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Page 1 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathways for Youth Jonathan Latner Research and Evaluation Analyst 617-727-8158

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Presentation on theme: "Page 1 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathways for Youth Jonathan Latner Research and Evaluation Analyst 617-727-8158"— Presentation transcript:

1 Page 1 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathways for Youth Jonathan Latner Research and Evaluation Analyst

2 Page 2 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

3 Page 3 Massachusetts Employment Trends Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics CES Data, Seasonally Adjusted Data January, 2001 – December, 2007 Employment is recovering from recession, but has not equaled its Peak: Feb, 2001 MA is 1 of 6 states that has not reached pre-recessionary employment numbers

4 Page 4 Do We Have Enough Workers Now? Many people are still seeking work In December ’07, 90,800 fewer jobs than at peak Feb ’01 From 2000 to 2006, virtually no population growth From Q1 ’01 to Q1 ’07: – 71,790 more “unemployed” From 2000 to 2006* 21,100 more working part- time 15,200 more marginally attached –stopped looking for jobs recently: 3,000 more “discouraged” 12,200 more stopped due to family or transportation reasons From 2000 to ,316 more “non-employer” businesses in 2005 compared to 2000 *Note: Based on 12 month averages from Current Population Survey (CPS) Sources: LAUS, Census Projections, and Census Nonemployer Statistics

5 Page 5 Massachusetts Employment by Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, ES Employment

6 Page 6 Massachusetts Employment Tends by Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, ES-202

7 Page 7 Massachusetts Growth projected, (‘000) Massachusetts Projected Employment Growth and Current Job Openings Source: CommCorp Analysis of New England Economic Partnership Data Source: Department of Workforce Development = Net New Jobs in Future Includes Replacement Jobs and New Jobs = Current Hiring Needs Massachusetts Job Vacancies, Q4, 2006 (‘000) Educ. & Health Hotels & Food Other Services ConstructionFinanceGovernment Trade, Trans Information Prof. & Bus. Svcs. Manfg

8 Page 8 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

9 Page 9 Source: Structural Demand Shifts and Potential Labor Supply Responses in the New Century. Prepared for the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Conference on “Labor Supply in the New Century.” David Autor.

10 Page 10 Changes in Real Annual Wages by Percentile of Income Earner, Source: Analysis of Current Population Survey 1990 – 2007 using IPUMS Inflation Adjusted to 2006 Dollars Note: Income from wage and salary jobs for individuals working full time (35 or more hours per week), full year (50 or more weeks per years) who are over the age of 18.

11 Page 11 Source: Economic Policy Institute. Minimum Wage Issue Guide. April, 2007

12 Page 12 Source: How Progressive is the U.S. Federal Tax System? A Historical and International Perspective. Thomas Piketty and Emmanuel Saez. Journal of Economic Perspectives. Winter, 2007.

13 Page 13 Source: The polarization of the U.S. Labor Market. David Autor, Lawrence Katz, and Melissa Kearney. NBER. January, 2006.

14 Page 14 Real Average Wage by Educational Attainment of Full- time, Full-year Massachusetts Workforce Change Less than high school $ 36,540 $ 32,226-12% High school $ 41,590 $ 40,471-3% Some college $ 47,582 $ 46,446-2% Associates degree $ 49,914 $ 49,8060% Bachelors degree $ 63,149 $ 70,67712% Masters degree or better $ 85,628 $ 96,76013% Source: Analysis of 1990 Census and 2006 American Community Survey using IPUMS Note: Income from wage and salary jobs for individuals working full time (35 or more hours per week), full year (50 or more weeks per years) who are over the age of 18.

15 Page 15 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

16 Page 16 What is included in the “Healthcare” sector? Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Ambulatory Care (Outpatient Treatment) Doctor’s Offices Dentist’s Offices Home Care Services Outpatient Care Centers Other Health Practitioners Other Ambulatory Care Services Medical laboratories Hospitals (Inpatient Treatment) General Hospitals Other Hospitals Psychiatric Hospitals Nursing Care Facilities (Care for the Elderly) Nursing Homes Residential Mental Health Facilities Community Care Facilities for the Elderly Other Residential Care Facilities Social Assistance (Social Services) Individual & Family Services Child Day Care Services Vocational Rehabilitation Services Emergency & Other Relief Services

17 Page 17 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages Proportion of Total Massachusetts Workforce Employed by Healthcare Sub-Sector, 2006 Sector 2006 Employment

18 Page 18 Healthcare Industry Group Level Employment (2006) and Trends (2000 – 2006) 2006 EmploymentChange from 2000 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

19 Page 19 Regional Employment in the Healthcare Industry Source: Mass. Department of Workforce Development Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages 2006 Employment

20 Page 20 Regional Structure of the Healthcare Industry Source: Mass. Department of Workforce Development Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages

21 Page 21 Healthcare Occupations Comprise 50% of Healthcare & Social Assistance Sector Source: Mass. Department of Workforce Development Industry – Occupation Crosswalk

