Steam Engine, by James Watt Heralded the Industrial Revolution Pumped mine water Drove machinery Drove railroad engines (Before the steam engine, machinery driven manually, by wind, or by water.)
Steam Application: Locomotive, Railroad Faster, more efficient land transportation, with larger loads Steam engine + wheels + rails U.K. Germany France, U.S., etc. Engines considerably sped up local development.
Example: Smithsonian Museum (Modern Museum of Industries)
Land Cost Example: Tokyo Bay Purple is built-up. Green is vegetation High land rents Land built in the bay
Density Higher land rent
Educated Large Labor Force Growth
Skilled labor higher productivity, profits Key to manufacturing Literacy Technical skills Strong in EU, US, Russia, China, etc. Weak in Africa, parts of Asia and S. America
Lax Laws: Child Labor more profits Information: Then: U.S. Now: Third World
Site: Capital and Interest Rates Negotiable Varies by country, and over time… Sometimes varies by region, site
Situation: Bulk Gaining: Locations near the customer Reduces distribution costs by adding bulk near the consumer. Example, Coke: Just add water and carbonation…
By-products: Steel Mills Pollution
Transportation Transportation: part of services sector (Tertiary sector, next chapter.) Picking sites with good transportation at the location is a site decision. Location central to customers, and near transportation modes, are situation decisions.
Market Decline and Stagnation Market Decline can destroy companies, while stagnation stalls growth.
Stagnation: Agricultural Sector and Trade Demand is flat, sometimes declining! No market growth little incentive to enter market. (Example grains, from agriculture, same principle works here.
Problem: Capacity Exceeds Demand: Could be SUVs, Trucks… Remember the present and past. Story:http://www.potashcorp.com/investor_relations/investor_overview/industry_overview/2005/phosphate/page_19.zsp Image:
Increasing Product Supply: Plastic ‘Stuff’: –When you get your plastic stuff, see where it comes from. Japan Korea China India Shoes: –When you shop for shoes, look at the tags. Was Indonesia (but we boycotted sweat shops, so…) Now made in China
Resource Demand: Oil Increased demand, but old supplies dwindle More demand, less supply higher prices
US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use: Total demand increases Local production falls Foreign oil purchases, dependency Foreign oil supply and foreign policy are critical. Images:
Innovation: Assembly Line
MDC perspectives Trading Blocks: Example of cooperation… –Politics chapter Competitive trade advantages (NAFTA, OPEC, &) Internal disparities within countries and unions –areas of growth and decline… (Rust Belt, R&D regions such as Silicon Valley) Older, shrinking established populations, immigration –Population and Migration, (Western E.U. and Japan, Scandinavia, Russia) Transnational Corporations –Globalization of production Outsourcing
LDC perspectives More Disadvantages: –distance to (external) markets, –inadequate infrastructure: (transportation, communications, goods, services, tools, machines) –entrenched competition, –inconsistent governance and laws, –government instability, –low literacy More Advantages: –low labor costs, –local raw materials (if any) –fewer legal restrictions, (e.g. easier to pollute) –Large labor pools –Few or no benefits (health, retirement, vacation, etc.)
Services: Service: Any activity that fulfills a human want or need and returns money to those who provide it. (Not Manufacturing…) Not people making ‘stuff’.
Service Types: Consumer Services –Services for people who enjoy them Retail Services: sales to individual consumers Personal Services: services for the well being and personal improvement of individual consumers. Producer Services: –Services for people who use services for their work. banks, insurance, real estate, financial, law, engineering, wholesale Transportation and Information Services, –Railroads, trucking, phone, airlines, UPS, cable Public Services –Provide security and protection for citizens and businesses –Provide benefits to society as a whole. (Includes teaching)
Situation patterns Dispersed Settlements: –more self-sufficient, –lower demand for goods/services –Example: Mid-Atlantic US Midwest Clustered Settlements: –more interdependent –produce better goods by specializing –Examples: New England, Europe
Central Place Theory (important!) –(What do I do when things are important?) Why is it important? –Helps explain the distribution of services, and why a regular pattern develops. –Helps explain migration patterns. –Half of the explanation for cities, the next chapter.
