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1 Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada

2 Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada Campaign Design for Land Operations – Dealing with Complex Environments and Wicked Problems Fred Cameron

3 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Campaign Design for Land Operations Introduction: Complex Environments and Wicked Problems Background –Shimon Naveh and Systemic Operational Design –Australian Army and Adaptive Campaigning –US Army TRADOC and Commander’s Appreciation and Campaign Design Recent Canadian Army Experience –TRADOC’s OMNI FUSION 2009: A Divisional Level Design Team Operational Research, Soft System Methods, and Other Initiatives –Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods –Critical Thinking –Creative Thinking –Conceptual Models –Data and Statistical Analysis Conclusions

4 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Background Complex Environments –General Rick Hillier and the Strategic Advisory Team – Afghanistan “The complexity of the challenges facing Afghanistan called for an integrated, long-term approach to nation-building. Part of that approach included the work done with the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan by the members of the military planning staff in the ISAF Headquarters.” Source: LCol Michel St-Louis, 2009 “Since 2004, Canada has applied a Whole of Government approach to coordinating its diplomatic, development and defence resources in support of the Afghan people’s efforts to rebuild their country – one of the poorest in the world. A unique and key part of that effort has been the deployment of the Kabul-based Canadian Strategic Advisory Team – Afghanistan; a small team mandated to assist senior Afghan leadership in turning vision and goals into workable plans.” Source: DND Joint Doctrine Note (JDN) 02/2008

5 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Background –General Walt Natynchuk and “Actionable Statistics” in Baghdad “I found myself dealing with the strategy, policy, and plans of Operation Iraqi Freedom in Baghdad. It was at this stage that I was introduced to the use of a number of the products of analysis and saw many examples of applying analytical techniques to our mission in OIF … To accomplish this effectively in such a situation is not easy. The context can change rapidly with combat operations, stability operations and PSOs [Peace Support Operations] often occurring simultaneously at different places and at different times.” Gen Natynchuk described “how we on the staff of Combined Joint Task Force 7 (CJTF 7) in Baghdad last year [2004] used statistics as indicators of what was happening in our area of responsibility.” Wicked Problems Source: Gen Natynchuk’s Keynote Address in Cornwallis Group X Proceedings, Ted Woodcock (ed.), 2005,

6 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO West Churchman and ‘Wicked Problems’ Depiction of ‘wicked problems’ started with Professor Horst Rittel, University of California Architecture Department, 1967 ‘Wicked’ is supposed to describe the mischievous and even evil quality of some problems, where proposed ‘solutions’ often turn out to be worse than the symptoms Attempts to tame wicked problems might consist of ‘carving off’ a piece of the problem and finding a rational and feasible solution to this piece, then leaving for someone else the untamed part Does OR merely ‘take away the growl’? Can we inadvertently deceive clients? Source: C West Churchman. “Wicked Problems”. Management Science, 14:4, December 1967

7 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Selected Aspects of ‘Wicked Problems’ Often the humans within the problem make it wicked – their purposeful behaviours are inadequately understood The problem is not understood until after the formulation of a solution – after some action is taken Wicked problems have no ‘stopping rule’ – in military terms: they lack ‘an exit strategy’ Approaches to wicked problems are neither right nor wrong – most come with consequences, and many of those consequences cannot be anticipated Every wicked problem is essentially novel and unique – otherwise we would simply re-use solutions that worked before Every solution to a wicked problem is a ‘one-shot operation’ – after intervention, we now have a different problem See also: Russell Ackoff on Puzzles, Problems, and Messes

8 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Systemic Operational Design Shimon Naveh’s In Pursuit of Military Excellence: Evolution of Operational Theory and many other publications “Design is a collaborative, interdisciplinary approach to operations to help the commander develop a fuller situational understanding, shared with superiors, key subordinates, partners, and allies so the commander can formulate a strategy (or stratagem) for changing unacceptable circumstances to more acceptable ones” The First Step for the Design Team: –‘an exploration of the sponsor’s motivation and expectations’ Sound Familiar? Source: Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice Operational Design” in Joint Forces Quarterly, Spring 2009

