Presentation on theme: "Conferences and Research Trips entral to how we work and the value we add to clients are our conferences and research trips. We believe that the only way."— Presentation transcript:
Conferences and Research Trips entral to how we work and the value we add to clients are our conferences and research trips. We believe that the only way to make successful investments in Asia is to get out into the field and meet the people who make decisions as well as those who know what is going on. There is no mystery to the approach, all it needs is access to the right people and knowledge of who really knows what is happening - and even more important what may happen next. C onferences are held on location in Asia for clients once a quarter, unless breaking events require a special conference more frequently. The outcomes are relayed to those unable to attend the conferences. C onferences fall into three types. 6-18 month medium-term perspective on a market and its economy Broad investment themes Timely market or country assessments. C Aimed at Chief Investment Officers, Particularly those Outside Asia who Need a Speedy, In-Depth Update and Insight Asia is full of insiders with insight. They are the heart of our networks
hese have proved very reliable guides to the future. From China’s attitude to the yuan to corporate restructuring in Korea we have established views that were both against the consensus and proven right. Conferences and Research Trips ll aspects of an important issue are covered within 24-48 hours. We are very mindful of how pressed for time fund managers are. Sometimes We Put Two Topics Together So As To Make The Travel Worthwhile. We invite a wide range of informed people who are all expert in one aspect of the issue to talk with us for about 1hour - this provides plenty of time to get to the bottom of a topic. Usually they are people we know very well who are therefore comfortable to speak frankly to us. The forum of only 8-10 participants encourages openness through dialogue and straight talking, stripped of official rhetoric or defensiveness e meet with policy makers, international agencies, corporate leaders, bankers and observers in the media and academe. From different angles they all help to build the complete picture of a particular issue. A W Provide a View that Stays Relevant for 6-12 Months T xamples have included China’s Private Sector, the Pace of Restructuring in Korea and Malaysia and Pre-election Assessments in Malaysia and Indonesia. In all five cases the conclusions were that the market consensus was wrong and participants could benefit in the market. further benefit is to get the measure of key figures who make policy. These have included long discussions with key decision makers and advisers in Beijing and Seoul, as well as with Malaysian Finance Minister Tun Daim Zainuddin and Philippine President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. A E
China’s Private Sector Conference : March 2001 OUTLOOK FOR CHINA’S PRIVATE SECTOR SHANGHAI GRACE SEMICONDUCTOR CHINA NETCOM RESTRUCTURING SOEs GUANG YU GLASS CHINA RARE EARTH Hugh Peyman Ray Tsaih Chairman Fan Xingcha Mark Channels Wang Weixiang Qian Yuanying Deputy Chairman CHINA CONSUMER OUTLOOK FOOK HUAT TONG KEE BRILLIANCE CHINA AUTOMOTIVE MULTI-NATIONAL’S EXPERIENCE POLITICAL AND SOCIAL STABILITY Jackie Wong NFO China Ee Tai Tong Chairman Wu Xiaoan Vice-Chairman Lance Browne Standard Chartered, CEO Jasper Becker South China Morning Post China Bureau Chief SHANGHAI (Mar 12-13, 2001 )
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK NOKIA CAPITAL MARKETS DEVELOPMENT ECONOMIC PRIORITIES Li Shantong Director Development Research Centre Liu Chijin Vice-President Elizabeth Liu CITIC Securities Teng Yun Changsheng Fund Management Wang Yuan Executive Director State Development Bank Former Head of International People’s Bank of China BEIJING (Mar 14, 2001 ) 176% 2yrs 84% 2.5yrs 1999 OUR CHINA TRACK RECORD 600 800 1000 400 1995 CHINA WILL NOT REFLATE 1996 DEFLATION THE THREAT 1996/7 SELL HONG KONG 1997 AVOID RED CHIPS 1998 BUY CHINA FOR ITS RECOVERY BUY
