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PY2010-2012 Custom Impact Evaluation – Standalone Net-to-Gross Results Jennifer Fagan, Itron September 4, 2014.

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Presentation on theme: "PY2010-2012 Custom Impact Evaluation – Standalone Net-to-Gross Results Jennifer Fagan, Itron September 4, 2014."— Presentation transcript:

1 PY Custom Impact Evaluation – Standalone Net-to-Gross Results Jennifer Fagan, Itron September 4, 2014

2 METHODS AND DATA SOURCES 2WO033 Standalone NTG Results NTG methodology used for this research was the standard Nonresidential Self-Report Approach (SRA) o Originally developed for evaluation o Refined in early stages of this evaluation Four sources of free-ridership and spillover information: o Program files; o Decision Maker (telephone) surveys o Utility and Program Staff Interviews o Small number of targeted interviews with market actors to substantiate ISP Both CATI and In Depth Interviews – roughly split Weighting of project level results to population Final step – review/adjust for early replacement and dual baseline projects (double counting issue)

3 NUMBER OF COMPLETED SURVEYS 3WO033 Standalone NTG Results Completed Surveys as a Percentage of Total Projects for IOU Core and Third Party Programs A substantial number of NTG surveys were completed, 1,388 in total. These were roughly proportional to the population of completed projects for each IOU

4 NUMBER OF COMPLETED SURVEYS 4WO033 Standalone NTG Results Completed Surveys for Statewide and Local Government Programs Included in this total were 254 surveys completed for projects funded by Statewide Government/Institutional4 and Local Government programs These were not proportional to the population, however

5 DETAILED NTG FINDINGS

6 WEIGHTED NTG RESULTS - STATEWIDE 6WO033 Standalone NTG Results On a Statewide basis, the NTGR across all program categories averaged 0.48 for electric programs and 0.53 for gas programs. These values indicate a resulting medium low level of program influence, and are similar in magnitude to NTGRs from the past several evaluation cycles

7 RESULTS BY IOU

8 NTG RESULTS BY IOU – PG&E ELECTRIC 8WO033 Standalone NTG Results Weighted NTGR across all programs of Little variation pre and post EAR decision Some variation across programs: Higher program influence for: Core Commercial, 3P Heavy Industry EE, 3P Refinery EE and 3P RCx Lower program influence for: Core Industrial, 3P Pump Efficiency, 3P EE Oil/Gas Both Core-Industrial and 3P EEOG reflect the results of legacy POC projects

9 NTG RESULTS BY IOU – PG&E GAS 9WO033 Standalone NTG Results Weighted NTGR across all programs of Some variation pre- and post-EAR decision. Some variation across programs: Higher program influence for: Core Industrial and Agricultural, 3P Heavy Industry EE and 3P RCx Lower program influence for: New Construction, 3P Refinery EE

10 NTG RESULTS BY IOU – SCE ELECTRIC 10WO033 Standalone NTG Results Weighted NTGR across all programs of Very little difference pre and post EAR decision. Some variation across programs: Higher program influence for: Core Industrial, Lower for Core Commercial and Agricultural Among Non-Core programs, generally lower program influence for: New Construction, Other 3P groups

11 NTG RESULTS BY IOU – SDGE ELECTRIC 11WO033 Standalone NTG Results Weighted NTGR across all programs of Little difference pre and post EAR decision. Strongest performance by Local Nonresidential BID program Core programs had medium low program influence Low program influence for New Construction program

12 NTG RESULTS BY IOU – SCG/SDGE GAS 12WO033 Standalone NTG Results Weighted NTGR across all programs of Significant difference pre and post EAR decision. Illustrates how EAR process can lead to improvement in ex-post results. Strong performance by Local Nonresidential BID program Core programs had medium low program influence. Somewhat better performance by Deemed vs. Calculated

13 NTG RESULTS – STATEWIDE PROGRAMS 13WO033 Standalone NTG Results Scope included Statewide Government and Institutional Partnerships. Medium high NTGRs are indicated Results very similar by IOU By program category, results show more variation. The community college partnership has a somewhat lower NTGR (0.47), while the UC/CSU NTGR is moderately higher (0.56). The local government program category has the least favorable result.

