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GOLD AND SILVER PRICE DRIVERS CURRENT DEMAND TRENDS AND OUTLOOK. CAMERON ALEXANDER MANAGER, PRECIOUS METALS DEMAND, ASIA RESEARCH & FORECASTS, GFMS, THOMSON.

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Presentation on theme: "GOLD AND SILVER PRICE DRIVERS CURRENT DEMAND TRENDS AND OUTLOOK. CAMERON ALEXANDER MANAGER, PRECIOUS METALS DEMAND, ASIA RESEARCH & FORECASTS, GFMS, THOMSON."— Presentation transcript:

1 GOLD AND SILVER PRICE DRIVERS CURRENT DEMAND TRENDS AND OUTLOOK. CAMERON ALEXANDER MANAGER, PRECIOUS METALS DEMAND, ASIA RESEARCH & FORECASTS, GFMS, THOMSON REUTERS INDIA INTERNATIONAL GOLD CONVENTION PUNE, 13th SEPTEMBER 2014

2 TWO METALS, BOTH WITH DUAL CHARACTERISTICS Gold is both a commodity and a currency; while Silver is both industrial and precious

3 WORLD GOLD SUPPLY AND DEMAND (tonnes) (f)2015(f) Total Supply 4,1044,3464,5094,4554,2554,2144,022 Physical Demand 3,0233,8094,5124,3164,9564,5014,197 Physical Surplus/Deficit 1, ETF Inventory Build Exchange Inventory Build Net Balance Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

4 GOLD: PHYSICAL MARKET BALANCE; TONNES

5 GOLD AGAINST THE $:€ RATE, JANUARY 2013 TO AUGUST 2014 Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

6 WORLD GOLD SUPPLY Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters Net total tonnage

7 WORLD MINE SUPPLY Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

8 PREVIOUS DECADE Higher gold prices resulted in lower cut-off and processed grades. Increasing production on capacity expansions. Surging mining cost inflation in tandem with rising gold prices. Rampant M&A activity at excessive valuations. High gold prices promote development of new projects, high capital investment expenditure. NOW Lower gold prices leading to higher cut-off and processed grades. Increased production on higher processed grades. Lower gold prices force producers to control mining costs – efficiency. Falloff in M&A, large impairments and asset divestments. Lower gold prices force a rethink to capital investment allocation and prioritisation. THE CURRENT STATE OF THE GOLD MINING INDUSTRY 8

9 WORLD TOTAL CASH AND ALL IN COST CURVES 2013 VERSUS Average Gold Price ($1,668.98/oz) Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

10 ANNUAL MINE HEDGING ACTIVITY Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

11 EVOLUTION OF THE GLOBAL HEDGE BOOK Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

12 WORLD GOLD DEMAND Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

13 NET OFFICIAL SECTOR GOLD PURCHASES/SALES Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters Tonnes Net Sales Net Purchases * signatories to the Central Bank Gold Agreements **all other countries

14 JEWELLERY FABRICATION AND IDENTIFIABLE INVESTMENT

15 OVERALL IDENTIFIABLE QUARTERLY INVESTMENT LEVELS Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

16 GOLD ETFS AND OTHER SIMILAR PRODUCTS Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters Tonnes

17 INVESTORS’* POSITIONS IN COMEX GOLD FUTURES * non-commercial futures positions taken as proxy for investors’ positions, Source: CFTC Tonnes

18 INDIAN MEASURED BAR AND COIN DEMAND Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

19 GOLD IN US$ AND RUPEE TERMS Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

20 CHINA CONSUMPTION Lunar New Year : First quarter Wedding season: Lunar month of September, this year it is from 24 th Sep to 21 st Nov

21 GOLD AGAINST OTHER ASSET CLASSES EU/US$ Rate US/Yen Rate Silver Oil (WTI) GSCI CRB Index S&P Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

22 GOLD AGAINST OTHER ASSET CLASSES Q Q Q Q Q Q EU/US$ Rate US/Yen Rate Silver Oil (WTI) GSCI CRB Index S&P Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

23 GOLD AND THE S&P 500 Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

24 GOLD PRICE & TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR Gold, London p.m. Fix, US$/oz Trade Weighted Dollar (Inverted, 2 nd Jan 2013=100) Indian import duty raised from 4% to 6% Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters EC suggests Cyprus sells 400M euro worth of gold Specification issued that Indian import:export ratio for gold must be at least 80:20 Fed announces it could start “tapering” asset purchases in 2013 Tensions ease as Syrian chemical weapons deal reached Fed announces tapering of $10bn to $75bn from January President Yanukovych leaves Ukraine

25

26 SILVER

27 WORLD SILVER SUPPLY AND DEMAND (tonnes) (f)2015(f) Total Supply 28,35733,30332,27331,26830,64032,27931,897 Physical Demand 26,73332,11733,24729,68533,62631,81031,912 Physical Surplus/Deficit 1,6241, ,586-2, ETF Inventory Build 4,7844, , Exchange Inventory Build , Net Balance -2,684-2, ,062-3, Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters

28 IDENTIFIABLE BULLION STOCKS INVENTORY ESTIMATES Source: GFMS, Thomson Reuters Tonnes

29 WORLD SILVER SUPPLY

30 2013 WORLD SILVER SUPPLY BY SOURCE (mine and scrap

31 WORLD SILVER FABRICATION DEMAND

32 SILVER DEMAND BY END-USE (tonnes)

33 SILVER DEMAND BY END-USE (%)

34 SILVER ETF HOLDINGS *Includes ETFS London, Australia, NYSE, GLTR and WITE ; ** Includes Sprott Physical Silver Trust, Julius Baer, DB Physical Silver, Blackrock Silver Bullion ETF, Mitsubishi UFJ Tokyo, Silver Bullion Trust, iShares Physical Silver ETC, Source Physical Silver, Royal Canadian Mint ETR; Source: Respective issuers Tonnes

35 SILVER AND OTHER ASSET CLASSES Q Q Q Q Q1.2014Q XAU EUR/USD S&P VIX Copper

36 SILVER VS GOLD OVER ONE YEAR Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

37 SILVER VS GOLD OVER 20 YEARS Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

38 SILVER VS COPPER OVER ONE YEAR Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

39 SILVER VS S&P 500 OVER ONE YEAR Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

40 GOLD: SILVER RATIO OVER 20 YEARS Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

41 GOLD: SILVER RATIO OVER ONE YEAR Source: Thomson Reuters Eikon

42 SILVER PRICES

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