COMPANIES Grace Semiconductor This groundbreaking US$1.6 billion Taiwan/China joint venture indicates that China is building the technological base on which many other industries will develop and that will attract other Taiwanese investment. Its high profile, linked with the sons of Formosa Plastics' Chairman Wang Yung-Ching and China-s President Jiang Zemin, has helped secure a further US$2.5 billion funding from China if the project to make eight and 12-inch wafers is successful. A listing is expected, possibly as early as this year. China NetCom China's fourth telephone carrier after China Telecom, China Unicom and China Mobile was founded by US-educated entrepreneur Edward Tian and staffed by numerous "returnees". The roll out of its network has been impressive. Already it has 15% of the voice over IP market. Founding investors include the Chinese Academy of Science, the Ministry of Railways and the Shanghai Government. Investors through a recent US$300 million private placement are believed to include Michael Dell and News Corp. Investment plans comprise US$600-700 million in 2001 and slightly more in 2002. Listings on Nasdaq and Hong Kong are planned. Guang Yu Glass A pure private sector company started in 1985. Its costs are 35% below those of SOEs which produce 90% of China's glass, implying substantial scope for expansion through consolidation of China's 44 glass makers over the next five years. Started to export to South Africa and South Korea. China's annual per capita glass consumption is 6-7kg compared with 17kg in the US and 8kg in Turkey.
China Rare Earth China has over 80% of the world's rare earth deposits. China Rare Earth has 6% of the world market and aims to raise its share to 25% through expanding its own capacity, by acquiring small financially-distressed Chinese companies and through the shrinkage of higher-cost OECD output. Exports comprise 70% of rare earth sales. Its customers include Philips, Sharp, Hitachi, Toshiba, GE, GM and Samsung. Listed in Hong Kong. Fook Huat Tong Kee China is the world's leading producer of apples. Combining China's low labour cost, land productivity and climate with Singapore management and Chilean growing expertise, FHTK is poised to become Asia's largest fruit company and a top 5 company globally. Already it has started to build brand. Listed in Singapore. Brilliance China Automotive The definitive turnaround story of an SOE. Market share in light vehicles, with its Italian design, has risen from 4% to 30% after new financial management reorganised the manufacturing. Although the government retains control, management has options on 10% of stock and effective management control. It ranks No. 1 for productivity in the auto sector, only VW exceeds it in profit. It will probably be BMW's joint-venture partner by the end of 2001. Listed on the New York Stock Exchange since 1992 and Hong Kong since 1999. Nokia The great foreign multi-national success story in China. Nokia has taken an innovative approach to building its China operations. There are now 86 million mobile users in China, 15% of world sales. Ultimate market size may exceed 250 million, the largest market in the world. Nokia dominates it, giving it scale and leverage globally. Zhu Rongji is very keen to get the successful China operations of MNCs to list in China.
OBSERVERS Tony Jiang a new generation entrepreneur spent half his life in Shanghai and half in the US before returning in the mid-1990s. Finding his way round the red tape he opened Shanghai's leading club-cum- restaurant. Since then he has been involved in several ventures. Graham Earnshaw has created a career in Shanghai media and entertainment. Once Reuters Shanghai bureau chief he has gone on to manage China's Boy George while establishing China's first independent paper and several e-ventures. Mark Chennels has restructured three SOEs in the last five years. One he bankrupted, the other two have built a significant presence in packaging. Formerly with CSFB he has direct experience with the changing realities of Chinese productivity, corruption, the banking system, local government and the pace of change. Jia Wei is general manager of Fudan Science Park. Based around Fudan University, Shanghai's pre- eminent pre-1949 university, the science park is one of several that taps into Shanghai's deep theoretical science base: China produces 145,000 engineers a year, Taiwan just 4,000. Previously he worked at Liujiazui, the main property developer in Pudong. Sam Crispin is research manager of FPD Savills. With six years property experience in Shanghai he has built the most complete property database. He is widely regarded as the most knowledgeable person on the sector. Shao Yibo, twice national maths champion and Harvard Business School alumnus, has set up Eachnet, an online auction house. He is typical of the new generation of returnees who are taking China rapidly into the new economy.
