Presentation on theme: "1 Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 www.cartercenter.org www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov www.cartercenter.org Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran."— Presentation transcript:
1 Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 www.cartercenter.org www.jimmycarterlibrary.gov www.cartercenter.org Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran
2 The Agenda Human rights, restrictions on arms sales Criticizes HK’s secret diplomacy As a world power, US has moral responsibility to adjust foreign policy to basic principles of human rights “Human rights are the soul of our foreign policy” open support to Russian dissidents
3 …agenda Energy program within the first 90 days James Schlesinger-an economist devoted to conservation Department of Energy is created “The Moral Equivalent of War” Program based on less consumption and conservation Consensus cannot be built – “Meow”
4 Relations with Iran RN and HK with time considered Iran “The Big Pillar” Blank check: no restrictions on arms sales Shah did not join embargo Border with USSR **Despite DoD opinion Strong conventional army more appropriate than sophisticated weapons
5 Relations with Iran **Despite Saudi Arabia ill feeling Yamani’s prophecy: “If the shah departs from the stage, we could also have a violent, anti-American regine in Teheran”
6 Does all this change with Carter? As a matter of fact, there is no change Despite the shah’s being “way down the list of tyrants” and Savak’s brutality The hard truth is that there is no strategic alternative Besides, shah stops battle for higher prices This is in line with US “Price Freeze Offensive” Cyrus Vance’s reassuring visit to Teheran, May 1977
7 The shah in Washington-Nov 77 Dissidents and tear gas US media coverage leads Iran to believe US support to shah has ended Conversations with Carter-shah’s formal commitment to join Arabia in moderating prices Dec 77: Carter’s visit to Teheran, also to show that US support continues The toast: “an island of stability”….
8 Origins of revolution Long-standing acrimony between the shah’s regime and the Shiite clergy Very bad use of petrodollars Economic chaos, political and social tensions Rural population moving to towns; infrastructures totally unfit Beneficiary of situation: Ayatollah Khomeini-his hatred of shah equal to hatred of US
9 ….revolution Khomeini son’s murder (end ‘77) and newspaper insulting article (Jan ‘78) make situation worse Disorders in Qom-spiritual home Slain and 40-day mourning, more riots and slain, 40 more mourning days Riots and killings spread in the country Shah realizes seriousness of situation, but is sure to get the upper hand; accelerates liberalization
10 ….revolution US also believes shah will prevail Intelligence limitations-Cia’s caution Estimate Sept. 78: shah expected to remain in power for next ten years Nobody knew he was ill Sept 78: demonstrations in Teheran mark the turning point Liberalization goes on, but Govt starts falling apart
11 The situation grows worse Strikes in oil fields-production falls From 4,5mb/d to less than 1mb/d Stability depends on oil revenues NIOC in great difficulty Shah installs military Govt US badly informed; distracted by Camp David, SALT, China, convinced of Soviet-orchestrated plot; send mixed signals
12 Departure Nov 78: Amb. Sullivan’s report “Thinking the unthinkable” Carter asks why nobody informed him First high level meeting in Washington Dec 78: demonstrations across country; forceful incitement from Khomeini Plans for evacuation from oil fields Oil exports cease; western employees leave They assume to be back soon, just as in 1953
13 The Last Act Jan 79: shah also leaves as for a period of rest First stop: Egypt It’s the end of the Pahlavi dynasty Jubilation Iran-Feb 1, Khomeini arrives with revolutionary council that forms new Govt. Mehdi Bazargan: his role with Mossadegh US Emb: “Army surrenders; Khomeini wins; destroying all classified” The world is shaken: is it the 2nd oil crisis?