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Agenda – March 2014 Market Condition -Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00):

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Presentation on theme: "Agenda – March 2014 Market Condition -Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00):"— Presentation transcript:

1 Agenda – March 2014 Market Condition -Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00): Decision Factors in Volatile Markets -Market Trend -Portfolio -Leading Stocks Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies Overall Grade for Stock Checkup Q&A: Specific Stock Review -IBD National Meet-Up Monthly Series: FYI ONLY: LinkLink -Stock Contest: Target April Discussion: Anyone use Google Docs?

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3 Market Trend Guide for how to read the IBD paper (posted in our Files section on Meetup.com): Some possible strategies for distribution day counts: -When any market index accumulates 3-5 distribution days over any 4-5 week period, begin reducing positions -When any market index accumulates 5-6 distribution days over any 4-5 week period, begin reducing positions aggressively and raise cash, especially if there are 4 distribution days within an 8 day period Market Pulse History: -Market Pulse History < 3/23: LinkLink -Market Pulse History > 3/23: LinkLink

4 Portfolio Rules Example of Portfolio Rules (need to have your own): -In general, have a bias for staying in the market and holding your “low average cost” blocks -Maintain a weekly overall portfolio advance/decline % trend -If the portfolio is drawn down by 7.5% from the prior week, sell all of a stock that is trading below the buy price. If the drawdown continues after that trim the least performing stocks first to reduce exposure -If three consecutive failures to the cut-loss-sell-point, then stop buying and figure out what is wrong - you are picking the wrong stocks or buying at the wrong time -Track your ratio of winners to losers (those stocks that had to be sold at a loss). The ratio should be about 3 winners to 1 loser. If your ratio is not near this level you are either picking the wrong stocks or buying at the wrong time -Always move incrementally in the market. Add exposure when you see: 1. a Follow Through Day; 2. Additional accumulation in the indices; 3. Successful breakouts; 4. Indices pushing through resistance; 5. Your initial positions show you a profit

5 Leading Stocks Demonstration of IBD Screen Center: LinkLink -IBD 50, International Leaders, Leading Sector Stocks My Routine (Daily) -Select “Price & Volume” and sort by highest volume 1.Is there institutional buying/selling? 2.What percentage of the stock list? 3.Is high volume activity mostly driving prices up or down? 4.Note movement of specific stocks and stock groups.. any relevance to portfolio holdings? -Sort by Highest to Lowest percentage price change 1.What percent of the stock list is advancing versus declining? 2.How big are the advances and the declines? 3.Note movement of specific stocks and stock groups Sector Rotations -When market is volatile watch for movement to “defense groups” such as utilities and long tenured established companies

6 Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies References for Chart Patterns: Bases -Meetup.com Site: IBD Lesson 3 PDF and PowerPoint: LinkLink -Meetup.com Site: Base Chart Patterns Visuals (Eric’s PowerPoint): Breakout Buy Strategies -Level of conviction in stock (market condition, stock ratings, industry group rank, chart pattern, base count, etc…) -Position Size Scaling: 50% at BP, 35% at (BP+ 1.5%), 15% at (BP+2.5%) -Position Size 100% at any point between BP and BP+5% -If >5% wait for opportunity as many stocks return to their buy points after a breakout -Review specific stock examples for discussion See our Files Section on Meetup.com

7 An Overall Grade for Stock Check-Up Method to get 1 consolidated grade from the multiple ratings in stock checkup: Thank-You Lee Tanner from Petaluma IBD Group! Do a Stock Checkup Grading for all Watch List Stocks: 1 Group Ratings Composite RatingRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= 0.5 EPS RatingRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Relative Strength RatingRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= 0.5 SMR RatingRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Acc/Dist RatingRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= General Market and Industry Group General MarketPortfolio Mgmt - N/A Industry GroupPortfolio Mgmt - N/A 3 Rate Fundamental and Technical Performance Current EarningsRed Dots=1, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Annual EarningsRed Dots=1, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Sales, Margin, ROERed Dots=1, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Price & VolumeRed Dots=1, Yellow Dots= 0.5 Supply & DemandRed Dots=0.5, Yellow Dots= 0 4 Grading System: A Points B Points C Points D Points E> 10.00

8 Agenda – March 2014 Market Condition -Scott O’Neil Webinar Tuesday 3/25 (1:20 – 24:00): Decision Factors in Volatile Markets -Market Trend -Portfolio -Leading Stocks Chart Patterns & Breakout Strategies Overall Grade for Stock Checkup Q&A: Specific Stock Review -IBD National Meet-Up Monthly Series: FYI ONLY: LinkLink -Stock Contest: Target April Discussion: Anyone use Google Docs?


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