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SWITCH Training Kit: Pilot Training, Entebbe, 28-29 July 2010 Water Demand Management in the City of the Future Forecasting water demand – why is accurate.

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Presentation on theme: "SWITCH Training Kit: Pilot Training, Entebbe, 28-29 July 2010 Water Demand Management in the City of the Future Forecasting water demand – why is accurate."— Presentation transcript:

1 SWITCH Training Kit: Pilot Training, Entebbe, July 2010 Water Demand Management in the City of the Future Forecasting water demand – why is accurate demand forecasting important?

2 Why demand forecasting?  To develop a projection or ‘reference case’ of future water demand in a given region  To help understand the gap between supply and demand Time Water Surplus Deficit Gap

3 What factors affect demand for water?

4 Average Demand and Peak Demand  Demand management is mainly concerned with consumption of water resource per year oi.e. average demand  Short-term fluctuations in demand oTime of year / temperature (higher in hot periods) oDays of the week (variation in commercial / institutional / industrial / household / tourism uses) oTime of day Fluctuations in demand often managed using storage Peak demand determines system design, and management of peak demand may be valuable

5 Water Demand has many components!

6 Historical demand forecasting  Historical/current per person water demand (l/p-d) oHistorical growth in demand  Forecast water demand by multiplying the per person demand by projected population  It is a quick and easy method  Limitations oOnly projecting current/past situation which may have been affected by ‘other factors’ such as climate oDoes not account for changes in consumption  Changes in use – e.g. showers, flush toilets, washing m/cs  Changes in technology and efficiencies

7 Inaccuracies of historical demand forecasting, example from Sydney

8 Comparison of methods of demand forecasting

9 Demand chart

10 Sector - System Analysis

11 Sectors and customers

12 End-use analysis  Separate water demand into different sectors (e.g. residential, industrial)  Separate residential into end uses (e.g. showers, toilets) and estimate change over time  Benefits oDetailed understanding of ‘how’ water is used and how this may change over time oUses the concept of the ‘unit of service’ and not just ‘supplying a volume of water’  Limitations oData on end uses may not be available oFull analysis requires a major effort (but useful results and priorities may be obtained through limited study)

13 End use data from SWITCH Alexandria workshops

14 Data collection for demand forecasting The System – Service Provider Bulk water Metered water Other supplies The System – The customer Demographic data Stock data End-use data Surveys Other Govt Statistics Questionnaires Surveys Data loggers Diaries Other studies Surveys Other Govt Statistics Surveys

15 Example of End Use Consumption

16 Residential end-uses to consider / collect data for analysis  Indoor end uses oToilet oBath oShower oWash basin oLaundry tap oWashing machine oKitchen tap oDish washer  Outdoor end uses o Lawn/garden irrigatn o Livestock o Car washing o Pool etc o Evaporative AC  Home business use o Tea shop, Hair salon, Brewing etc

17 How much water is used?

18 Toilet water usage projections for Sydney, Australia

19 Single residential household demand (700 m3/hh/a) – Alice Springs, Australia

20 Forecasting using end use analysis

21 Acknowledgements  Sam Kayaga, WEDC UK  Stuart White and Andrea Turner, Institute for Sustainable Futures, University of Technology, Sydney, Australia


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