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KMG Investors Presentation July 2011. 1. KMG Group Overview and Recent Developments.

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Presentation on theme: "KMG Investors Presentation July 2011. 1. KMG Group Overview and Recent Developments."— Presentation transcript:

1 KMG Investors Presentation July 2011

2 1. KMG Group Overview and Recent Developments

3 KMG (Baa3/BB+/BBB-) – Government “Arm” in Kazakhstan’s Oil & Gas Industry KMG is fully owned by the Government, through Samruk-Kazyna Represents interests of the Republic of Kazakhstan in the strategically important oil & gas sector Represents the State in exercising its pre-emptive rights with private industry players in E&P projects Right to acquire 100% of all new onshore and 50% of offshore fields/licenses M&A policy aims to strengthen the State’s role in the oil & gas sector and to consolidate control of the domestic oil products’ market Representing state interests Diversified asset base Stakes in almost all significant oil & gas assets in Kazakhstan with A+B+C1 reserves of 948.1 mn tonnes of oil and 102.2 bcm of gas Currently participates directly in equity of 33 (1) oil & gas related companies in Kazakhstan and abroad Control over KMG EP (60.70%), the largest public exploration and production company in Central Asia Participation in JVs operating and exploring some of the world’s largest oil fields: NCPC (Kashagan) (c.17%), and TCO (Tengiz field) (20%) Other participations in exploration and production JVs: MMG (50%) (2), KazakhOil Aktobe (50%) (2), KazGerMunai (50%) (3), PKI (33%) (3), MMG and KazakhOil Aktobe stakes to be transferred to KMG EP by the end of 2010 subject to regulatory approvals Joint or sole control over the largest oil & gas pipeline networks in Kazakhstan (combined length of 19.9 thousand km) Joint or sole control over all three refineries in Kazakhstan and two in Romania (combined capacity of 23.3 mmt/year) Marketing and sales of oil products in Kazakhstan and in Europe Key financials (1) Company data (2) The Company and KMG EP reached an agreement pursuant to which the Company will transfer its 50% in MIBV (the joint venture entity through which the Company holds a 50 per cent. interest in MMG), its 50% interest in Kazakhoil Aktobe LLP and its 51% in Kazakturkmunai Ltd. to KMG EP. KMG EP will pay the Company total cash consideration of U.S.$750 million and assume total net debt of U.S.$1,499 million (3) Through KMG EP KMG Group Overview and Recent Developments Leading vertically integrated company operating in every major segment of the oil & gas industry, including upstream, midstream and downstream 2009 revenue of US$10.8 bn, 2009 EBITDA of US$4.2 bn 2010 revenue of US$14.24 bn, 2010 EBITDA of US$5.6 bn Source: Company data

