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Andy Chan Geo 387H Physical Climatology Fall 2007.

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Presentation on theme: "Andy Chan Geo 387H Physical Climatology Fall 2007."— Presentation transcript:

1 Andy Chan Geo 387H Physical Climatology Fall 2007

2 Glacier Related Excerpts from IPCC Assessment Report 2007 More than 1/6 of world population depend on snowmelt- or glacier-fed rivers Glaciers continue to melt as temperature continue rises Some glaciers will be depleted in a few decades, some within this century Reduce water availability for irrigation and agriculture ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

3 Why Himalayas?

4 Why is it important? Himalayas is nicknamed “Water Tower of Asia” Largest body of glaciers outside of polar regions, occupy 17% of mountain area Glaciers supply freshwater to 500 million people in Himalaya-Hindu-Kush region and 250 million people in China (IPCC) ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

5 Why is it important? IPCC Assessment Report 2007 Figure 10.4 ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

6 Literature Reviewed Reviews in Nature Barnett, Adam, Lettenmaier (2005) Modeling Singh and Kumar (1997) Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Singh, Arora, Goel (2006) Rees and Collins (2006) ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

7 Singh and Kumar (1997) km 2 Elevation 2900 to 7000 m Most area under 6000 m ~2.5% covered by glaciers ~45% runoff from snow and glacier melt ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

8 Singh and Kumar (1997) Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

9 Singh and Kumar (1997) Snowmelt Runoff ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

10 Singh and Kumar (1997) Glacier Melt Runoff ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

11 Singh and Kumar (1997) Total Streamflow Runoff ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

12 Snowmelt and glacier melt increases linearly with temperature rise Snowmelt runoff, glacier melt runoff, and total streamflow increased 4-18%, 33-38%, and 6-12% respectively in +2°C scenario Higher streamflow in the spring Singh and Kumar (1997) Keypoints ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

13 Singh and Bengtsson (2004) km 2 Elevation 500 to 7000 m Most area under 6000 m ~11% covered by glaciers ~60% runoff from snow and glacier melt ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

14 Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Monthly Snowmelt Runoff ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

15 Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Snowmelt Seasonal Change Spring: +12.1% Summer: -10.4% Annual: -6.1% ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

16 Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Monthly Streamflow ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

17 Spring: +4 to +10% Summer: -6 to -11% Annual: -4 to -6% (due to predicted decrease in rainfall) Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Counterbalance ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

18 Reduced contribution of snowmelt from lower part of the basin is counterbalanced by the increased glacier melt from upper part of the basin Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Streamflow Seasonal Change 23 ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

19 Singh and Bengtsson (2004) Keypoints In a large basin with a wide range of elevation, spring runoff increases and summer runoff decreases Both caused by early snowmelt Snowmelt reduction in the lower zone counterbalanced by increased glacier melt from the higher zone Annual snowmelt decreases by 4-6% (+2°C ) due to basin-wide deduction in snowmelt and rainfall ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

20 Singh, Arora, Goel (2006) km 2 Elevation 3950 to 5800 m ~60% covered by snow and ice ~83% runoff from glacier melt ~17% runoff from rainfall ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

21 Singh, Arora, Goel (2006) Change in Basin Runoff ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

22 Singh, Arora, Goel (2006) Change in Basin Runoff in the Summer ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

23 Singh Arora, Goel (2006) Keypoint In a basin with 87% glacier melt as total runoff, +2°C increases summer streamflow by 28% ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

24 Rees and Collins (2006) Two Conceptual basins SE Himalayas: Monsoon rain NW Himalayas: Westerly precipitation 5000 km 2 each 50 km 2 of glacier Elevation 4000 to 6000 m ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

25 Rees and Collins (2006) Hypothetical Catchment ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

26 Rees and Collins (2006) Ice Cover Area in 150 Years ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

27 Rees and Collins (2006) Discharge in Future 150 Years Baseline ConditionWarming Condition Western Catchment Eastern Catchment ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

28 Rees and Collins (2006) Keypoint Discharge increases by % before dropping by 33% and 4-18% in the Western and Eastern catchment respectively ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

29 Wrapping up… Short term Temperature rise causes streamflow to increase in spring and decrease in summer Water demand is highest during summer Reduced contribution of snowmelt from lower elevation is counteracted by increased glacier melt from higher elevation Long term Streamflow initially increases as glaciers melt, then decreases when glaciers are depleted ANDY CHAN - THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE WARMING ON THE HYDROLOGY OF GLACIER AND SNOW MELTING IN THE HIMALAYAS - PHYSICAL CLIMATOLOGY - GEO387H

30 Questions?


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