Threshold and Range Threshold: minimum population required to survive. Range: maximum distance people travel for a service. urbannotes_files/image002.jpg
Increasing Competition A: Less competition: circles B: More competition: overlapping service ranges C: Select the closest store lines service boundaries This produces hexagons. _Image_Library/de_Blij_figures/IMAGE_56.JPG
Hexagon: Basic shape Highly competitive market: –all areas are served. Equal services: –Go to the closest service. Boundaries form the lines of a hexagon. hy/Ivogeler/w111/circle4.gif
Central Place Theory: Pattern Stores requiring a larger market threshold must serve more than one settlement to survive. These stores serve a market area encompassing neighboring settlements within their range. If the range encompasses one neighboring settlement, it encompasses all six.
Central Place Theory: Pattern This results in hexagons containing 7 settlements. The central settlements contain these (larger market threshold and range) stores serving more communities are larger, and are also known as more central places. (This gives the name to the theory.) Stores with still larger thresholds and ranges encompass clusters of these larger communities, and are located at cluster centers.
Applied Central Place Theory –CPT pattern affects migration Jobs, services, convenience –Concentration and mixture of cultures, development of subcultures Faster dispersion of: –new ideas, activities, things, –cultural change
Rank Size: Small Towns: serve local region, with small range stores that contain the population threshold. –Castroville: often, small store, gas, motel? Medium Towns: Sell to small towns within a larger local region or service area. –King City: supermarkets, auto sales, mall & CBD Small Cities: Serve medium towns within an even larger region. –Salinas: Wal-mart/K-Mart/Cosco, Community College Larger Cities: Market to small cities within an increasing, larger service area –San Jose: University, convention center, international airport, wide range of services
Largest City Comparisons: Rank Size Rule: (pattern) The nth city (or city rank) has approximately 1/n * the population of the largest city. –When the rank size rule does not work for the second city, the first city is extremely dominant. Primate City Rule: (pattern) The largest city in a region has more than twice the population of the second largest city. You have one OR the other, but not both!
Cities: History –Ancient cities: ex: Ur, Chang-an, Athens, Rome (wall, temples, market, housing, & road networks) –City states: independent self-governing communities that included a nearby countryside –Medieval cities: ex: Paris, London (often charters of rights, more personal freedom/less serfdom) –Modern World Cities: ex: NYC/Tokyo/London (global reach/service area, e.g. finance, influence)
Central Place Theory: Review A threshold population is needed for success This population must be in range for them to buy. With overlapping ranges, people pick closest store. –(This defines the service area in the simplest case.) Hexagons result from closest packing. Then, services need a threshold (population) within the service area. A beehive pattern is optimal for consumer access. We find a nested pattern of larger and smaller communities, larger communities also have stores with larger range, serving smaller communities.
Resource Issues Manufacturing and Services Environment and Economics
Total energy consumption per capita Kilograms of oil equivalent (kgoe) per person 2003&variable_ID=351&theme=6&cID=26,38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10
Global carbon consumption per capita: (Down? Not. Population still increases.) 2000&variable_ID=466&cID=38,63,70,85,122,189,190&ccID=0,9,10&years_rev=1
Resources: Energy –Petroleum –Natural Gas –Coal –Nuclear Minerals –Ferrous: Iron, et. al. –Non-Ferrous: Many more. Crucial to the world as we know it today.
Pollution: Pollution occurs when more waste products are generated than a resource (local system) can accommodate. –Natural Volcanoes, Floods, etc. –Human Manufacturing Transportation Consumption Discarded products Waste Products
By-products: Solid Pollution
Land and Water Pollution: Tailings Tailings: Leavings of the mine Unwanted by-product Tailings also produce: Dust Contaminated runoff
Population and Consumption: What happens if the present population increases consumption to the present first world consumption rate? 1.Use present consumption information 2.Compare the industrial world and the rest of the world. 3.Set the world to industrialized world consumption 4.Compare present and fully industrialized consumption.