4 KMG – Recent Developments Funding & Liquidity & Credit Ratings Upstream In July 2010, KMG proceeded with transfer of major upstream assets to KMG EP in its role of the main upstream assets consolidator in Kazakhstan –Transfer of Kazakhstan Aktobe (50%), Kazakturkmunai (51%) and Mangistau Investments (50%, the owner of 100% Mangistaumunaigas) –The ensuing total net debt corresponding to the stakes acquired is US$1,499mn In November 2009, jointly with CNPC, acquired 50% of Mangistaumunaigas (MMG) for c. US$2.6bn In October 2008, KMG raised its interest in NCPC from 8.33% to 16.81% Downstream Acquisition of Pavlodar refinery completed in 3Q09 KMG is currently in negotiations to purchase Helios, the largest gas retail network in Kazakhstan, which was part of the MMG Group Transportation Significant increase in KMG’s throughput capacity in CPC pipeline through acquisition of 49.9% stake in KPV (CPC’s shareholder) for a total consideration of US$250mn Completion and commissioning of Asian Gas Pipeline – Turkmen gas transit to China Beineu – Bozoi – Shymkent mainline pipeline’s construction initiated with a planned completion in 2012. (1)Based on KZT denominated amounts at the end of period exchange rate 1 USD = 147.46 KZT and average exchange rate of KZT147.26 (2)Includes short-term financial assets of US$6.1bn In July 2010, Kazakhstan re-introduced the export customs duty on crude oil at the rate of US$20/tonne In 2009 Kazakhstan enacted a new Tax Code (corporate income tax reduced to 20% for 2009-2012, to 17.5% in 2013, to 15% from 2014 onwards) Changes in oil & gas fiscal regime: a new mineral extraction tax replacing royalties and a rent tax replacing the oil export duty, different excess profit tax structure Strategic Developments Tax regime changes Reorganisation 6 During 2010, KMG raised US$1.5bn. Eurobonds (10-yr.t.7.25%), US$1.5bn inter-company loan from KMG EP (3-yr.t., 7% coupon), US$1.25bn. Eurobonds (10.5-yr.t.6.375%) At the end of 2010, KMG had a consolidated cash position of US$8.65bn and short-term financial assets (predominantly consisting of term deposits in Kazakhstan banks) of US$6.1bn In Dec. 2010, KMG raised KZT100bn. zero-coupon bonds (7-yr.t., 7% effective coupon rate) at the local market During the same month S&P increased KMG’s credit rating up to BBB-/RR4 On January 17 th 2011 S-K extended KMG a 23.3bn loan (13-yr.t., 2% p.a.) for project financing. Refining, Marketing and Retail Enhancing operational efficiency – Divesting non-core assets – Corporate centre to optimise costs Consolidating core businesses into five segments across legal entities Deleveraging and optimising financial structure of Rompetrol Upstream: Consolidation of principal E&P assets under KMG EP Oil transportation Oil &Gas Services Gas Transportation

5 2. Kazakhstan Oil Industry Overview

6 Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Industry Overview – Upstream #18 global and #2 CIS producer #10 globally in terms of 1P reserves Tengiz, Karachaganak and Kashagan to provide 70% of oil and 85% of gas production in Kazakhstan Predominant part of reserves located in Pre-Caspian and Mangyshlak basins – North Eastern side of the Caspian Sea 2010 Global Liquids Production 2010 Global 1P reserves Source: Wood MackenzieSource: BP Statistical Review 2010 Production in Kazakhstan Kazakhstan: 3.9 bn boe Kazakhstan: 1.7 mmboe/d Total: 1.9 mmboe/d 8Kazakhstan Oil Industry Overview

7 Kazakhstan Oil & Gas Industry Overview – Midstream and Downstream Transportation Kazakhstan is key focal point in the transportation of oil & gas from Central Asia to Europe and China Kazakhstan transportation networks are largely controlled by KMG –Oil pipelines via KTO – transported 50.8 mln tonnes of crude oil in 2009, 65 mln tonnes in 2010 –Gas pipelines transported 73.2 bln. m cubed of gas in 2009, 94 bln. m cubed of gas in 2010 –A number of major new pipelines are completed, jointly with CNPC: Kazakhstan-China Pipeline (3 rd segment – Kenkiyak-Kumkol - completed in October 2009) and Asian Gas Pipeline (Kazakh section completed in December 2009) –Infrastructure investments are key for serving international markets in Asia and Europe –Several areas of growth, including upgrades and new pipelines to Russia and China Source: Company Data Refining & Marketing Refining / Downstream industry is now primarily in KMG’s control –Three principal refineries with total refining capacity of up to 18 mln tonnes per year:  Atyrau: Western region (5.0 mln tonnes per year);  Shymkent: Southern region (5.5 mln tonnes per year);  Pavlodar: Northern region (7.5 mln tonnes per year) –In 2009, the three refineries produced 11.2 mln tonnes of refined products, while in 2010 this amount reached 12 mln tonnes 9Kazakhstan Oil Industry Overview Oil pipelines Gas pipelines Refineries Cities 2 1 3 2 1 Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) Uzen-Atyrau-Samara Atasu-Alashankou Central Asia-Center (Kaz) Okarem-Turkmenbashi-Beineu (Kaz)