Chen Rong is typical of the new generation who with little education due to the Cultural Revolution has built a substantial business. He turned his stock market gains into China's leading bowling equipment maker just as China went crazy over bowling. He has given Brunswick and other global competitors stiff competition in China. Jackie Wong heads NPO a consumer consulting firm with overseas links. Specialising in autos, telecoms and consumer products, clients include Nokia, Ericsson, Motorola, GM, Nissan, VW, Toyota and Unilever. Lance Browne has nearly 20 years business experience in China. Head of Standard Chartered and the British Chamber of Commerce he has unique insight into doing business in China from knowing business and political leaders over many years. Jasper Becker is the South China Morning Post bureau chief in Beijing. Last year he published the widely acclaimed The Chinese. Previously he wrote the definitive book on the Great Leap Forward (Backwards) the seminal influence against which current economic policies are reacting. Li Shantong heads macro economic forecasting at the Development Research Centre, a think tank / research institute, that advises Zhu Rongji's cabinet on macro economic policy. Wang Yuan is one of China's leading economic policy advisers. Formerly head of the International Department at the People's Bank of China, the Central Bank, she is now special adviser to Chen Yuan at the State Development Bank that was founded to spearhead efficient lending to the infrastructure sector. Bill Kazer our translator and organizer has had a career that spans nearly three decades of expertise in China. Among other positions he started Reuters Chinese Language Business service first in Taiwan and then in China. He has been financial correspondent in Taiwan for the Far Eastern Economic Review and Reuters bureau chief in Shanghai.
US And Asia Conference : September 2001 WASHINGTON (Sep 12, 2001 ) Welcome and Introduction Robert S. Strauss, Former U.S. Trade Representative (1977-79); US Ambassador to Moscow (1994-1996); Co-Founder of Akin, Gump The Investment View From Asia Hugh Peyman Questions From Asia : From Japan to Pakistan Philip Bowring, consultant to Research-Works, Hong Kong, advisor on Asia to the World Economic Forum and Oxford Analytica, columnist International Herald Tribune, former editor Far Eastern Economic Review View from Washington : Bush Administration Attitudes and Approaches to Asia Thomas Pepper, President, Wave Hill Associates, Inc. New York Economic Policy: The Strong Dollar-- Plaza Accord II? Priorities in Asia. Edwin M. Truman, Former Assistant Secretary of Treasury for International Affairs (1998-2001); Director of the Division of International Finance of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve (1977-1998) ( Postponed Due To New York/Washington Attacks )
The Relative Importance of Asia for the Bush Administration: Different Perspectives Europe and Russia : Mark C. Medish, Former Senior Director of the National Security Council (2000-2001); Former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (1997-2000) Mideast : Frank Anderson, Senior Vice President, Foreign Reports, Inc.; Former CIA Chief for Near East and South Asia Asia : Liu Yadong, Managing Director of Medley Global Advisors Emerging Markets Group; Former Chinese Foreign Ministry Official (1985-1990) Pasuk Phongpaichit, Professor of Economics, The Political Economy Centre, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, author of Thailand's Crisis and Guns Girls Gambling Ganja: Thailand's Illegal Economy and Public Policy What Wall Street Wonders about the Administration and Asia Robert D. Hormats, Advisor to Hampshire Partners and Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International WASHINGTON (Sep 13, 2001 ) US Foreign and Security Policy: Rethinking Security Fundamentals Engagement or Neo-Isolationism? New Views on Asian Bases? China after Hainan? Kenneth L. Adelman, Adjunct Professor of National Security, Georgetown University School of Foreign Service; Former Director, U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency (1983-1987); Assistant to Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld (1975-1977)
Accommodating the 800lb Gorilla: China Inside the WTO? Howard Balloch, Former Canadian Ambassador to Beijing (1996-2001) Manufacturing Recession Brings Trade Wars? William L. Paxon, Former Chairman of the Republican House Leadership; Chairman of Bush/Cheney Transition Advisory Team S. Bruce Wilson – Democratic Trade Counsel, House Ways and Means Committee (1991-1998); Assistant U.S. Trade Representative (1987-1990) Daniel L. Spiegel – Head of Akin Gump’s International Trade Practice Cooperation or Competition? Thomas S. Foley, Former Speaker of the House of Representatives (1989-1994); Ambassador to Tokyo (1997-2001); Chairman of the Trilateral Commission The Economic Outlook for Asia in 2002 David Robinson, Senior Advisor, IMF
