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Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors 20140507 Victorious Warriors Peter van Emde Boas, ILLC-FNWI-UvA and Bronstee.com Software & Services B.V. 20140507.

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Presentation on theme: "Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors 20140507 Victorious Warriors Peter van Emde Boas, ILLC-FNWI-UvA and Bronstee.com Software & Services B.V. 20140507."— Presentation transcript:

1 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Victorious Warriors Peter van Emde Boas, ILLC-FNWI-UvA and Bronstee.com Software & Services B.V Peking University Logic in Sun Tzu and the Games played in the Romance of the Three Kingdoms

2 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Who am I ? Born: ( 4 years before foundation PRC) MS & PhD: University of Amsterdam supervisors: van Wijngaarden, Baayen, Hartmanis (Turing Award winner) Fields: Mathematics, Computer Science, Logic 50 years of professional activity -- van Emde Boas Priority Queue Long term involvement with mayor Conference series (ICALP, TAMC, SOFSEM, CiE,....) 23 Ph D students, Examinator of 1000 students math, CS, Logic, AI,...

3 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Topics Introduction: the project “History of Logic in China” Theory of strategy: then and now Ancient Chinese Strategy theory as described by Sun Tzu –There is logic in these ancient texts Example stories related to games from the Romance of the Three Kingdoms –Lü Bu and Diao Chan –Jian Gan steals a letter –Cao Cao divides Han Suo and Ma Chao –Zhuge Liang borrows arrows –The ambush at Huarong

4 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors A Wild Idea Jun Analyze Classical Chinese Strategy Theory from the Perspective of contemporary Game Theory ??! Fenrong Liu Jeremy Seligman

5 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The Project Preparation for the handbook of the history of logic in China (the meeting at Nankai University in April 2014) A proposed chapter in this handbook, including topics like: –Ancient Chinese theory of Military Strategy: Sun Tzu and Sun Bin –Connections to Logic, and Game Theory –Example stories from history and/or litterature such as the three kingdoms saga –Contemporary perspective This presentation is about issues inspired by this project and has a wider perspective –The problems of reconstructing games from stories

6 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Join me on a trip to Ancient China Great Wall Wonder Movie in Civilization II Great Wall Wonder Movie in Civilization IV

7 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors My first encounter with Sun Tzu Sun Tzu War Academy Wonder Movie in Civilization II

8 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors My first encounter with the three Kingdoms saga During my trip to Guanzhou in 2009 I saw the two part version of this movie during the flights In Europe the reduced single part edition is regularly broadcasted on TV

9 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Another source of inspiration Yanjing Wang, ph.d. thesis ILLC, , Epistemic Modelling & Protocol Dynamics, ch 1

10 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors It was a great event…… © Peter van Emde Boas ; The PhD defense of Yanjing Wang

11 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors So I started reading….

12 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Timeline of historic events 771 – 476 BCSpring and Autumn Period 551 – 479 BCConfucius Around 500 BCSun Wu 476 – 221 BCWarring States Period Around 360 BCSun Bin 221 – 207 BCQin Dynasty 206 BC – 220 ADHan Dynasty 168 – 280 Romance Three Kingdoms period 265 – 420 Jin Dynasty … – 1386Yuan Dynasty Around 1370Presumed writing of the Three Kingdoms 1386 – 1644Ming Dynasty 1522Printed edition Three Kingdoms 1644 – 1911Qing Dynasty 1911 – todayRevolution, Civil War, Japanese Occupation, Peoples Republic

13 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Some Source Texts Sun TzuThe Art of Wararound 500 BC Sun BinThe Art of Wararound 360 BC Romance of the Three Kingdomsaround 1400 AD The 13 chapters in Sun Tzu, the Art of War 1Strategic Assessments8 Adaptations 2Doing Battle9 Maneuvring Armies 3Planning a Siege10 Terrain 4Formation11 Nine Grounds 5Force12 Fire Attack 6Emptiness and Fullness13 On the use of Spies 7Armed Struggle

14 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The Authors

15 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The Sources

16 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Replica of Sun Tzu text in National Museum Beijing

17 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Translations/Editions Consider my favourite Sun Tzu quote: Victorious Warriors win first and then go to War, while Defeated Warriors go to War first and then seek to win. Did Sun Tzu actually say/write this? if so, where? Phrases like this appear both at the end of the first chapter (Strategic Assessments) and in chapter four (Formation)

18 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Wu Rusong ch4 John Minford ch4 Cleary ch1 Cleary ch4 Cleary ch1 Cleary ch4 Sawyer ch4 Ames ch 4 Here it appears

19 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Logic, Games and Ancient Strategy

20 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Where is the Logic? From the ILLC mission statement: The scientific mission of the Institute for Logic, Language and Computation (ILLC) is to study formal properties of information, viz. the logical structure and algorithmic properties of processes of encoding, transmitting and comprehending information. Sun Tzu and Sun Bin express their advice in terms of rules –Using rules means using logic Information, knowledge and belief are core concepts in their strategic theory –These concepts are studied using logic