8 3. Business Overview

9 Group Structure Exploration & ProductionTransportationRefining and SalesOthers KMG EP - 60.70% (1) TCO - 20% Kashagan – 16.8% MMG - 50% 3 KazakhOil Aktobe - 50% 3 KazTurkMunai - 51% 3 KazMunaiTeniz - 100% KazTransOil - 100% KazTransGas - 100% KazRosGas - 50% KazMorTransFlot - 100% CPC – 20.75% (2) Kaz Pipeline Ventures - 100% KMG-TransCaspian - 100% KMG RM - 100% –Rompetrol - 100% –Atyrau - 99.17% –Shymkent - 49.72% –Pavlodar - 58% (4) KPI - 50% TenizService - 49% KING (R&D) - 83.9% (1)As at March 30th 2011, as a percentage of ordinary voting shares of KMG EP (2)19% through the government and 1.75% through KPV (3)The Company and KMG EP reached an agreement pursuant to which the Company will transfer its 50% in MIBV (the joint venture entity through which the Company holds a 50 per cent. interest in MMG), its 50% interest in Kazakhoil Aktobe LLP and its 51% in Kazakturkmunai Ltd. to KMG EP. KMG EP will pay the Company total cash consideration of U.S.$750 million and assume total net debt of U.S.$1,499 million. (4)The Company owns a 100% interest in Refinery Company RT, which owns all of the assets of the Pavlodar Refinery, together with a 58% in Pavlodar Refinery JSC, the entity owning the licences to operate the Pavlodar Refinery (with the remaining 42% in Pavlodar Refinery JSC being held by the State). Refinery Company RT leases 100% of the assets comprising Pavlodar Refinery to Pavlodar Refinery JSC, which then operates the Pavlodar Refinery Transport Source: Company Data 100% 11Business Overview

10 Key Operational Data Source: Company data 13Business Overview FY 2010:  Average price of $80/bbl which is 29% higher than 2009  Oil production increases mainly due to 50% share in MMG EP  Oil transport at KCP increased  Asia Gas Pipeline started operation  Reduced volumes at KTG due to decreased volumes to Gazprom  Oil processed increased due to full consolidation of Pavlodar Refinery  Oil traded at Rompetrol increased given high demand and high oil price Forecast:  Oil production increases at KMG EP after increased Capex and Kashagan starts production in Q4 2012  Oil transport of CPC and gas transport of AsiaGasPipeline increase in 2012 with start of Kashagan. But, ICA volume decreases as of 2011 due to lower volumes to Gazprom  Oil processed increases in Rompetrol in 2012 after the modernization  Oil traded increases gradually

11 KMG Upstream Snapshot 2010 Oil Production Volumes (1) 2010 Gas Production Volumes (1)Proportionate consolidation of JVs (2)The Company’s A+B+C1 reserves that are attributable to the Company Source: Company data 14Business Overview

12 Major Role in Upstream: KMG EP KMG owns approximately 60.7% of KMG EP shares (1) KMG EP is the largest public oil and gas company in Kazakhstan KMG EP accounted for around 49% of KMG’s oil production in 2009 Production to stay stable due to enhanced recovery techniques The Uzen field is the largest oil field of KMG EP and has been in production since 1965 Transfer of Kazakhstan Aktobe (50%), Kazakturkmunai (51%) and Mangistau Investments (50%, the owner of 100% Mangistaumunaigas) from KMG is being carried out Source: Company data, Datastream, Bloomberg 15Business Overview (1)As at March 30 2010, as a percentage of ordinary voting shares of KMG EP. KMG EP’s share price evolution (US$)

13 Launched in 2000 and is part of the North Caspian Project Consortium (NCPC) –One of the world’s largest oil fields –The parties to the NC PSA estimate that the Kashagan field has 7 to 9 billion bbl of recoverable crude oil –A+B+C1 reserves of crude oil of 127.9 mln tonnes attributable to KMG on a consolidated basis The project development involves building artificial islands in shallow water, with land rigs to drill wells as opposed to conventional platforms –Experimental phase of the project completed, with the construction of five artificial islands in the Caspian Sea and 40 wells, including 30 production wells and ten injection wells –Production expected to start in 4Q2012 Final agreement signed in October 2008 with Kazakh authorities implementing operational and governance framework –Replaced single operator with new joint operating entity comprising seven participants –In October 2008, parties agreed to sell approved 8.48% stake to KazMunaiGaz NC for a consideration of US$1.78 billion –Rotating leadership, operatorship to be passed to KazMunayGaz NC on start-up, once development stages are completed (Shell to act as a partner in managing production operations) Kashagan - Project Overview Overview Source: Company data Current participation overview (NCPC) 16Business Overview

