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Analysis of USC-Penn State 2009 NCAA Semifinal Match Using a Comprehensive Statistics System Tristan Burton Jon Newman-Gonchar UC San Diego

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Introduction Question: What do you have to do to win a volleyball match? Answer: Win 2/3 or 3/5 sets Question: How do you determine which team won each set? Answer: Calculate the point difference for each team. Winner will be ≥+2, Loser will be ≤-2 Question: If point difference matters so much, why can’t we easily assemble it from the statistics we already use? Answer: Unclear. Someone should develop a statistics system that can do this. Commentary: The events of a match are a matter of record, there is no need for correlations when we can determine exactly how we reached our point difference using a comprehensive statistics system.

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Comprehensive Statistics System Every point I win is +1 for my point difference and -1 for my opponent’s point difference, and vice versa. We need to categorize how all the points were scored so we can evaluate our performance in different areas of the game. 1. Service point difference: our serve and opponent 1st ball attack 2. 1st ball attack point difference: our 1st ball attack and opponent response 3. Transition attack point difference: our transition attacks and the opponent response 4. Opponent terminal serves (i.e. aces/errors) point difference 5. Opponent giveaway (mine) point difference 6. Opponent block and cover point difference Total Point Difference = 1+2+3-4-5-6

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Point Differences Question: How did USC win the match? Answer: 1. Service point difference: our serve and opponent 1st ball attack 2. 1st ball attack point difference: our 1st ball attack and opponent response 3. Transition attack point difference: our transition attacks and the opponent responses 4. Opponent terminal serves (i.e. aces/errors) point difference 5. Opponent giveaway (mine) point difference 6. Opponent block and cover point difference Total Point Difference = 1+2+3-4-5-6

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Point Differences Question: How did USC win the match? Answer: 1. Service point difference: our serve and opponent 1st ball attack 2. 1st ball attack point difference: our 1st ball attack and opponent response 3. Transition attack point difference: our transition attacks and the opponent responses 4. Opponent terminal serves (i.e. aces/errors) point difference 5. Opponent giveaway (mine) point difference 6. Opponent block and cover point difference Total Point Difference = 1+2+3-4-5-6 Serve1st Ball Attack Trans. Attack Opp. Serve Opp. Giv. Opp. BNC Total Penn State -51352-16103-11 USC-573624-12511

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Compound Statistics Point differences 1, 2, and 3 can be divided by number of attempts to produce the relevant compound (action and reaction) statistics. 1.Service effectiveness 2.1st ball attack effectiveness 3.Transition attack effectiveness Point differences 4, 5, and 6 can be divided by number of attempts to produce “traditional” statistics 4.Opponent service efficiency 5.Opponent giveaway hitting efficiency 6.Opponent block and cover hitting efficiency

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Service Effectiveness (SEffect) SEfficOpp1BallFracOpp1BallHEfficSEffectAttemptsServe Point Diff. Penn State -0.1120.6820.534-0.476107-51 USC-0.1380.7410.477-0.491116-57 PSU #7 0.0950.8090.471-0.28621-6 PSU #11 -0.0450.4090.555-0.27322-6

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Hitting Effectiveness (HEffect) 1st Ball HEfficOppCreFracOppCreHEfficHEffectAttempts1st Ball Point Diff. Penn State 0.4770.1510.4620.4078635 USC0.5340.1370.3000.4937336 PSU #11 0.7060.17610.529219 PSU #12 0.7060 2212

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Hitting Effectiveness (HEffect) TransHEfficOppCreFracOppCreHEfficHEffectAttemptsTrans Point Diff. Penn State 0.2570.3140.6360.057352 USC0.4910.1320.2860.4535324 PSU #11 0.5550.2220.50.44494 USC #11 0.6470.17600.6471711

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“Traditional” Statistics OppSEfficOpp. Attempt s Opp. Serve Point Diff. OppGivEfficOpp. Attempts Opp. Giv. Point Diff. Penn State-0.138116-160.5551810 USC-0.112107-120.357145 OppBNCEfficOpp. Attempts Opp. BNC Point Diff. Penn State0.273113 USC-0.2504

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Match Summary Serve1st Ball Attack Trans. Attack Opp. ServeOpp.Giv.Opp. BNC Penn State -11 107*(-0.476)= -51 86*0.407= 35 35*0.057= 2 116*(-0.138)= -16 18*0.555 =10 11*0.273= 3 USC 11 116*(-0.491)= -57 73*0.493= 36 53*0.453= 24 107*(-0.112)= -12 14*0.357 =5 4*(-0.250) =-1 1.USC had slightly lower serving effectiveness due to missed serves. Had to serve more because they were winning too many points! 2.USC higher 1st ball attack effectiveness made up for the discrepancy in the number of 1st ball attacks. 3.USC significantly higher transition effectiveness and attempts. Serve creates: PSU 4, USC 8. Attack creates: PSU 17, USC 17. Dig creates: PSU 15, USC 24. Block creates: PSU 2, USC 0. 4.USC lost 4 more points due to their missed serves than PSU did. 5.PSU gave the ball away more and USC was able to hit for a higher efficiency on giveaways. 6.USC had more BNC’s and hit for a higher efficiency off those BNC’s

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