampbells Soup At Hand, ergonomic, with a sipping lidH20 No Gas – hip flask bottled water with clip launched in UK
28The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
29Health: values and attitudes Greater value is being placed on healthiness and wellbeingHealth awareness and concern is growingAgeing populations mean greater health concernsAgeing populations mean greater health concernsSeniors better understand the link between healthy eating and wellbeingHealth awareness and concern is growingIn % of Europeans are more concerned about their health and well-being compared to a year previously
30Health: behaviors Exercising Adopting regimes Dieting Seeking nutritionInformation seekingSelf-medicatingDe-stressingActing holisticallySeeking total solutionsExercising – keeping an active life to combat sedentary lifestylesAdopting regimes – in eating as well as personal careDieting – ranging from functional dieting with for very specific goals to more general lifestyle dieting to healthy eatingSeeking nutrition – part a) healthy eating; part b) looking after body/hair (e.g. moisturizing and using vitamin fortified creams)Almost 60% of both Europeans and Americans have modified their diet towards more healthy, nutritious products in the last 12 monthsInformation seeking – spending time reading or finding out about provenance and nutrition of food, drinks and even personal care inside and outside of the retail environment – as a response to increasing health interest but also undermined trustSelf-medicating – taking personal responsibility for diagnosing and treating one’s illnessDe-stressing - engaging in specific de-stressing routinesActing holistically – treating health holistically as integrated with other aspects of life rather than in the more scientific and detached way associated with the WestSeeking total solutions – seeking multiple health benefits from individual goods or services – for example low calorie, organic and functional attributes in a single product
31Natural and organic food and drink consumers in Europe (m) Health: behaviorsSeeking nutritionNatural and organic food and drink consumers in Europe (m)Occasional usersLoyal users501001502002503003502002200742.678.0166.7226.3CAGR7.8%
32Health: best practice Functional drinks and cosmeceuticals: Pokka Amino Lemon drink helps the over 50s retain a youthful appearanceOrchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink with a ‘probiotic straw’Kanebo Collagen Suplipet drink with collagenInneov fermete skin firming tabletsSP Marine Super P anti-hypertension drinkYakult’s Lemorea anti-hypertension drinkBenecol cholesterol lowering dairy drinkPokka Amino Lemon combines amino acids and lemon. The product is aimed at mothers in their 50s for overcoming the fear of ageing to retain a more attractive, youthful appearance.Orchard Maid and Addera Probiotic Drink are probiotic dairy drinks that come with a ‘probiotic straw’ – the active cultures are housed in the straw and are only released upon consumption hence ensuring longer life of cultures.Kannebo’s Collagen variant in its new Suplipet series is one of a number of recent collagen based drink launches in Japan targeting at women. The ingredient is essential in maintaining soft, supple skinInnéov Fermeté is a groundbreaking nutra-cosmetics innovation from Nestlé and L’Oreal aimed at women over 40 years old who are concerned about skin firmness following the menopause.SP marine Super P, a FOSHU approved innovation in Japan for people with mild hypertension. Yakults relaxing Lemorea brand has also featured in Asia.Benecol yogurt drink - first ever daily dose cholesterol lowering drink (Emmi, Switzerland)
33Health: best practice Better for you food for kids: Congelados Patitas – drumstick shaped breaded vegetablesMcCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are cholesterol freeNatural health innovationFrito-Lay ‘Natural’ snacksAsahi’s Aqua Blue made with deep sea waterTotal health solutionsWisdom’s YerbaMate Royale natural tea for losing weight, boosting energy and alertnessCampbell's Ignite Frozen Entree – no artificial flavors; 16 essential nutrients; 2 servings of veg; high in proteinCongelados del Plata Patitas Bocaditos available in Argentina, are each shaped like chicken drumsticks and are filled with either corn, spinach, or fish and pumpkin. Touted as being high in iron and vitamins A and C and other minerals.McCain Smiles pre-cooked in a