1. 1

3. Hurricane Forecast Model

4. Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans

5. Outline History of ENRON Email Corpus –Makeup and Generation –Assumptions Graph construction Time-series analysis 5

6. BLUF Divided the network into time periods Examined the communication between 7 executives Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways) 6

7. ENRON Brief History 1932 - Northern Natural Gas Company, OK 1979 - Reorganized as InterNorth 1985 –Bought Houston Natural Gas –Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON Lied, cheated, swindled Sept. 9, 2001 - Scandal breaks out Dec. 1, 2001 - Filed for bankruptcy 7

8. How bad was it? ENRON – CalPERS venture Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it ENRON has a positive bottom line 8

9. The (really) bottom line 9

10. Cast of Characters – The 7 Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com Chairman, CEOKenneth.Lay@Enron.com Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com Pres., COO, CEOJeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com CFOAndrew.Fastow@Enron.com Richard.Causey@Enron.com CAORichard.Causey@Enron.com Greg.Whalley@Enron.com Pres., COOGreg.Whalley@Enron.com Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com CFOJeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com CFORaymond.Bowen@Enron.com 10

11. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay 123456 1999200020012002 B 11

12. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay 123456 1999200020012002 B 12

13. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Skilling Lay 123456 1999200020012002 B 13

14. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay 123456 1999200020012002 B 14

15. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley 123456 1999200020012002 B 15

16. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley McMahon 123456 1999200020012002 B 16

17. Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley McMahonBowen 123456 1999200020012002 B 17

18. Corpus Makeup 490,209Emails 18

19. Corpus Makeup 490,209Emails 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19

20. Corpus Makeup 490,209Emails 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 20

21. Corpus Makeup 490,209Emails 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 5,703Unique internal addresses 21

22. Corpus Makeup 490,209Emails 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 5,703Unique internal addresses 150Employee’s email folders 22

23. Corpus Makeup Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT) From: pr To: kenneth.lay@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 17:39:14 -0700 (PDT) From: pr To: kenneth.lay@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, j..kean@enron.com, mark.koenig@enron.com, paula.rieker@enron.com, karen.denne@enron.com Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT) From: karen.denne@enron.com To: j..kean@enron.com, pr, mark.koenig@enron.com, jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: Date: Sat, 27 Oct 2001 09:13:59 -0700 (PDT) From: karen.denne@enron.com To: j..kean@enron.com, pr, mark.koenig@enron.com, jeffrey.mcmahon@enron.com, rex.rogers@enron.com, ben.glisan@enron.com, tim.despain@enron.com, ken.lay-@enron.com Cc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Bcc: karen.denne@enron.com, m..schmidt@enron.com Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT) From: john.sherriff@enron.com To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com, john.sherriff@enron.com Subject: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector. Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2001 02:06:41 -0700 (PDT) From: john.sherriff@enron.com To: ken.lay-.chairman.of.the.board@enron.com Cc: mark.frevert@enron.com, greg.whalley@enron.com, london.brown@enron.com, eric.shaw@enron.com, lloyd.wantschek@enron.com, john.sherriff@enron.com Subject: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector. 23

24. Assumptions Strength of relationship based on email Not all email is created equal There are additional interesting people Likely missing emails 24

25. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal-1 Dunham Burton Kaymal-2 25

26. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal-1 Dunham Burton Kaymal-2 26

27. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 27

28. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 28

29. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 29

30. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 30

31. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 31

32. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 32

33. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Burton 33

34. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Burton 34

35. Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 35

36. 199920002001 Jan-Jun 2001 Jul-Sep2001 Oct-Dec2002 Graph Construction 36

37. Period Distribution 37

38. Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 38

39. Graph Analysis Koffi Whelan Fleischmann Kaymal Cipperley Cordell Burton 39

40. Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 40

41. Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 41

42. 42

43. 43

44. 44

45. 45

46. 46

47. 47

48. 48

49. Greg.Whalley@Enron.com 49

50. Kenneth.Lay@Enron.com 50

51. Jeffrey.Skilling@Enron.com 51

52. Richard.Causey@Enron.com 52

53. Jeffrey.McMahon@Enron.com 53

54. Raymond.Bowen@Enron.com 54

55. Andrew.Fastow@Enron.com 55

56. 56

57. JEDI Graph Whalley Lay Skilling CauseyFastow McMahonBowen 57

58. Conclusions You too can analyze a social network Ned has a large server available Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing Nothing deterministic / legally defensible –Good starting point for follow-on investigation Good indicator of missing information Trifecta: Lay, Skilling, and Fastow 58

60. Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 60