1. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D. ISP & MTA Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government HARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004

2. Mustafa Kibaroglu2 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future The Past: 500 years of historical relations (1492 – 1992) The Present: Strategic relations since 1992 (“win-win”) The Future: Crossroads ahead? (“win-win” or “loose-loose”)

3. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu3 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future...Ottomans embraced the persecuted Jews of Spain in 1492...Jews have been loyal to the Ottoman Sultan...Jews occupied high ranks in the Ottoman administration...Jews supported Turkey’s War of Liberation in 1919-1922...200 000 Jews had minority status in Turkey after Lausanne...Most Jews gone to Israel but some 25 000 remain in Turkey

4. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu4 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future...Turkey recognized the State of Israel in 1949...Ben Gurion sought close relations with Adnan Menderes...Turkish domestic politics and religion obstructed relations...NATO membership limited Turkey’s interest in M. East...Yom Kippur War and OPEC crisis deteriorated relations...Coup in Turkey; Jerusalem Law; Intifada worsened

5. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu5 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future...Gulf crisis & demise of USSR made Turkey turn to M. East...Peace Processes lifted Arabs’ tacit embargo on Turkey...Redefinition of the relations as “alliance”; “axis”; “entente”...Common concerns: “rogue states” & military capabilities...Military cooperation agreement (1996): “odd men out”...Turkey becomes “virtual strategic depth” of Israel

6. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu6 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future

7. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu7 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future...Potentially clashing interests over northern Iraq...Turks’ concerns with an independent Kurdish state in Iraq...Israelis’ concerns with “Islamic” Turkish government(s)...Turks’ misperceptions about Jewish influence in US politics...Bitter political statements by Turkish statesmen...Israelis may prefer relying on Kurds rather than Turks

8. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu8 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future

9. December 2, 2004Mustafa Kibaroglu9 Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future...“win-win” if confidence and trust can be restored...“loose-loose” if misperceptions & miscalculation persist...War against terror cannot be won with nukes or shields...Intelligence & information gathering is essential...Turkey’s commonalities with M. East & C. Asia are crucial...Strategic wisdom must prevail on both sides or both loose

10. Turkish-Israeli Relations: Past, Present and Future MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D. ISP & MTA Fellow Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs John F. Kennedy School of Government HARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 2, 2004