polyunsaturated oil and are cholesterol free (Australia) McCain claims to be 'the first to deliver these products in a healthier oil.'In 2003 Frito-Lay launched its new Natural line of snacks because the company saw “a growing demand for organic snack choices…the natural snacks line brings America’s favorite snack brands to people who enjoy snack foods made from the natural and organic world”.Asahi’s ‘Aqua blue’ is made with deep sea water and contains added DNA and seaweed extracts.YerbaMate Royale launched by Wisdom Natural Brands in the US helps consumers “to Lose weight - Boost energy - Stimulate alertness.' Made with 'certified organic yerbamate with honeyleaf(r) stevia,'Campbell's Ignite Frozen Entree – no artifical flavors; 16 essential nutrients; 2 servings of vegetables; 30g of protein to repair and build muscle (Canada)
34There are rich pickings when products satisfy two or more mega-trends Rule #3There are rich pickings when products satisfy two or more mega-trends
35Health: crossover trends Health on-the-goPutting healthy products into on-the-go formatsNorwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canisterDeli Dashers Salad BowlFriesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable pouchJt Aka Oolong RTD tea enriched with vitamins in a resealable bottle canNorwegian Jake's BackPack Lunch in a canister contains:two low sodium, low saturated fat flatbread wraps;one low fat String Cheese stick;one Stretch Island brand 100 percent Fruit Snack;one Minute Maid brand 100 percent Juice Drink;one Mars Musketeers brand chewy chocolate treat;mayonnaise and mustard packs, a napkin and a hand wipe.Deli Dashers Salad Bowl complete with cutlery in a bowl shaped containerFriesland Breaker yogurt in a resealable, squeezable pouch for eating on the goJt Aka Oolong RTD tea from Japan Tobacco in a bottle-can enriched with vitamins
36The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
37Sensory: behaviors Seeking experiences Going to extremes Seeking sensationsExploring new culturesSeeking professionalismTrading upExperimentingSeeking authenticityNot compromizingSeeking intense experiences – weekend city breaks or going to more immersive experiences such as visiting themed bars or restaurants.Going to extremes – office life during the week vs. extreme sports at weekendsBingeing – over-indulging with activities (such as playing computer games) or substances (drugs, drinks)Seeking sensations – particularly in flavours and fragrances such as buying higher quality specialty products.Exploring new cultures – travelling (particularly long-haul), eating more ethnic food and celebrating other people’s festivals e.g. Cinqo de Mayo and St Patrick’s Day.Seeking professionalism – seeking professional products and advice, such as dietician recommendations or spa treatments.What are some of the common food & drinks themes that we can identify here?Trading up to premium productsExperimenting – trying something new often as a response to boredomSeeking authenticity – consumers searching for more authentic and detailed experiences from their ethnic and exotic consumption – e.g. Catalan wine rather than Spanish wine or Ayurvedic personal care. This includes things such as buying direct from farmers markets.Not compromizing – 80% of Americans are not willing to sacrifice taste for more healthful but less flavorsome foods. In the future more people will not be willing to compromise on emotional benefits as well as functional benefits.
38Sensory: best practice New taste sensationsAuthentic: Steaz Green Tea Soda ‘micro-brewed’Authentic: Farm Route Food Pot Pie from named farmsNovel: Strathmore Still Spring Water in chocolate flavorEthnic: Lurpak with Mediterranean herbsFlavor cues in packagingPom Wonderful juice in pomegranate shaped bottleSteaz Green Tea Soda is ‘micro-brewed’ and made from natural ingredients, replacing high fructose corn syrup with cane sugar. Available in the US in a range of flavors.Farm Route Food meals made with chicken from named farms. Packaging states: “we look for farmers and ranchers who still have a personal connection with their land”Strathmore Still spring Water Chocolate Flavor – this water has a subtle taste of chocolate (Strathmore Water, UK)Lurpak butter sticks in differnet varieties including Med herb versionsPom Wonderful juice available in the US comes in pomegranate shaped glass bottles that give falvor cues as well as being visually pleasing.
