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1. Hurricane Forecast Model Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans.

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Presentation on theme: "1. Hurricane Forecast Model Enron Email Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans."— Presentation transcript:

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3 Hurricane Forecast Model

4 Enron Corpus LCDR Matt Tabar LCDR William Evans

5 Outline History of ENRON Corpus –Makeup and Generation –Assumptions Graph construction Time-series analysis 5

6 BLUF Divided the network into time periods Examined the communication between 7 executives Compared the strength of the communications by max-flow interdiction (four ways) 6

7 ENRON Brief History Northern Natural Gas Company, OK Reorganized as InterNorth 1985 –Bought Houston Natural Gas –Moved to Houston, changed name to ENRON Lied, cheated, swindled Sept. 9, Scandal breaks out Dec. 1, Filed for bankruptcy 7

8 How bad was it? ENRON – CalPERS venture Joint Energy Development Investments – JEDI Set up Chewco Investments Ltd. to buy it ENRON has a positive bottom line 8

9 The (really) bottom line 9

10 Cast of Characters – The 7 Chairman, Pres., COO, Pres., 10

11 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay B 11

12 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Lay B 12

13 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Skilling Lay B 13

14 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay B 14

15 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley B 15

16 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley McMahon B 16

17 Time Breakdown CEO COO CFO CAO Block Year Lay Skilling Fastow Causey Skilling Lay Whalley McMahonBowen B 17

18 Corpus Makeup 490,209 s 18

19 Corpus Makeup 490,209 s 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19

20 Corpus Makeup 490,209 s 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 20

21 Corpus Makeup 490,209 s 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 5,703Unique internal addresses 21

22 Corpus Makeup 490,209 s 76,312Unique To: addresses (58% external) 19,479Unique From: addresses 5,703Unique internal addresses 150Employee’s folders 22

23 Corpus Makeup Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct :39: (PDT) From: pr To: Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct :39: (PDT) From: pr To: Subject: Reuters story on Dynegy 3Q earnings We'll get pointed questions related to Europe and broadband thanks to Steve Bergstrom. Suggest we answer that we feel confident that the first mover advantage will give us superior returns in the long run. Message-ID: Date: Sat, 27 Oct :13: (PDT) From: To: pr, Cc: Bcc: Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: Date: Sat, 27 Oct :13: (PDT) From: To: pr, Cc: Bcc: Subject: Saturday Articles Enron taps credit line; stock slides Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct :06: (PDT) From: To: Cc: Subject: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector. Message-ID: Date: Mon, 15 Oct :06: (PDT) From: To: Cc: Subject: Turkish industrialist Nuri Coalkoglu Ken I understand a Turkish industrialist named Nuri ?olakoglu has been in contact with you through Bill Miller and possibly Jerry Giest. Colakoglu is an extremely wealthy and well regarded Turkish industrialist who has aggressively expanded into the Turkish energy sector. 23

24 Assumptions Strength of relationship based on Not all is created equal There are additional interesting people Likely missing s 24

25 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal-1 Dunham Burton Kaymal-2 25

26 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal-1 Dunham Burton Kaymal-2 26

27 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 27

28 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 28

29 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 29

30 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Schramm Ramert Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 30

31 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 31

32 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Dunham Burton 32

33 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Burton 33

34 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Treml Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Young Kaymal Burton 34

35 Graph Construction Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 35

36 Jan-Jun 2001 Jul-Sep2001 Oct-Dec2002 Graph Construction 36

37 Period Distribution 37

38 Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 38

39 Graph Analysis Koffi Whelan Fleischmann Kaymal Cipperley Cordell Burton 39

40 Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 40

41 Graph Analysis Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 41

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57 JEDI Graph Whalley Lay Skilling CauseyFastow McMahonBowen 57

58 Conclusions You too can analyze a social network Ned has a large server available Payoff for pre-GAMS data normalizing Nothing deterministic / legally defensible –Good starting point for follow-on investigation Good indicator of missing information Trifecta: Lay, Skilling, and Fastow 58

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60 Koffi Cordell Whelan Cipperley Fleischmann Kaymal Burton 60


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