14 KEY FACTORS INFLUENCING NTGRS

15 KEY FACTORS APPROACH 15WO033 Standalone NTG Results Predominantly a qualitative approach to examine key project drivers. The intent was to look more deeply, into the qualitative factors that drive the numerical results. Looking for factors that correlate with low/high free ridership programs. Did not do formal regression/correlation coefficient analysis however. First examined the key contextual factors within each project, and then summarized across all evaluated projects within a set group.

16 COMMON THEMES 16WO033 Standalone NTG Results Corporate policy is a major driver of most projects. Corporate standard practice is nearly-universal as a decision influence, along with environmental policies Weaker performing programs exhibited one or more other strong drivers that may be contributing to poor performance. PGE2222 EEOP - a majority of projects have automation benefits in addition to energy savings. Also, a significant percentage of projects were already in an advanced stage. New construction projects have many non-energy efficiency drivers: e.g. firms involved including chains/big box stores are advanced in their adoptions of energy efficiency Replacement of failing equipment a common theme for SCE Core and 3P programs Environmental compliance is present in decisions for UC/CSU, SDGE3117 NR BID, and New Construction pgms

17 EXAMPLE TABLE FOR PG&E PROGRAMS 17WO033 Standalone NTG Results

18 NTG FINDINGS BY VARIABLES OF INTEREST

19 ANALYSIS BY MEASURE TYPE

20 ELECTRIC MEASURES 20WO033 Standalone NTG Results

21 GAS END USES 21WO033 Standalone NTG Results New Construction projects had the lowest NTGRs. Steam trap NTGRs were the highest. These levels are slightly better than Industrial Steam Trap NTGR levels from PY

22 DATA CENTER MEASURES 22WO033 Standalone NTG Results Some conflict with Server Virtualization NTGRs and research by PG&E and others that this measure is becoming standard practice.

23 WATER/WASTEWATER MEASURES 23WO033 Standalone NTG Results Low NTGRs in general, particularly for Aerators and Controls. Suggests that the list of eligible measures needs to be adjusted.

24 HVAC MEASURES 24WO033 Standalone NTG Results Somewhat lower NTGRs for rooftop or split system units and pump VFDs. ISP study may be warranted for these measures

25 AGRICULTURAL PUMP OVERHAUL 25WO033 Standalone NTG Results Similar values for both IOUs, both below Note that the SCE NTGR has dropped significantly since the PY evaluation, which had an NTGR of 0.63.

26 RETROCOMMISSIONING HVAC 26WO033 Standalone NTG Results Medium level of program influence. Results are down significantly from PY , where NTGRs were 0.75 and higher.

27 ANALYSIS BY BASELINE DISPOSITION

28 ELECTRIC RESULTS BY BASELINE STATUS 28WO033 Standalone NTG Results Major Renovation and Add-On Measure categories had the highest levels of program influenced adoptions. Program influence for Capacity Expansion projects was very low Early Replacement results did not make strong case for program influenced adoptions.

29 GAS RESULTS BY BASELINE STATUS 29WO033 Standalone NTG Results Early Replacement present a consistent picture of medium-high program influence. New Construction results consistent with electric Wide variation in results for remaining categories

30 ANALYSIS BY SIZE OF INCENTIVE

31 ELECTRIC RESULTS BY INCENTIVE LEVEL 31WO033 Standalone NTG Results Definitions: Low $200,000/project Results relatively insensitive to incentive level

32 GAS RESULTS BY INCENTIVE LEVEL 32WO033 Standalone NTG Results Gas results similar to Electric - low sensitivity to incentive level

33 ANALYSIS BY BUSINESS TYPE

34 PG&E RESULTS BY BUSINESS TYPE 34WO033 Standalone NTG Results Poorest results are for Water Supply/Irrigation and Sewage Treatment Facilities. Oil/gas extraction also unfavorable. Results for Agriculture, Forestry consistent with Ag Pumping findings. Computer Storage Device Manufacturing NTGRs most favorable. These are manufacturers, not Data Centers