39Sensory: best practice Extreme and intensePercol Rocket Fuel tea with an ‘explosive caffeine kick’Sprite on Fire with an ‘unique burning ginger sensation’Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur with a ‘hot peppery taste’Virgin Sours ‘sour soda’Herman Goelitz’s Harry Potter ‘yuck flavor sweets’Food Brands Group’s Percol Rocket Fuel Tea Bags in France said to contain an 'Explosive caffeine kick” plus natural guarana.Sprite on Fire, from Coca-Cola was launched in Hong Kong and has a “unique burning ginger sensation”.UK - Magma Cinnamon Schnapps Liqueur from Allied Domecq is said to have a hot peppery aftertaste. “intensely hot”Virgin Sours from Virgin Cola are sour flavored carbonated drinks: “If you can’t handle them someone else will”.Herman Goelitz’s Harry Potter range contains the ‘yuck factor’ with flavors such as dirt, mustard, horseradish and vomit that can satisfy kids desire for extreme experiences.
40Sensory: best practice Interactive sensationsKP Skips with ‘fizz sensation’ that turns tongue yellowNestle’s Jambos – lick jam to reveal pictureSakito Juice Drink ‘Thumb it, punch it, drink it’Experiential productsL’Occitane ‘holiday scents’ perfumeCrest Whitening ExpressionsKP launched a limited edition of its Skips brand – a food dye that turns the tongue yellow in order to help communicate the 'exciting' fizz experience of the product.Nestlé Rowntree is targeting 7-9 yr old Children in the UK with a new “lickable” biscuit called Jambos.Sakito Juice Drink from Colombia – “Thumb it, punch it, drink it”.L'Occitane Spicy Orange Solid Perfume claims to “infuse the air with a warm, holiday scent” – the idea being to remind consumers of their holidays or get them in the holiday spirit.Crest Whitening Expressions Cinnamon Rush = “bold blast” , Extreme Herbal Mint = “intense rush an invigorating brushing experience”.
41Rule #4Fads – when underpinned by a mega-trend – are a good way to maintain interest
42Sensory: crossover trends Sensory + Convenience = Fast casual diningFresher, better than quick service restaurants……but quicker, less formal service than full serviceDriving growth in the foodservice industrySensory + Health = Mediterranean dietHas been promoted as a healthier alternative to traditional diets since the 1960sConsidered to be tasty as well as healthy, driving it to a value of €117bn in EuropeFast casual is growing at 15-20% per year (3x quick serve and full serve)Meal kits - provide consumers with some convenience + some control over final preparation = higher quality mealEat Smarts Ready-to-Prepare Meal is sold with 'Cooking instructions on back - Fully cooked, cut and de-boned chicken – Fresh Cut Vegetables, chicken & teriyaki sauce - Serves 2” (US)
43The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
44Individualism: behaviors Getting rich quickBeing exclusiveLiving aloneBeing individualMulti-lifestylingHaving it your wayGetting rich quick – the mentality of being self-made and living life as you want to – as seen in interest in the Internet boom, property markets, spread betting, online gaming and litigation culture. This is not just a Anglo-centric view – the value of being self-made is one of the 8 underlying truths behind Indian families and their motivations according to research from JWT in 2003.Being exclusive – with product quality being so good these days, there is an increasing need for people to differentiate themselves by buying prestige goods or access to exclusive places.Living alone – this is one way people can live life as they want to. Ever more people are living alone – 46m in Europe and 27m in the US.Being individual – expressing oneself through clothing or now body art to promote an individual look.Multi-lifestyling – another way of constructing individuality is by having a number of roles that are played out each day / week/ year.Having it your way – seeking personalized goods or services. Some 80% of US restaurant orders are now customized. I think this is an important reason for the popularity of Starbucks et al. This theme also accounts for the ever-increasing number of line extensions catering to specific consumer segments and needs.
45Individualism: best practice Customization innovationJones Soda – create your own labelsCoca-Cola’s Style-a-Coke shrink wrap systemLavazza pod tea bagsFreshDirect offers a customized online shopping experienceHow can you customize?1) Change the product for each person – custom blends of coffee or breakfast cereals etc.There are less costly ways to customize, though.2) Change the presentation of a standard productJones Soda company can change their labels to each buyer’s liking and can even include personal pictures.Coca-Cola’s Style-a-Coke machine. The shrink-wrap system lets them customize bottles with one of four different sleeve designs at no extra cost. Lifestyle themes offered include Chinese Ornament, Batek, Music and Fun.3) Allow the consumer to adapt a standard productLavazza is developing the “pod” (a teabag for coffee) and Espresso Point brewer (a single-serve coffee machine) that enables a variety of coffee styles to be brewed by consumers at home.Sports caps / twist-off lid in one.FreshDirect offers a customized online shopping experience, letting customers decide how thick they want their steaks, or how ripe their tomatoes. There is even an array of prepared foods cooked to one's liking.