9 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Adaptive Campaigning (Australian Army) Act: From a theory of reality Sense: To discern change Decide: About the meaning of things Adapt: To the new level of understanding Source: Anne-Marie Grisogono and Alex Ryan, “Operationalising Adaptive Campaigning”, 2007

10 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO TRADOC Pam : Commander’s Appreciation and Campaign Design

11 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Critics of Systemic Operational Design Some specifics points from critics: –Traditional Planning: “What do you want to accomplish?” “How can you get there (time and space)?” “Should you have intermediate objectives?” –Systemic Operational Design: “SOD assumes continuous shifting and reframing” – fickleness? –“A significant difference between the two concepts [Systemic Operational Design and Effects Based Approach to Operations – EBAO] is that SOD does not envisage the use of quantifiable methods such as measures of effectiveness and measures of performance.” See Milan Vego, “A Case Against Systemic Operational Design” in Joint Forces Quarterly, 53:2, 2009

12 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO OMNI FUSION 2009 (OF09) OMNI FUSION Series: Multi-year army experiments conducted to discover, refine and/or validate organizational relationships between corps/division headquarters and the different brigades in a future joint, interagency, and multinational operational environment OMNI FUSION 09: –Included several preparation activities starting immediately following OMNI FUSION 08 (planning conferences, seminars, etc.) –Focused on division-level operations –Simultaneously used five Army simulations (OneSAF, ATCOM, FireSim, EADSIM, and CES) –A closed wide-area network, linking major US Army experimentation centers: Ft Leavenworth, Ft Sill, Ft Rucker, Ft Benning, Ft Bliss, Ft Monroe, Ft Gordon, Ft Bragg, Ft Leonard Wood, and Huntsville –Simulation Exercise July with over 460 personnel –Canadian, British, and Australian participation –British C2 interoperability: representation from Land Warfare Centre, UK 12 Mechanized Brigade, Dstl, NITEWORKS

13 OMNI FUSION 09: Fictional Aegean Regional Overview Attica Stable, prosperous society with popular support for dictatorship. Ethnic and religious diversity unified by political ideology. Strong economy: oil/gas, manufacturing, agriculture and mining. Popular dislike of Western cultures. Extensive economic and diplomatic ties to Laconia and extra-regional countries, to include arms imports. Elis Fledgling democracy. Strong ethnic and religious ties to Attica. Elis’ relations with U.S. and West have created tension with Attica.

14 Community of Practice CoP Battle Labs AMBLAir Maneuver Battle Lab (Ft Rucker) AMDBL Air and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Ft Bliss) BCBL-G Battle Command Battle Lab – Gordon (Ft Gordon) BCBL-H Battle Command Battle Lab – Huachuca (Ft Huachuca) FBLFires Battle Lab (Ft Sill) MSBLManeuver Support Battle Lab (Ft Leonard Wood) MBLManeuver Battle Lab: Virtual Constructive Simulation Directorate (Ft Benning) SMDBLSpace and Missile Defense Battle Lab (Huntsville, AL) Sust BLSustainment Battle Lab (Ft Lee) USASOC-FCUS Army Special Operations Cmd - Futures Center (Ft Bragg) EXCON AMBL 7 H 5 X FCS MBL 4 X UK 12 X MBL AS 1 X 7 X 7 X FBL 7 X MSBL FFID 7 XX Brigade Staff (CoP) Theater Response Cell (CoP) Admin & Support (BCBL-L, TRISA, CoP) Response Cells (CoP) Fully Functional, not fully manned (BCBL-L led, CoP) HICON, IX Corps, (BCBL-L, CoP) Theater Support Cmd JSOTF USASOC-FC JPOTF USASOC-FC Theater IO Group Theater Assets Green Control BCBL-L Red Control Red Operations Ground MBL Rotary AMBL FW Air SMDBL Fires FBL UAV AMBL/SMDBL Tech Control Analysis HICON IX XXX CP Located at BCBL-L Blue Operations GroundMBL Air OPSAMBL CASFBL FiresFBL UAVSMDBL/AMBL ADAAMDBL Multi-National Participation UK United Kingdom CA Canada ASAustralia 205 X MED 1 X SUST 4 CA X Experiment Architecture