SPEAKERS Robert Strauss knows Washington as well as anyone. His intimate knowledge began in his days as advisor to President Lyndon Johnson and continues up to the present. Co-founder of international law firm Akin Gump, his long and varied career has included being Chairman of the Democratic Party, the US Trade Representative who negotiated the Tokyo Round as well as being Ambassador to Moscow when the Soviet Union was dissolved. Hugh Peyman has spent nearly 25 years in Asia. Founder of Singapore-based Research-Works, an independent research firm that does the long-term thinking on Asia for fund managers, he started Merrill Lynch's research in Southeast Asia before going on to head its research for all of Asia. He also started the Asian brokerage and research for Dresdner Kleinwort Benson. Thomas Pepper the Founder of Wave Hill Associates has over 20 years experience in Asia that included four years as the Director of the Hudson Institute's Asia-Pacific Office in Tokyo. He is the author of several publications including The Competition: Dealing With Japan which that year the Economist chose as the one book to read on Japan. Edwin Truman is the Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Economics in Washington. He was US Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for International Affairs (1998-2001) and Director of the Division of International Finance of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (1977- 1998). Mark Medish is a partner of Akin Gump having served as special assistant to President Clinton and senior director of the National Security Council where he helped form and implement foreign policy on Russia and the NIS. He was previously Assistant Secretary of the US Treasury for International Affairs, advising Treasury Secretaries Robert Rubin and Lawrence Summers. Frank Anderson was a 27-year veteran of the CIA, having been Chief of its Near East and South Asia Division. He was also Chief of the Afghan Task Force. He is now Senior Vice President for Foreign Reports, the Washington-based advisory firm that specializes on the Middle East.
Liu Yadong was a Chinese Foreign Ministry Official from 1985-1990 when he was a top interpreter for Deng Xiaoping, Zhao Ziyang, Jiang Zemin, Li Peng and Zhu Rongji. Subsequently he taught Chinese foreign policy at Brigham Young, assisted Pulitzer Prize winner Harrison Salisbury and worked with the BBC on three famous documentaries about the personal and political lives of Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. He is now managing director for emerging markets at Washington-based Medley Global Advisors. Pasuk Phongpaichit is Professor of Economics at Thailand's leading university Chulalongkorn. Currently she is visiting professor at Johns Hopkins. Specialising in political economy she has co- authored Thailand's Crisis and most recently Guns Girls Gambling Ganja: Thailand's Illegal Economy and Public Policy. Philip Bowring is a Hong Kong-based consultant to Research-Works and for long has been Asia's pre- eminent financial and political journalist with nearly 30 years experience in the region. Formerly editor of the Far Eastern Economic Review he is now a contributor to the International Herald Tribune as well as advisor on Asia to the World Economic Forum and Oxford Analytica. Robert Hormats is an Advisor to Hampshire Partners, a joint-venture between Multi-National Strategies, the New York-based emerging markets investment advisors, and Akin Gump. He is also Vice Chairman of Goldman Sachs International. In public service his positions included Assistant Secretary of State for Economic Affairs and Senior Economic Advisor to Dr. Kissinger, General Scowcroft and Dr. Brzezinski at the National Security Council. Kenneth Adelman was President Reagan's Director of the US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency during Reagan's Super Power summits with Gorbachev. Previously he was Deputy Representative to the UN and advisor to Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. Howard Balloch until recently was Canada's Ambassador to Beijing as well as to Pyongyang and Ulan Bator. He was involved closely with the negotiations leading to China's entry into the WTO. After five years as ambassador he is now a consultant for White River in Beijing.