46The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
47Homing: values and attitudes The value placed on home and familyIncreasing importance of the homeIn the western world there is a growing desire for family life……although family values have remained strong in Asia and Latin AmericaLinks between home, family and traditionThe increasing importance of the homeMore money – kit, DIY etc.More time – TV, gaming etc.Home means a private retreat to 87% of AmericansThe increasing importance of the familyFragmenting family units, harried lifestyles and nutritional awareness have made parents conscious of spending time with their childrenResearch by RoperASW in 2002 found that:54% of parents worldwide with children under age of 20 say they “have fun with their children” almost every dayIndia tops the list however at 87%US statisticsMen spent half an hour (one fifth) more with their children every day in 1997 compared to 20 years earlier71% of this group would be willing to sacrifice pay for more time with their familyAn increasing proportion would rather stay home and look after their family than go to work (although that may be more a reflection of work than home!)The family is the cornerstone of Latin America’s institutionsDuring 2003 advertisers in Peru have been campaigning on TV for family valuesThere are also corporate implications to this trend: SC Johnson is now describing itself as “a family company”
48Homing: behaviors Cocooning Pampering Everyday treating Bringing third places homeCocooning – building a safe, happy home where one can shut the door, protect oneself from danger and relax.Pampering – indulging in personal care routines such as taking more baths and setting aside time for luxurious personal care routines.Everyday treating – seeking small indulgences as a reward or antidote to stress. There were 120 bn such occasions in Europe last year!Bringing third places home – restaurant quality in the home e.g. draft beer from kegs at home and restaurant branded foods or upgrading home entertainment for cinema experience at homeCreating homely third places – going to gyms, cafes or bookshops as a comfortable environment to be alone or with friends outside of home and work and the stress or problems associated with eitherDownshifting – escaping the rat race to refocus on relationships and simple pleasures in lifeIn 2002, two out of three US adults said that life has become too complicatedSimplifying – simplifying routines, such as shopping for the same things rather than trying something new, or sticking to the same set of websites for your information needs.
49Homing: best practiceProducts that offer ‘at-home third place’ experiencesKraft Parmesan ‘restaurant-style’ shakerPizza Express restaurant pizzas in supermarketsNichirei Beef Stew based on recipes from Tokyo’s famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurantHeineken Beer TenderPizza Express in the UK and Kraft Foods in the US prove that meal solutions and meal components can play an important role in facilitating the cocooning needNichirei Beef Stew launched in Japan is based on recipes from Tokyo’s famous Nihonbashi Taimeiken restaurantBeer Tender from Heineken - The specially designed tap and accompanying keg was piloted in the Swiss market and allows consumer to have their very own professional tap and serving system in their own home (price 279 Euros)
50Homing: best practice Indulgent products for everyday treating Coca-Cola’s Barq’s Floats is a ‘treat’ not a thirst quencherPepsi Vanilla – nostalgic sweet indulgenceCadbury’s Almond Biscotti dream with premium ingredientsInnovation in safetyCloud Juice – water bottled from ‘pure rain’Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser – mild, low sodium bottled water “ideal for babies and older people”Barq’s Floatz is promoted as a treat not a thirst quencher.Pepsi Vanilla: The success of vanilla flavored colas in the US is linked to the nostalgic feel of this flavor which is considered to be akin to that of old-fashioned cream sodas from soda fountains, as well as its sweet indulgence.Cadbury’s Dream launched in New Zealand. The launch of an Almond Biscotti version is designed to appeal to adults through a combination of a luxurious positioning and premium ingredients of a distinct national origin.Cloud Juice is collected and bottled rain from ‘one of the largest, unspoilt expanses of water in the world’ and hence claims superior purity.Meanwhile, Black Forest Pearl Mineralwasser is mild and low sodium mineral water and so “ideal for babies and older people”.