15 Omni Fusion SIMEX Week 2 (20 – 24 July 09) Time (EDT) Time (CDT) Game Time Mon: 20 Jul 09Tues: 21 Jul 09Wed: 22 Jul 09Thu: 23 Jul 09Fri: 24 Jul 09Sun: 26 Jul /5/ COMMEX Survey Window Staff Leader Time Next Day Prep Survey Window Simulation Run Survey Window Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash EXCON Meeting Week #2 Ends OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM (WEEK #2) SIMULATION RUN TIME PREP FOR NEXT DAY No Activities Scheduled Prep Time Participants Arrive / Logged On Distributed Sites Readiness Report PREP TIME Sat: 25 Jul 09 No Activities Scheduled Final Staff and Tech Support Preparations Conduct CUB EXCON Meeting Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash

16 Omni Fusion SIMEX Week 3 (27 – 31 July 09) Time (EDT) Time (CDT) Game Time Mon: 27 Jul 09Tues: 28 Jul 09Thu: 30 Jul 09Fri: 31 Jul 09Sat: 1 Aug 09Sun: 2 Aug /6/ Showcase Day OF09 ENDEX Victory Party Havana Beach Club SIMEX PAUSE EXCON Meeting Survey Window Staff and Tech Support Preparation SIMEX RECORD RUN Survey Window Analyst / Role Player Hot Wash Staff Leader Time Travel Post Experiment Initial Insights Brief Recognition and Closing Remarks OMNI FUSION 2009 BATTLE RHYTHM (WEEK #3) Wed: 29 Jul 09 Showcase Day Prep Time Participants Arrive / Logged On Distributed Sites Readiness Report Arrive In Seats Travel Final Surveys PREP FOR NEXT DAY PREP TIME SIMULATION RUN TIME

17 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO ‘Design’ within OMNI FUSION 09 ‘Design’ (after several regenerations) –Formerly known as ‘Commander’s Appreciation and Campaign Design’, TRADOC Pamphlet –‘A cognitive model intended for use by commanders charged with designing, planning, and executing military campaigns.’ –‘An approach to critical and creative thinking that enables a commander to create understanding about a unique situation and on that basis, to visualize and describe how to generate change.’ For more, see the OMNI FUSION blog:

18 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Canadian Army Participants Response to ‘Design’ in OF09 ‘Design’ will be a valuable procedure for the military Difficulties at OF09 replicating suitable conditions for ‘design’ Lack of ‘richness’ in the OF09 scenario – depth of detail on social factors, including role players Lack of mature understanding across the coalition force Design principles seem useful down to tactical level, but different ‘design structures and procedures’ may evolve at different level of headquarters Canada will propose a Project Team on ‘Design’ within the ABCA Armies’ Programme: armies of America (incl. USMC), Britain (incl. RM), Canada, Australia, and New Zealand

19 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO The Role of Operational Research/Operational Analysis Remember: ‘The application of simple models in a complex environment’ 26ISMOR Sub- theme #2 Remember: ‘All models are wrong, but some models are useful.’ – George Box Review past successes in complex environments when tackling wicked problems

20 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Peter Checkland and Soft System Methods Four Characteristics: 1.Every situation is a ‘human situation’ with people taking ‘purposeful action’ 2.Many interpretations of any declared purpose (choices must be made and declared) 3.There will be a huge number of human activity models which could be built (which are relevant?) 4.Many perspectives or viewpoints on the model(s) Rich Pictures Other Diagramming Methods Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)

21 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Rich Pictures See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice: Diagramming