William Paxon chaired the Bush/Cheney Transition Team, having been chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee when the Republican Party captured control of the House of Representatives in 1994. Currently he is a partner of Akin Gump. Bruce Wilson had a 25-year career in Federal Government including as Assistant US Trade Representative For nearly 17 years he was an international trade negotiator. He directed US preparations for NAFTA and the Uruguay Round. He was also the Democratic Trade Counsel at the House of Representative's Ways and Means Committee. Daniel Spiegel is head of Akin Gump's international law practice. Previously he has been US envoy to the World Intellectual Property Organisation, the World Health Organisation, the International Labor Organisation, UNCTAD and the International Telecommunications Union. He was also special assistant to Secretary of State Cyrus Vance. Thomas Foley has had a 30-year career in Congress rising to be Speaker of the US House of Representatives, having been majority whip and Chairman of the House Democratic Caucus. In 1997 he became Ambassador to Tokyo and is now a director of the Japan America Society. Currently he is a partner of Akin Gump and chairman of the Trilateral Commission, having previously chaired the President's Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. David Robinson is the Senior Advisor at the International Monetary Fund's research department in Washington. Currently he edits the World Economic Outlook the IMF's forecasting document. Previous experience in his 17-year career at the IMF have included periods spent working on Asia and Eastern Europe.
CHINA OUTLOOK 1998/1999, BEIJING (Feb 24-26 1998) Ian Johnson (Dow Jones) James Kynge (Financial Times) Bill Kazer (Reuters) Mark O’Neil (South China Morning Post) Li Shantong Development Research Center, State Council Prof. Zhang Shu-Guang Chinese Academy of Social Science Zhou Shi-Jan Chamber of Commerce of Metals, Minerals & Chemicals Cao Yuan-Zheng State Commission for Restructuring the Economy Dr. Zhang Zhun-Lin State Commission for Economy and Trade Dr. Wang Guo-Guang Chinese Academy of Social Science Dr He Xi Jing Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Cao Si-Yuan Merger & Bankruptcy Consultancy Jasper Becker South China Morning Post Wang Yuan People’s Bank of China e include some of the conferences that we conducted in our previous incarnations with Dresdner Kleinwort Benson and Vickers Ballas. W UPDATE AND ISSUES MACRO-ECONOMIC OVERVIEW POLICY OPTIONS AND CHOICES CHINA’S EXPORT PROSPECTS SOE RESTRUCTURING IMPLEMENTING SOE REFORM CHINA’S CAPITAL MARKETS CHINA’S BANKING SYSTEM LEGAL REFORM PROSPECTS POLITICAL OUTLOOK OUTLOOK AND CONCLUSIONS
Bill Kazer Reuters Marcus Brauchli Wall Street Journal Maggie Farley Los Angeles Times Elaine Chan Bloomberg Professor Jin Zhi SITIC Sam Crispin First Pacific Davies Wayne Jia Lujiazui Development Jian He Ping Shanghai Municipal Government Foo Choy Peng South China Morning Post Sun Deming Guotai Securities China Outlook 1999/2000 Ron Hoffman Canadian Embassy Ian Johnson Dow Jones James Kynge Financial Times Li Shantong Development Research Center State Council Lin Kun State Planning Commission Sa Qi Bank of China Research Institute Zhang Xueyin State Information Centre Yang Zhigang Chinese Academy of Social Science Wu Jian Bai Sun Hung Kai Properties Beijing Jasper Becker South China Morning Post and author of Hungry Ghosts Wang Yuan State Development Bank SHANGHAI BEIJING (Jun 7-8, 1999) (Jun 9-10, 1999) UPDATE AND ISSUES SOE REFORM PROPERTY PUDONG ECONOMIC POLICY CAPITAL MARKETS MARKET OUTLOOK WTO PROSPECTS POLITICS ECONOMIC POLICY FINANCIAL REFORM CONSUMER SECTOR FISCAL POLICY HOUSING REFORM SOCIAL STABILITY CONCLUSIONS DEFLATION
