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1 Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran.

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1 1 Jimmy Carter – 1976-1980 Human rights Energy program Relations with Iran

2 2 The Agenda  Human rights, restrictions on arms sales  Criticizes HK’s secret diplomacy  As a world power, US has moral responsibility to adjust foreign policy to basic principles of human rights  “Human rights are the soul of our foreign policy”  open support to Russian dissidents

3 3 …agenda  Energy program within the first 90 days  James Schlesinger-an economist devoted to conservation  Department of Energy is created  “The Moral Equivalent of War”  Program based on less consumption and conservation  Consensus cannot be built – “Meow”

4 4 Relations with Iran  RN and HK with time considered Iran “The Big Pillar”  Blank check: no restrictions on arms sales Shah did not join embargo Border with USSR  **Despite DoD opinion Strong conventional army more appropriate than sophisticated weapons

5 5 Relations with Iran  **Despite Saudi Arabia ill feeling  Yamani’s prophecy: “If the shah departs from the stage, we could also have a violent, anti-American regine in Teheran”

6 6 Does all this change with Carter?  As a matter of fact, there is no change Despite the shah’s being “way down the list of tyrants” and Savak’s brutality  The hard truth is that there is no strategic alternative  Besides, shah stops battle for higher prices  This is in line with US “Price Freeze Offensive”  Cyrus Vance’s reassuring visit to Teheran, May 1977

7 7 The shah in Washington-Nov 77  Dissidents and tear gas  US media coverage leads Iran to believe US support to shah has ended  Conversations with Carter-shah’s formal commitment to join Arabia in moderating prices  Dec 77: Carter’s visit to Teheran, also to show that US support continues  The toast: “an island of stability”….

8 8 Origins of revolution  Long-standing acrimony between the shah’s regime and the Shiite clergy  Very bad use of petrodollars  Economic chaos, political and social tensions  Rural population moving to towns; infrastructures totally unfit  Beneficiary of situation: Ayatollah Khomeini-his hatred of shah equal to hatred of US

9 9 ….revolution  Khomeini son’s murder (end ‘77) and newspaper insulting article (Jan ‘78) make situation worse  Disorders in Qom-spiritual home  Slain and 40-day mourning, more riots and slain, 40 more mourning days  Riots and killings spread in the country  Shah realizes seriousness of situation, but is sure to get the upper hand; accelerates liberalization

10 10 ….revolution  US also believes shah will prevail  Intelligence limitations-Cia’s caution  Estimate Sept. 78: shah expected to remain in power for next ten years  Nobody knew he was ill  Sept 78: demonstrations in Teheran mark the turning point  Liberalization goes on, but Govt starts falling apart

11 11 The situation grows worse  Strikes in oil fields-production falls From 4,5mb/d to less than 1mb/d  Stability depends on oil revenues  NIOC in great difficulty  Shah installs military Govt  US badly informed; distracted by Camp David, SALT, China, convinced of Soviet-orchestrated plot; send mixed signals

12 12 Departure  Nov 78: Amb. Sullivan’s report “Thinking the unthinkable”  Carter asks why nobody informed him  First high level meeting in Washington  Dec 78: demonstrations across country; forceful incitement from Khomeini  Plans for evacuation from oil fields  Oil exports cease; western employees leave They assume to be back soon, just as in 1953

13 13 The Last Act  Jan 79: shah also leaves as for a period of rest  First stop: Egypt  It’s the end of the Pahlavi dynasty  Jubilation Iran-Feb 1, Khomeini arrives with revolutionary council that forms new Govt. Mehdi Bazargan: his role with Mossadegh  US Emb: “Army surrenders; Khomeini wins; destroying all classified”  The world is shaken: is it the 2nd oil crisis?

14 14 Camp David Accords Sept. 1978 

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