22 Source: Peter Checkland. “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective”, Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 17, S11–S58 (2000)

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24 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Some Other Tools Associated with Operational Research Critical Thinking –Devil’s Advocates and Red Teaming –‘Everyone’s a Critic’ Creative Thinking –Learning Organizations –Example: Edward de Bono’s Six Thinking Hats Conceptual Models –Influence Diagrams and System Dynamics Modelling –Social Network Analysis

25 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Influence Diagrams and Feedback Loops See: Open University Course: Systems Thinking and Practice: Diagramming

26 A Complex Problem and System Dynamics Source: Based on testimony of Jay W. Forrester at the Subcommittee on Urban Growth of the Committee on Banking and Currency, U.S. House of Representatives, on October 7, 1970 (Forrester, 1995)

27 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Data, Statistical Analysis, and Metrics Measures of Effectiveness and Stability Indicators –In Canadian Forces doctrine, many of these were derived from examples used in Bosnia Opinion Surveys in Operational Theatres Metrics for Counterinsurgency and Stability Operations –Outlined for the Canadian Army in Doctrine Civil-Military Cooperation in Peace, Emergencies, Crisis and War B-GG /AF-023, Jan 1999 Counter-Insurgency Operations B-GL /FP-003, Dec 2008 –Outlined for the US in Doctrine Counterinsurgency Field Manual 3-24, Dec 2006 Stability Operations Field Manual 3-07, Oct 2008

28 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Kandahar Surveys: Sample of Results First comprehensive poll of the Afghan population of Kandahar Province Conducted March 2007 by 56 Afghan interviewers from ACSOR Surveys (Afghan-American joint venture) 1287 interviews across 18 Districts of Kandahar Province Most interviews conducted in Pashto (others in Dari) Women interviewed by female interviewers Extract from Cameron Presentation at 24ISMOR, 2007

29 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO Conclusion Military clients are stumbling into areas where operational research has been before them… though in other contexts The Operational Research and Analysis community needs an action plan: 1.Determine the Military Stakeholders and Requirement 2.Inventory Suitable Operational Analysis/Research Methods 3.Collaborate with Military Sponsors 4.Experiment and Initiate Cyclical Development: Act, Sense, Decide… about the Design procedures

30 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO References Stefan Banack “Educating by Design: Preparing Leaders for a Complex World” Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009, pp Stefan Banach and Alex Ryan, “The Art of Design: A Design Methodology” Military Review, Mar-Apr 2009, pp Peter Checkland, “Soft Systems Methodology: A Thirty Year Retrospective” Systems Research and Behavioral Science 17, S11–S58 (2000) Chief of Force Development, The Strategic Advisory Team Afghanistan, Canadian Forces Joint Doctrine Note 02/08, Ottawa, May 2008 West Churchman, “Wicked Problems”, Management Science, 14:4, Dec 1967, pp. B Jay Forrester, “Counterintutive Behavior of Social Systems”, 1995, (accessed 7 Aug 2009) Anne-Marie Grisogono and Alex Ryan, “Operationalising Adaptive Campaigning” Proceedings of International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium, June (accessed 7 Aug 2009) Walter Natynczyk “Keynote Address: Actionable Statistics” in Proceeding of Cornwallis Group X (Ted Woodcock, ed.), March 2005, Naveh Shimon, In Pursuit of Military Excellence: Evolution of Operational Theory, Taylor & Francis, 1997 Michel-Henri St-Louis, “The Strategic Advisory Team in Afghanistan” Canadian Military Journal, Vol. 9, No. 3, 2009 Richard Swain, “Commander’s Business: Learning to Practice Operational Design”, Joint Forces Quarterly, 53, Spring, 2009, pp Milan Vigo, “A Case Against Systemic Operational Design”, Joint Forces Quarterly, 53, Spring,

31 Defence R&D Canada – CORA R & D pour la défense Canada – CARO

32 Defence Research and Development Canada Recherche et développement pour la défense Canada Canada


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