1) Find a relative consumption factor: MDCs 20% of population uses 80% of resources. 0.2 * R1 = 0.8 R1 = 0.8 / 0.2 = 4 (4 * AVERAGE!) LDCs 80% of population uses 20% of resources. 0.8 * R2 = 0.2 R2 = 0.2 / 0.8 = 0.25 (1/4 OF AVERAGE!)
2) Compare the MDCs and LDCs: Try a ratio: R1 / R2 = 4 / 0.25 R1 / R2 = 16 If still true, the First World (MDCs) uses 16 times the amount of resources per capita as the rest of the world. (Amazing!)
3) Set the world to MDC consumption: Old total consumption: (MDCs) + (Everyone Else) = 1 (20% * 4) + (80% *.25) = 1 Fully industrialized total consumption: 100% * 4 = 4 4 * present average… (Problem!)
Q1: Is this supportable? Realistic? We would run out of oil approx. 4 times as fast. We would have 4 * the demand for raw materials. We would have 4 * the demand for steel and other industrial products. The world would in theory eat a similar calorie and meat diet. The world also would adopt our approach wholesale. –(All are doubtful.)
(Another Estimate) Article: World Population Change: Boom or Bust? –http://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lecture/pop_sum.htmhttp://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lecture/pop_sum.htm w.uwsp. edu/busi ness/ec onomics wisconsi n/e_lect ure/pop_ images/ pop_gro wth.jpg
When do we run out? What do we do? Assumptions are used in each model: Proven Reserves, Potential Reserves, Reasonable production costs, & Note: This estimate assumes no coal, nuclear by 2050, but both are now major contributions. Is this the ‘best’ mix? What is ‘best’? Why? Who picks? How?
Local, Regional, Global Effects Sources: Transportation Energy consumption Manufacturing
US Petroleum Supply, Energy Use: Total demand increases Local production falls Foreign oil purchases & dependency Foreign oil supply and foreign policy become critical. Images:
We do not control our oil future. (Relate to ANWR.) Image:
Resource Demand: Oil Increased Demand, but old supplies dwindle New supplies are more costly. More demand, less supply higher prices
Oil Reserves: Extract from proven reserves. Note location and regional (in)stability. nh=98&tbnw=133&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dproven%2Boil%2Bsupply%2Bworld%26svnum%3D10%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26safe%3Doff%26client%3Dfirefox-a%26rls%3Dorg.mozilla:en-US:official_s%26sa%3DG
What are ‘Recoverable, Unconventional?’ Unconventional: –Tar Sands –Oil Shale Recoverable: –Re-tapping old fields (See ‘fracking’, and associate risks.) Many extraction efforts need new technologies Deeper wells Deep-sea drilling Specialized extraction techniques –Many to be determined, developed, or tested, risks evaluated. If the oil is not recoverable, we run out. If the oil is recoverable, we pay more… and we pollute more.
Pollution: Air / Thermal Local: –Smog, –Surface Ozone, –Inversions, –Heat Islands Regional: –Smog, –Acid Rain, –Changes in rainfall patterns Global: –Warming Greenhouse Gases –Ozone Hole CFCs, etc.
Local Temperature: Heat Island Effect This localized effect is different from global warming. It is caused by energy use (air conditioning, cars, industries, etc.) Source URL:
Regional Effect: Acid Rain –Reduces agricultural output –Harms species –Impacts ecosystems Ex: Black Forest, Europe Ex: Eastern US
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect
Enhanced Greenhouse Effect The greenhouse effect is natural. Gases absorb and re-radiate a lot of energy. –Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx, etc. The enhanced greenhouse effect is the additional human contribution to those greenhouse gases. The enhanced greenhouse effect is caused in large part by fossil fuel use, including manufacturing, transportation, and shipping. There are other contributions: –Cow flatulence, –Rice patties
Why add the word enhanced? You are more correct. You sound more intelligent. You indicate more of the big picture. (!!!) –The greenhouse effect exists without us. –Humans enhance it (by burning fossil fuels, etc.) –Without the greenhouse effect, the world would be a cold place to live. –With the enhanced greenhouse effect, the world will be a hotter place to live than it has been.
