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An evaluation of NFL team drafting performance (1991-2001) Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University Statistical Sports Consulting

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Presentation on theme: "An evaluation of NFL team drafting performance (1991-2001) Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University Statistical Sports Consulting"— Presentation transcript:

1 An evaluation of NFL team drafting performance ( ) Michael Schuckers St. Lawrence University Statistical Sports Consulting Thanks to Jim Curro (data entry), Brian Chezum (discussion) 1(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

2 Background NFL Draft Value Pick Chart (VPC) “Created” by Jimmy Johnson c. 1994(?) Loser’s Curse (2005, 2010) Values of players based upon 2 nd contract 2(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

3 Similar work Revised versions of the VPC Pro Football Reference NFL Draft 101 FL_Draft_Trade_Value_Chartjsp 3(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

4 From The Draft by Pete Williams (2006, St. Martin's Press) [Billy] Beane's philosophies were chronicled in the best-selling book "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis. [Rich] McKay [of the Atlanta Falcons] enjoyed the work of Lewis, a fellow Princeton graduate, and admired Beane for going against the grain of the rest of the league. At the same time McKay saw no application to football.. Emphasis is mine 4(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

5 Goals Value draft picks based upon on-field performance Common metric all positions – Limiting – Reasonable? 5(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

6 Data All Picks from Focus on 1 st 256 (2010 draft had 255 selections) Source: Source: measures of players performance 6(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

7 Variables Demographics Year Selected, Round, Team making selection, Player Name, Position, College Selected From Performance (General) Last Year in NFL, Number of 1 st Team All Pro Selection, Pro Bowl Selections, Games Started, Games Played, Career Approximate Value* 7(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

8 Variables Performance Specific – QB Passes Completed, Passes Attempted, Total Passing Yards, Total Passing TDs, Total Interceptions Thrown, Performance Specific – RB Rush Attempts, Rush Yds, Rush TDs, Performance Specific – Receivers Receptions, Receiving Yds, Receiving TD Performance Specific – Defense Tackles, INT, Sacks 8(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

9 Basics N=2853 Position Breakdown DB K KR LB QB RB TE WR DL OL (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

10 Draft Picks by Year Draft n= Draft n=256 10(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

11 NFL Value Pick Chart 11(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

12 Approach Non-parametric Smooth function LOESS in R, degree=2, span =0.5 12(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

13 GENERAL PERFORMANCE MEASURES 13(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

14 Games Played v. Selection 14(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

15 Games Started v. Selection 15(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

16 NFL Value Pick Chart 16(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

17 Pro Bowl v Selection 17(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

18 Probability of Pro Bowl 18(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

19 All Pro 1 st Team v Selection 19(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

20 Career Approximate Value Source: Pro-football-reference.com 20(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

21 SPECIFIC PERFORMANCE MEASURES 21(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

22 QUARTERBACKS 22(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

23 QB’s – Passing Yards 23(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

24 QBs – Passing TDs 24(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

25 QBs- Passes Completed 25(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

26 NFL Value Pick Chart 26(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

27 RUNNING BACKS 27(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

28 RB’s Rushing Yards 28(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

29 RBs -- Rushing TDs 29(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

30 NFL Value Pick Chart 30(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

31 WIDE RECEIVERS 31(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

32 WRs Receptions 32(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

33 WRs – Receiving Yards 33(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

34 WRs Receiving TDs 34(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

35 NFL Value Pick Chart 35(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

36 TIGHT ENDS 36(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

37 TE’s –Receiving Yards 37(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

38 TE’s – Receiving TD’s 38(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

39 NFL Value Pick Chart 39(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

40 OFFENSIVE LINEMAN 40(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

41 41(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

42 DEFENSIVE PLAYERS 42(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

43 DL’s-- Sacks 43(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

44 DL’s -- Tackles 44(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

45 LB’s -- Tackles 45(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

46 LB’s -- Interceptions 46(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

47 DB’s -- Interceptions 47(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

48 Summary Current VPC seems not to agree with performance based metrics/decline of VPC too steep Metrics (GS, CarAV, G, Position metric – {LB Ints, QB’s} ) seem to have similar pattern Pro Bowl metrics seem to be steeper Bumps likely due to samples size (QB’s, TE’s) ?? GS vs GS + PB – GS simpler – GS more similar to position level performance 48(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

49 Games Started as Value (Equal Sum) 49(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

50 Games Started by Offensive Position 50(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

51 Games Started by Defensive Position 51(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

52 Limitations Changes over time Active players Edge behavior/Monotonicity Other revenue sources (jerseys, tickets, etc.) Value on getting need 52(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

53 An Alternative to the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Based upon Player Performance M. Schuckers (to appear, 2011?) Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports 53(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

54 BEST/WORST PICKS ( ) 54(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

55 Assessing an Individual Pick Performance based upon Value over Expectation Z-score for each pick GS=Games Started M GS = Predicted Games Started from Loess S GS = Smoothed Standard Deviation from Raw Mean 55(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

56 SD(GS) vs Selection 56(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

57 Evaluation of Teams Only players through Selection 256 Couple of Methods: 1.Sum of Z-scores over all years ( ) 2.Median of Yearly Sum ( ) 3.Best Single Drafts by Sum ( ) 57(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