KOREA Government / International Agencies Dr. Kim Kihwan Ambassador for Economic Affairs John Dodsworth IMF, Representative Deepak Khanna IFC, Representative Corporates Lee Sang Hoon Daewoo, Head of Restructuring Committee Hye Yung Shik Hyundai, Member of Restructuring Committee Koh Yung Chul Choheung Bank, Head of Restructuring Committee Observers Dr. Oum Bong Sung Korean Development Institute Shim Jae Hoon Far Eastern Economic Review Oh Gun Societe Generale Lee Suk Jae Dataview, Restructuring ( Jun, 11 1999 ) MALAYSIA Government Tun Daim Zainuddin Minister of Special Functions Dr Zainal Aznam Yusof NEAC, Working Group Member Tan Sri Azmi Wan Hamzah NEAC, Working Group Member Dr Sulaiman Mahbob NEAC, Economist Marianus Vong Danamodal Observers Datuk Paul Low Malaysian Manufacturers Association, President Al’ Alim IR Asset Management, President Jayasankaran Far Eastern Economic Review Harun Halim Raisip Halim Raisip, CEO Dato Shahrir Samad former Deputy Minister of Finance ( Nov 26, 1998 )
Elections and After INDONESIA ( May 6, 1999 ) Government / International Agencies Dono Iskandar Bank Indonesia, Director Lloyd McKay World Bank, Principal Economist Mel Brown IBRA, Senior Adviser Corporates Kiagus Umar Tochfa Aneka Tambang, CFO Hasan Tebiono Astra Agro, Corporate Secretary Jonathan Zax Sampoerna, Director Krishnaswamy Alladi Unilever, M&A Director Observers Manggi Habir Credit Rating Agency of Indonesia, President Narayan Menon KPMG, Consultant Bob Barton Austindo Nusantara Jaya, Director John McBeth Far Eastern Economic Review MALAYSIA ( July, 1 1999 ) Government Dato Mustapha Mohamed Second Finance Minister Dr Victor Wee NEAC, Principal Economist Political Parties Dato Shahrir Samad UMNO Carl Chow MCA Dr Chandra Muzaffar Keadilan, Deputy President Observers Dr Jomo Sundarum University of Malaya, Professor of Economics Datuk Kadir Jasin New Straits Times, Group Editor Wong Sulong Star, Business Editor Datuk Paul Low Malaysian Manufacturers Association, President Simon Elegant, Jayasankaran Far Eastern Economic Review
THAILAND Government / International Agencies Dr Arporn Chewakrengkai Prime Minister’s Economic Adviser Dr Renuka Vongviriyatham, Dr Kirida Bhaopichitr World Bank Research Visit Observers Chris Baker author Thailand’s Boom and Bust and Thailand’s Crisis Nick Cumming-Bruce Asian Wall Street Journal Ian Woo Nation Research / Consulting Organisations Dr Nimit Nontapunthawat Bangkok Bank, Research Head Dr Charl Kengchon Thai Farmers, Vice President Dr Peter Brimble Booker Group, President Chris Bruton Economist Intelligence Unit, Director Brokers Choedchu Sophanpanich BFIT, CEO Supavud Saicheua Merrill Lynch, EVP Robert McMillen Seamico, CEO ( Jun 21-24, 2000 ) Bankers Niall Booker HSBC, CEO Nikhil Srinivasan BoA Asset Management, President Jim Stent Bank of Asia, EVP