Global Warming: Notable Abnormal
Causes: Identifiable Ex: Consistent Annual CO2 rise IF
Problem: Estimable: Gases energy storage in the atmosphere. ate/images/observing3.gif
Present Effects: Predictable We can model aspects of global warming.. Models are incomplete, (always will be), but sufficient for prediction.
Sea Level Rise Seas: response lags as the oceans absorb temperature and slowly expand. Land glacial melt combines with this.
Effects are notable. Rate of future change is uncertain. Glacial retreat (mountain and continental) Sea level rise –Land loss, population displacement More extreme events –Stronger storms Hotter summers –More heat wave related deaths are expected. More droughts –Poorer crop production is likely. Stronger winter cold weather events (!) –Heat engine: more heat more circulation.
Consequences are expected, but when? Sea level rise: Southeast US: + 8 m. Greenland Ice Cap = 7 m. –Note: Miami, New Orleans, US East Coast cities
Now for the bad news… Long-term consequences of this initial change are difficult to calculate. There are positive and negative feedbacks that complicate the long-term results, including: –Economics –Population Growth –Energy Efficiency –Energy Sources, –New Technologies Technology adoption
Why is it taking so long? Greenhouse gases take time to be absorbed. Greenhouse gas production is going up, not down. New habits and technologies (translation, you) are needed. Any new states and transitions will take time to complete. Example: oceans. –Sea level rise is a function of amount of water and its temperature. –The oceans heat up slowly over time, matching the surface temperature regime over centuries. The effect is cumulative, but glacially slow.
Alternative Energy Source Options: Solar –Needs dependable sunlight. Wind –Needs dependable high winds. Bio-fuel –Takes much farmland from food production. –Low total yields. Fission (?) Fusion (???) –Still in search of solutions: radiation, efficiency Hydrogen (??) This is a storage medium, e.g. hydrogen cells –Need an energy source for splitting water. (N/A) This is actually like a battery. It stores energy.
Option: Solar Needs reliable sunlight –Southwest More flexible than wind –Can place on objects Rooftops, etc. Often related do demand –Hot sunny days want A/C Not good everywhere –Bad in the North in Winter New England. Midwest
Option: Wind Strong winds Reliable winds Few people –Not popular –NIMBY Noisy Kills birds Visual intrusion
(Another Estimate) World Population Change: Boom or Bust? –http://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lectur e/pop_sum.htmhttp://www.uwsp.edu/business/economicswisconsin/e_lectur e/pop_sum.htm w.uwsp. edu/busi ness/ec onomics wisconsi n/e_lect ure/pop_ images/ pop_gro wth.jpg
LULU: Locally Undesirable Land Use Everyone wants some products. No-one wants waste products, etc. Many want new ‘stuff’ Few want the old junk. We make them and dump them someplace. Where? Not in my back yard! (NIMBY) So… Whose back yard?
1/3 of Nuclear Power production is in the U.S. (Where is this?)
Nuclear Power Concerns: Accidents –Chernobyl Terrorism Bomb Material –Theft or sale LULU Thermal Pollution Radiation –I understand that radiation from coal plants is comparable.
HDI and Consumption: Compare US, Japan, Brazil Source URL: Source info:
Combating Pollution Recycle reusable resources. –Change discarded items from waste products to resources. Reduce consumption. –Reduce waste produced in manufacture and distribution. Reuse components. –Includes re-purposing. Research less polluting methods –Includes changing products, and changing methods. Replace present polluting methods with better methods. –We already have some alternative methods that work. (Prev. slides.)
Combating Pollution (repeat) Recycle reusable resources. Reduce consumption. Reuse components until they die. Research less polluting methods Replace present polluting methods with better methods. Have a Merry Christmas! (Happy Consumption Festival!) (or) have a happy vacation! (Consume wisely.)