22 Page 22 Industry Sectors and Occupations 79% of Healthcare professionals and 81% of Healthcare support occupations work in the Healthcare sector Source: Mass. Department of Workforce Development Industry-Occupation Crosswalk Share (%) of Employees from Major Occupational Groups Working in Healthcare 100% HealthcareProfessionals 79% 5%4% 2% Industry AllOccupationsManagementBusinessFin. Ops. Life, Phy.Soc. ScienceCommunitySocial SvcsEducationHealthcareSupport WorkersBuildingGroundsFood Prep.Office &Admin Healthcare14%9%4%9%60%9%81%11%6%14%Retail Education2%Govt. 8% Admin. Svcs. 4% Total 100% 1%5% Prof. Tech. Svcs. 3%2%

23 Page % Increase Median Salary % of MA Median Salary % of MA All Occupations $32,210100%$37,350100%16% Healthcare Professionals $45,250140%$60,320161%33% Healthcare Support Workers $22,59070%$27,48074%22% Occupational Pay Structure Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Occupational Employment Statistics1

24 Page 24 Age of Healthcare Professionals Source: 2000 Census & 2006 ACS

25 Page 25 Source: 2000 Census Equal Employment Opportunity Tabulation Diversity of Nursing Professionals & Paraprofessionals

26 Page 26 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

27 Page Distribution of the Retail Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Census of Employment & Wages, 2006

28 Page Occupational Distribution – Retail Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics, 2006

29 Page 29 Distribution of Sales Occupations – Retail Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics, 2006

30 Page 30 Median Salary of Sales Occupations – Retail Industry Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Quarterly Occupational Employment Statistics, 2006

31 Page 31 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

32 Page 32 “The rumors of my death are greatly exaggerated!” -- Mark Twain

33 Page 33 Source: Massachusetts Department of Workforce Development, Quarterly Census of Employment & 2006 Selected regions in Massachusetts have 15-19% employment in manufacturing

34 Page 34 Regions that Share Borders Tend to Have the Same Largest Manufacturing Sub-Sector Source: Massachusetts Department of Workforce Development, Quarterly Census of Employment & 2006 Largest (Employment) Manufacturing Sub-Sector by Workforce Investment Area, 2006

35 Page 35 Source: Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States dataset Acquired from the World Institute for Strategic Economic Research (WISER), 1996 and 2006, courtesy of William Lazonick, University of Massachusetts – Lowell Massachusetts exports machinery, medical/surgical instruments, pharmaceuticals and chemicals

36 Page 36 There are more, more educated workers and less, less educated workers in manufacturing 2000 Census PUMS Data, 5% sample 2006 ACS PUMS Data Population aged 25 or older Change in the Educational Distribution of Manufacturing Workers

37 Page 37 MA Source: Executive Office of Labor and Workforce Development Occupational Employment and Wage Industry Staffing Patterns, May, 2005 US Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Industry Specific Occupational Employment & Wage Estimates, May, 2005 Most jobs are production jobs: In Mass. More Engineers, Scientists, Managers Occupational Distribution of Manufacturing in Massachusetts and Nationwide, 2005

38 Page 38 The educational attainment of production workers has increased 2000 Census PUMS Data, 5% sample 2006 ACS PUMS Data Population aged 25 or older Change in the Educational Distribution of Production Workers in Manufacturing

39 Page 39 Manufacturing is the sector with the 6 th highest number of job vacancies Source: Massachusetts Department of Workforce Development, Job Vacancy Survey, Q2, 2007 Massachusetts Vacancies by Sectors, Q2, 2007

40 Page 40 Source: Department of Workforce Development, Job Vacancy Survey, Q2, 2007 Vacancy rate is low: more vacancies provide health benefits than in any other sector Manufacturing Vacancies by Major Occupational Category, Q2, 2007

41 Page 41 Understanding Labor Market Trends and Identifying Career Pathway for Youth Skills Gap Income Inequality Critical Industries –Healthcare –Retail –Manufacturing Hot Jobs

42 Page 42 ComputerComputer Support Specialists FinanceCompliance Officers HealthcareCardiovascular Technologists HealthcareDental Hygienists HealthcareDiagnostic Medical Sonographers HealthcareLicensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses HealthcareRadiologic Technologists and Technicians HealthcareRegistered Nurses HealthcareRespiratory Therapists ManagementFood Service Managers Hot Jobs Source: Crittenton Women’s Union MaintenanceBus and Truck Mechanics and Diesel Engine Specialists MaintenanceHVAC Mechanics and Installers ProductionFirstline Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers ProductionTool and Die Makers ConstructionCarpenters ConstructionPlumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters AdministrativeExecutive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants AdministrativeFrontline Supervisors of Administrative Workers AdministrativeLegal Secretaries AdministrativePostal Service Mail Carriers SalesFrontline Supervisors/Managers of Non-Retail Sales Workers SalesSales Representatives (2) -- Wholesale and Manufacturing, (Technical/Scientific and non-technical/scientific) Products Professional Blue Collar Sales and ServiceAdministrative Protective ServiceCorrectional Officers and Jailers Protective ServiceFirefighters Protective ServicePolice and Sheriff's Patrol Officers Protective Service

43 Page 43 No Shame in My Game – Katherine Newman “…our culture confers honor to those who hold down jobs of any kind over those who are outside of the labor force “Despite odds, job seekers work their networks, turn in applications wherever they find an open door, and take civil service exams in hopes of landing a plum opportunity. “There are competencies involved in these jobs that should be more widely known and more easily built upon as the basis for advancement in the labor market. “It is a long way from first-line management to the point where the ‘real money’ comes their way. “Despite difficulties, the nation’s working poor continue to seek their salvation in the labor market.


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