14 Major Role in Upstream: TCO Established in 1993 to develop the Tengiz field, which is operated by Chevron Crude oil reserves of 233.8 mln tonnes (1,777 mmboe) KMG’s stake is 20% –Veto right over major decisions, chairmanship of the management committee –Regulating role on behalf of the Government (this role may move to recently created Ministry of Oil & Gas) –Dividends from TCO represented approx. 70% of total dividends for KMG over the last three years Export via CPC pipeline and railways Major growth in 2008 with 2 nd generation plant completed TCO is undertaking future generation expansion project in the Tengiz Field after receiving all the necessary approvals by the appropriate regulatory authorities and partners in July 2010. The project is expected to further increase TCO’s oil field production and plant processing capacity. The cost of the project is expected to be up to US$18bn and is expected to be completed in 2016 Source: Company data (1)20% attributable to KMG Ownership Structure Source: Company data 17Business Overview

15 Control Over Midstream: KazTransOil & KazTransGas KTO Natural monopoly oil pipeline operator in Kazakhstan 7,277 km of pipelines Operates three transportation companies: KTO, KCP and MunayTas –KTO’s major asset is the Uzen-Atyrau-Samara (connection to Transneft) pipeline –KCP is a joint venture between KTO and CNODC (50/50%) – pipeline to China –MunayTas is a joint venture between KTO and CNPC E&D (51/49%) Following the completion of Kenkiyak-Kumkol Pipeline (1 of the 3 sections of the pipelines to China) in October 2009 KTO is now able to transport crude from western Kazakhstan to China Transported 16.4 mln. tonnes in 2010 via primary pipelines KTG Operates the largest gas pipeline network in Kazakhstan through ICA The major asset is the Central Asia-Centre gas pipeline (CAC) from Turkmenistan to Russia Large projects: –In December 2009, the first phase of the Asia Gas Pipeline, comprising a pipeline with a throughput capacity of 40 bcm per year, was completed –Future Beyneu-Shymkent pipeline (up to 10 bcm p.a.) –Pre-Caspian pipeline to Russia (40 bcm p.a., including 10 bcm of Kazakhstani gas) Oil & Gas Transportation Terminals / Infrastructures Shuttle vessels Existing oil pipelines New oil pipeline projects Gas pipelines Refinery Source: EIA 18Business Overview

16 Consolidated Downstream: KMG Refining and Marketing KMG Refining and Marketing (1) (“KMG RM”) is the 100% owned principal refining and trading company of the KMG group An integrated downstream arm of KMG KMG RM’s strategy: –Increase sales volume to utilise spare capacity of refineries KMG RM’s principal refinery assets: Dedicated investments in gas stations resulted in leading retail position in Kazakhstan (e.g. 259 stations and c.21% market share) In June 2009, KMG RM acquired the remaining 25% of Rompetrol, Romania’s 2nd largest oil group In September 2010, KMG’s ownership (which is held through Rompetrol) in Rompetrol Rafinare (owning Petromidia refinery) was reduced to 54% In connection with the purchase of the Pavlodar Refinery, KMG is also considering the purchase of the Helios filling station retail network, the largest downstream company in terms of volume of refined products sold in Kazakhstan Volumes Produced (ktonne) in 2010 Refinery KMG RM Ownership Designed Refining Capacity (mln tonnes/year) Atyrau (Kazakhstan) 99.17%4.5 Shymkent (Kazakhstan) 49.72%5.25 Pavlodar (Kazakhstan) 100.00% 5.0 Petromidia (Romania) 54.00% (2) 5.0 Vega (Romania) 98.00% (3) 0.3 Note: Utilization rate by refinery is calculated as total volume produced divided by the designed refining capacity (1)Previously KMG Trade House (2)Via Rompetrol, as of September 2010 (3)Via Rompetrol Source: Company data 19 Business Overview Product mixture of KMG RM Refineries in 2010