35 SCE RESULTS BY BUSINESS TYPE 35WO033 Standalone NTG Results Similar to PG&E, lowest NTGRs for the Sewage Treatment/Water Supply/Irrigation College and Universities segment had most favorable NTGR, consistent with findings for UC/CSU Statewide Partnership

36 SDG&E/SCG RESULTS BY BUSINESS TYPE 36WO033 Standalone NTG Results College and Universities performed strongest, consistent with other findings for this segment. Petroleum Refinery NTGR consistent with PG&E findings for Oil/Gas Poorest performance for R&D facility category.

37 KEY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

38 CONCLUSIONS 38WO033 Standalone NTG Results Significant free ridership has persisted into this program cycle Statewide NTGRs of 0.48 for electric programs and 0.53 for gas programs. Evaluated NTGRs similar in magnitude to those dating back to PY1998. Insufficient adjustments have been made with respect to either program designs or implementation procedures in order to reduce free ridership. Certain market segments and energy efficient measure categories experienced higher free ridership. Water/Wastewater and Agricultural Pump Overhauls had particularly low NTGRs

39 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 39WO033 Standalone NTG Results Adopt procedures to identify and affect projects with low program influence. Adjust the set of technologies that are eligible for incentives Actively highlight and promote technologies that are less well-adopted, cutting edge, or emerging technologies Designating the proper baseline is critical Incent based on bundling of mandatory requirements or optional features Use a comprehensive rather than a prescriptive approach to discourage free ridership.

40 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 40WO033 Standalone NTG Results Adopt procedures to limit or exclude known free riders. Critically examine the key reasons behind the project before the incentive is approved, for example: Has the project already been included in the capital or operating budget? Has the equipment already been ordered or installed? Is the measure one that the company or other comparable companies in the same industry/segment routinely installs as a standard practice? Is the measure installed in other locations, without co-funding by incentives? Is the measure potentially ISP? Is the project being done, in part, to comply with regulatory mandates (such as environmental regulations)? Are the project economics already compelling without incentives? Is the rebate large enough to make a difference in whether or not the project is implemented? Is the company in a market segment that is ahead of the curve on energy efficiency technology installations? Is it part of a national chain that already has a corporate policy to install the proposed technology?

41 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 41WO033 Standalone NTG Results Adopt procedures to limit or exclude known free riders. Critically examine the key reasons behind the project before the incentive is approved, for example: Is the company in a market segment that is ahead of the curve on energy efficiency technology installations? Is it part of a national chain that already has a corporate policy to install the proposed technology? Does the proposed measure have substantial non-energy benefits? Is it largely being considered for non-energy reasons (such as improved quality or increased production)? By conducting a brief interview before the incentive is approved, the implementer can better assess the likely degree of free ridership and can then decide if the project should be excluded or substantially re-scoped. Each item above can be tied to a new or enhanced program rule or guidance and program administrators can point to these requirements and minimize concerns over unfair/arbitrary decisionmaking.

42 KEY RECOMMENDATIONS 42WO033 Standalone NTG Results Make and/or pilot changes to the incentive design Consider tiering incentives by technology class. Adopt a Payback Floor, excluding projects for which the payback time is less than 12 months. Offer bonuses to incent desirable behavior, e.g., installation of multiple measures or installation by a first-time participant Use a sophisticated program design reflecting a comprehensive mix of program features and leveraging an array of delivery channels Use a broad mix of program features and delivery channels to market projects. More information is needed on industrial project costs, non-energy costs and benefits, net present value analysis, and associated participant cost-effectiveness analysis. Rules of thumb, such as assuming that incentives represent half of incremental costs, appear to have been used instead of actual incremental costs, as proxies.

43 THANK YOU CONSULTING & ANALYSIS GROUP 1111 Broadway Oakland, CA


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