58 GS by Year (mean GS=36.5) 58 Draft Year Total Games Played Players Still ActiveSum Z (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

59 Win Pct ( ) Best: Denver0.648 Green Bay0.642 Pittsburgh0.623 New England0.608 Kansas City0.580 Worst: Browns0.320 Cardinals0.341 Detroit0.381 Cincinnati0.386 New Orleans (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

60 60(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

61 Total Standardized Draft Quality Best Green Bay22.83 Titans18.41 Pittsburgh17.46 Tampa Bay11.92 Colts11.01 Worst San Diego New Orleans Philadelphia Washington-9.90 Chicago (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

62 62(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

63 63(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

64 Median Yearly Standardized GS Best: Green Bay3.06 Pittsburgh1.88 Titans1.30 Miami1.19 Detroit1.15 Worst: Kansas City-2.40 Cincinnati-2.01 San Diego-1.97 New Orleans-1.81 New England (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

65 65(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

66 Evaluation of Teams 66(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

67 5 Best/Worst NFL Drafts Best Dallas 1993 Titans 1991 Kansas City 1996 Pittsburgh 1996 New England 1995 Worst Browns 2000 Detroit 1997 Philadelphia 1992 Dallas (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

68 Best: Dallas 1993 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Kevin Williams WR Darrin Smith LB Mike Middleton DB Derrick Lassic RB Ron Stone G Barry Minter LB Brock Marion DB Dave Thomas DB Reggie Givens LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

69 Best: Titans 1991 (picks less than 256) Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Mike Dumas DB Darryll Lewis DB John Flannery G Steve Jackson DB Kevin Donnalley G David Rocker DT Marcus Robertson DB Gary Wellman WR Kyle Freeman LB Gary Brown RB Shawn Jefferson WR (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

70 Worst: Browns 2000 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Courtney Brown DE Dennis Northcutt WR Travis Prentice RB JaJuan Dawson WR Lewis Sanders DB Aaron Shea TE Anthony Malbrough DB Lamar Chapman DB Spergon Wynn QB Brad Bedell T Manuia Savea G Eric Chandler DE Rashidi Barnes DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

71 Worst: Detroit 1997 Rnd Pick X Pos GS GS.z Bryant Westbrook DB Juan Roque T Kevin Abrams DB Matt Russell LB Pete Chryplewicz TE Duane Ashman DE Tony Ramirez T Terry Battle RB Marcus Harris WR Richard Jordan LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

72 10 Best Value Draft Picks ( ) Year Rnd Pick Tm Name Pos GS GS.z DEN Tom Nalen C GNB Adam Timmerman G ATL Todd McClure C IND Hunter Smith P HOU Shawn Jefferson WR NWE David Dixon G TAM Marty Carter DB PIT Carlos Emmons LB DAL Brock Marion DB NYJ Jason Ferguson DT (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

73 10 Worst Value Draft Picks ( ) Year Rnd Pick Tm Name Pos GS GS.z GNB Jamal Reynolds DE IND Trev Alberts LB PIT Huey Richardson LB CIN Ki-Jana Carter RB MIA Yatil Green WR PHO Ernest Dye T IND Steve Emtman DE CIN Akili Smith QB SEA Dan McGwire QB ATL Michael Booker DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

74 Conclusions Big Idea: New VPC based upon past player performance Metric is Career Games Started Evaluation Draft Performance Directly project value of current player for draft pick 74(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

75 NHL – Games Played 75(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

76 NBA Total Minutes(left), Games Played (right) 76(c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

77 Best: Kansas City 1996 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Jerome Woods DB Reggie Tongue DB John Browning DT Donnie Edwards LB Joe Horn WR Dietrich Jells WR Ben Lynch C Jeff Smith C Darrell Williams DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

78 Best: Pittsburgh 1996 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Jamain Stephens T Steve Conley LB Jon Witman RB Earl Holmes LB Jahine Arnold WR Israel Raybon DE Orpheus Roye DT Spence Fischer QB Carlos Emmons LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

79 Best: New England 1995 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Ty Law DB Ted Johnson LB Curtis Martin RB Jimmy Hitchcock DB Dave Wohlabaugh C Dino Philyaw RB Carlos Yancy DB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

80 Worst: Philadelphia Siran Stacy RB Tommy Jeter DT Tony Brooks RB Casey Weldon QB Corey Barlow DB Jeff Sydner WR William Boatwright G Chuck Bullough LB Ephesians Bartley LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

81 Worst: Dallas 1995 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Sherman Williams RB Kendell Watkins TE Shane Hannah G Charlie Williams DB Eric Bjornson TE Alundis Brice DB Linc Harden LB Edward Hervey WR Dana Howard LB Oscar Sturgis DE (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011

82 Worst: Washington 1992 Rnd Pick Name Pos GS GS.z Desmond Howard WR Shane Collins DE Paul Siever G Chris Hakel QB Ray Rowe TE Calvin Holmes DB Darryl Moore G Boone Powell LB (c)Copyright Michael Schuckers 2011


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