Presentation on theme: "Transforming Energy Business: A Global Sustainability Challenge Energie Nederland Conferentie, Den Haag, June 16, 2014 Wolf Ketter Work done."— Presentation transcript:
Transforming Energy Business: A Global Sustainability Challenge Energie Nederland Conferentie, Den Haag, June 16, 2014 Wolf Ketter Work done with: John Collins, Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters, Konstantina Valogianni, and many others. Erasmus Centre for Future Energy Business
2 Shale gas / Fracking Rising Demand Rising Prices Financial Crisis Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions Fukushima Some countries phase out nuclear power production By 2030, world economy set to double and energy demand to rise by 1/3 Crimea Conflict Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil US gains more independence from foreign fossil fuels Global Energy Markets are Facing a New Reality Energie- wende Transition to renewables without losing reliability & competitiveness!
3 Electricity $371bn business (in the US, 2011, Source: OECD) one million e-vehicles on US roads by 2020 (Kassakian et al., The future of the electric grid, 2011) $4.5tn annual digital economy spending (Gartner Group, 2013) $10bn cost for a major US blackout (Fox-Penner, Rethinking the Grid, 2005)
Energizer… Please stand up…
Energizer… Everybody please keep standing, if you... Think renewable energy is essential for a sustainable future? Think that Dutch energy policy has to be changed to achieve a sustainable future? Is your business prepared for a sustainable future? Have you or any of your friends/family used some form of renewable energy in the last year (PV, CHP, etc.)? Changed ALL of your light blubs to low energy? Drive an electric vehicle (EV)? Know your energy usage for the year?
“Charging a flat rate for electricity is like charging a flat price per pound for all items in a grocery store. What would happen if everything that came out of the cow — steak, hamburger, suet, bones, and hide — were priced at the average cost per pound?” – Alfred Kahn
20 Competitive Benchmarking A Way of Doing Design Science for Wicked Problems
Power TAC Scenario
Power TAC 2014 World Championship 5-6 May at AAMAS in Paris
24 Results: 2012 Pilot vs Finals vs Finals New entries matter! Strategies matter! Context matters!
Some Anecdotal Evidence for CB’s Efficacy
JOIN IN! Key Advantages Robust results Leverage the abilities of top research groups Annually updated research challenges (cf. Netflix) Tournament vs. research mode Annual Circle Competitive Benchmarking
Infrastructure Inter-firm Research Streams Energy Markets 27 Society Firm Individual Energy Finance and Trading Revenue and Demand Management Energy Economics Energy Policy Prosumer Preferences Prosumer Demand Response Energy Network Management Energy Information Systems
Smart Electricity Markets
Autonomous Retail Electricity Brokerage
Smart Charging Research Questions Vision of the solution 30
Results: Peak Demand Reduction Peak Demand Reshaping Valley filling This curve is steady state for one customer with specific charging flexibility Overall price reduction Direct result of peak reduction Aggregate effect on all the customers 31
Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles I Electric Vehicle Fleet Owner as Virtual Power Plant Aggregator Offer mobility services to customers Trade idle EV battery capacity on energy and reserve markets Trade off customer mobility with balancing revenues 32
Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles II Research Type 1: Triple Bottom Line Impact of Large EV Fleets Lower electricity prices for consumers at large (People). Decrease in CO 2 emissions (Planet). Benefits for fleet owners (Profit). Research Type 2: Carsharing Fleets with Ancillary Services Increased revenues for carsharing operator More balancing capacity available on the reserve market Balancing capacity is dynamically scalable with prices 33
How can we incentivize the users to charge their EVs in a way that is efficient for the grid considering the individual differences in behavior? Investigating Behavior of EV users under Variable Pricing 34 What effect do the incentives have on producer and consumer surplus? To what extent do users adjust their charging behavior in response to variable tariffs? Lack of studies on the behavior of EV users No available data on EV users and their charging behavior Variable pricing is not yet offered by providers
35 Future Work Do Competitive Benchmarking! Platform Extensions: Negotiation, Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), E- Vehicle Models, … Behavioral Smart Charging and VPP
Erasmus Energy Forum 2014 Themes: EU Policy and Markets Energy Micro Grids & New Business Models Financing Sustainable Energy Business Day 19 June, Rotterdam Hotel Presentations Panel Discussions Networking Business Award Exclusive Diner Science Day 20 June, University Rotterdam Paper and Poster Presentations Networking Science Award
A 20 TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM 37 Extraction Transport Storage Refinery Distribution Customer
A 21 TH CENTURY ECOSYSTEM 38 Extraction Transport Storage Refinery Distribution Customer/ Prosumer
“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford
5 th Avenue, New York April, th Avenue, New York April, 1900
5 th Avenue, New York March, 1913
Wolf Ketter Get in
44 Results: 2012 Pilot vs Finals
45 Results: 2012 Pilot vs Finals New entries matter!
46 Results: 2012 Pilot vs Finals New entries matter! Strategies matter!
47 Results: 2012 Pilot vs Finals New entries matter! Strategies matter! Context matters!