17 4. Financial Summary

18 Financial Summary of Core Assets (1) 100% ownership: Investors’ Change of Control Put if Government ownership drops below 100% National Company KazMunayGas The core group of Material Subsidiaries of which KMG must maintain control (1) All financials based on separate IFRS statements of each subsidiary at 2009 year-end and 1H2010; Last twelve months (LTM) EBITDA = EBITDA 1H2010 +EBITDA 2009 – EBITDA 1H2009: cash figures include short-term bank deposits; EOP exchange rate: 1H2010 1US$ =147.46KZT; Average exchange rate: 1H2010 1US$ = 147.26KZT; 1H2009 1US$ = 145.0KZT, 2009 1US$ = 147.66KZT (2) Includes short term financial assets of US$6.1bn (3) Includes interest payable on debt securities (4) Including lease obligations (5) TCO figures are based on financials prepared based on standards as defined in the partnership agreement and adjusted for IFRS compliance (6) To be transferred to KMG EP by the end of 2010 KTG (100%)KTO (100%)KMG EP (61.4%)KMG RM (100%)TCO (20%) (5) MMG - (50%) (6) 30 June 2010 (US$ mn) Assets2,884 Cash400 Debt (3) 921 LTM EBITDA742 30 June 2010 (US$ mn) Assets2,152 Cash339 Debt4 LTM EBITDA427 30 June 2010 (US$ mn) Assets9,277 Cash4,731 Debt947 LTM EBITDA1,962 30 June 2010 (US$ mn) Assets7,972 Cash451 Debt (4) 4,480 LTM EBITDA149 30 June 2010 (US$ mn) Assets8,948 Cash785 Debt2,852 LTM EBITDA9,413 2009 (US$ mn) Assets1,863 Cash109 Debt136 EBITDA783 22Financial Summary 100%

19 Financial Performance Revenue (US$ mn) EBITDA (US$mn) Capex (US$ mn) Total Debt and Leverage (US$mn and Multiple) Source: KMG’s audited financials, based on equity accounting for 2008 and 2009, Company data 23Financial Summary

20 Historical and Planned Capex Historical Capex (US$ bn) Financial Summary  2008 project CAPEX/Maintenance CAPEX – 0%/67%  2009 project CAPEX/Maintenance CAPEX – 60%/40%  2010 project CAPEX/Maintenance CAPEX – 65%/35% 24 2010 total capex breakdown Note: Exchange used 1US$=147.50 KZT (2009) Source: Company data

21 KMG Group Debt Breakdown and Financing Policy Debt Breakdown KMG’s future financial policy Objectives of financial management: –Monitor leverage and take steps to reduce or term out debt –Maintain optimal working capital position at the subsidiary level –Maintain high level of financial flexibility of KMG group Finance projects without using balance sheet: –Non-recourse project financing –JV partner taking majority of financing burden –Acquisition financing with limited recourse to acquired asset and its dividend flow Borrow at the KMG level and use this liquidity as needed by different parts of the group KMG’s financial policy targets –Total Debt / EBITDA < 3.5x –Net Debt / Net Capitalisation < 0.5 25Financial Summary US$ mn 11 551 14 547 15 415

22 5. Investment Highlights

23 Investment Highlights High Strategic Importance to the Government Vertically Integrated Group 1.Most significant asset of the Government 2.Significant portfolio of large-scale exploration projects onshore and offshore to drive long-term production growth (e.g. Kashagan) 3.Strategic pre-emptive rights 4.Largest oil producer in Central Asia 5.Midstream: control over oil and gas pipeline infrastructure 6.Downstream control: downstream capabilities including three major refineries across Kazakhstan and Rompetrol assets in Europe 28Investment Highlights

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