51Homing: trend clash The debits and credits consumer Behavior characterized by moving between periods of unhealthy behavior (debits) to healthy behavior (credits)Represents a clash between health and indulgence
52If manufacturers cannot straddle two trends, consumers will Rule #5If manufacturers cannot straddle two trends, consumers will
53The 10 mega-trends Age complexity Gender complexity Lifestage complexityIncome complexityConvenienceHealthSensoryIndividualismHomingConnectivity
54Connectivity: values and attitudes Beyond family and friends…CommunitiesCommunity feelingNationsEthnocentrismThe worldEnvironmental concernsCommunitiesThe increasing importance of communities – be they local or virtualCorporate schemes to help local people tap into community feeling e.g. Fair Trade programs, Walkers’ Books for SchoolsEthnocentrismSainsbury’s has found produce sells better if there is a picture of the British farmer on displayDanes would rather buy non-organic local produce than imported organic produceRecent shift of many Chinese consumers from buying foreign to preferring local products
55Connectivity: behaviors Being connectedReplacing family with friendsBeing coolWord-of-mouthBeing connected - being in regular and almost constant contact in any location through technology (mobile phones, etc.).Replacing family with friends – making friends your ‘family’ in terms of spending time with them and seeking their support.Being cool – a desire to be seen as cool in the eyes of others. The majority of consumers feel it is important to feel cool in the way they live their life:66% Europeans65% USWord-of-mouth marketing taps consumer desires for trusted recommendations as well as gossip and is being seen as an increasingly controllable and valuable marketing tool
56Connectivity: best practice Shareable product innovationMasterfoods CelebrationsDoritos ‘Friendchips’Eat Smart Vegetable Party TrayProducts that facilitate connectionsBritvic J2O – ‘fit in with alcohol drinkers’Molson Twin Label beer – socializing aid on labelP&G Pringles with Trivia Pursuit printed on crispsCool packagingAsymmetric bottle that ‘evokes the fluidity of water’Shasta Shotrz in funky ‘shorts’ design and sizeDoritos Friendchips target group grazing occasions such as watching videos.Eat Smart Vegetable Party Trays with mini slim carrots, celery, broccoli, tomatos etc and ranch dip (US)Britvic’s J20 provides important social and emotional benefits of allowing consumers to fit in without an alcoholic drink.Molson’s ‘twin-labels’ on its beer act as ice-breakers. There are more than 200 different phrases printed to maintain consumer interest.Procter & Gamble and Hasbro Inc. have agreed to print the popular game's questions directly on Pringles crisps. The game targets youths aged 8 to 12 and features questions geared toward that age group.Ty Nant bottled water is available in a cutting edge asymmetrical PET bottle designed to be unique and different from anything seen before and to create a cool package that “evokes the fluidity of water”Shasta Shortz fizzy drinks are available in humorous, short cans with a bold ‘shorts design’ on them “designed by kids” to offer a cool, funky and unique drink just for kids. Form National Bev. Corp., US.
57Connectivity: crossover trends Connectivity + Homing = Entertaining at homeEntertaining at home occasions in Europe and the US will grow at 1% p.a.Related spending will grow at 3-5% p.a.Product innovationsFosters CoolKeg targets the barbecue occasionStella Artois Dining PackSpa Reine Rolling bottled waterStella Artois has been launched in a ‘dinner-table elegant’ 1ltire bottle so that it can be shared at dinner in the UK.In New Zealand, it has also been launched in a gift pack of 2 glasses and a bottle opener which aims to provide some of the ‘theatre’ of pouring and serving drinks that is commonly associated with wine.The Spa Reine Rolling can be rolled to other diners at the table.
58Conclusions Use the rules Track long-term mega-trends Spot early opportunities amongst counter-trendsFind crossovers that combine two or more trendsUse fads when they allow you to reinterpret mega-trendsLook for unmet needs where consumer behavior is contradictory