21 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Semi-structured text Definitions Rules Sun Tzu, ed. Wu Rusong, ch 11

22 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The definitions in this example text 1.San, Dispersive, Within one’s own state 2.Qing, Marginal, Enemy territory (short distance) 3.Zheng, Contested, Advantageous for first occupant 4.Jiao, Open, Accessible to both sides 5.Qu, Focal, Border area of several states 6.Zhong, Critical, Deep in enemy territory 7.Pi, Difficult, Mountains, forests and other natural hazards 8.Wei, Beleaguered, Narrow and tortuous entrances 9.Si, Deadly, Survival is very hard

23 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The rules in this example text 1.Do not fight in dispersive region 2.Do not linger in a marginal region 3.Do not strain to attack the enemy in contested region 4.Do no get cut off in an open region 5.Form alliances in focal region 6.Plunder the enemy’s resources in critical region 7.Press ahead in a difficult region 8.Devise contingency plans in a beleaguered region 9.Fight with all courage and energy in a deadly region

24 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Where is the Game Theory? Game theory is a mathematical theory aimed at the description of behavior of opponents (agents) in strategic interaction This is what the ancient Chinese strategy thinkers were doing also, except for the missing Mathematics… –Linear algebra, probability theory,… The Game theoretical ingredients can be found primarily in the historical stories

25 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors About these connections The texts of Sun Tzu and Sun Bin were almost unknown in the Western world before 1950 Interesting modern ideas can be found in these texts (and histories) which are 2500 years old. –Analyzing the situation –Information –Theory of mind reasoning (E.G. in the three kingdoms stories) These modern ideas play a role in Game Theory

26 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Analyzing the situation Military Tradition Splash screen in Civilization IV

27 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Analyzing the situation Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win warriors go to war first and then seek to win Sun Tzu, the Art of War This phrase invites to analyze the situation before engaging in battle. Is this a form of game analysis? Did the ancient Chinese actually use such an analysis? If so, can we find evidence for this in ancient texts?

28 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Information and Spies Wu Rusong ch13 Information is mentioned as a transferable entity This is around 500 BC An expendable agent is one who is deliberately given false information to mislead the enemy Information is mentioned as a transferable entity This is around 500 BC

29 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Theory of mind reasoning Ambush at Huarong –See the quotation by Yanjing Wang –Presented in more details later –Believed to be fictitious Empty City strategy –Strategy 32 in the 36 strategies –Famous example by Zhuge Liang in the three kingdoms saga (believed to be historical rather than fictitious)

30 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Some other Sun Tzu Quotes

31 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Be prepared Sun Tzu, ed. Wu Rusong, ch8 The art of war teaches us to rely not on the likelihood of the enemy’s not attacking, but rather on the fact that we have made our position unassailable. Great Wall wonder Splash screen quote from Sun-Tzu in Civilization V

32 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Know thy Enemy Sun Tzu, ed. Clarey, ch3

33 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Deception is everything Sun Tzu, the Art of War, ch 1; ed. Wu Rusong Divide et Impera (divide and conquer) If he is united as one, divide him

34 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Divide et Impera in Roman History

35 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Strategic Theory, then and now

36 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Theory of Military Strategy This text was written in 1832 Start of Strategic Theory ??

37 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Sun Tzu, the Art of War This text was written around 500 BC

38 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The changed nature of War Guandu 200 AD Solferino 1859; national armies Normandy 1944; mechanisation Syria today; insurgents

39 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Hiroshima 1945 War is no longer a constant-sum game; It is no longer clear which actions of policy makers are rational. Anatol Rapoport The ultimate game changer

40 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Classic perspective Alexanderschlacht, Alex Altdorfer Alte Pinakotek, Műnchen Mercenary armies Soldiers fight for who pays, feeds or owns them Observe Warriors code of honour Commanders participate in combat Defeat the enemy; don’t destroy him Prevent casualties, if possible If defeated, you may switch side The Chinese ancient strategy theoreticians must be understood from this classic perspective Is this correct ?

41 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Commanders in combat Beijing, Summer palace, long corridor; the nightly combat between Ma Chao and Zhang Fei

42 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Compare with von Clausewitz

43 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Compare with von Clausewitz The idea that you can overcome the enemy using strategy only, without serious fighting is a severe error Stratagems are to be used as a last resort only Chinese advocate deception in all circumstances; For a last resource advice look at Strategy 36 from the 36 strategies of ancient China If nothing else works, retreat

44 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Stories and games

45 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Analyzing texts We learn about ancient Chinese events from history texts and literature These sources provide us with Stories We read about the use of Stratagems in these stories (tricks of deceit during warfare) What does this tell about the actual strategic situation? About the Games involved?

46 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The Oberver from Mars problem How much can the Martian Observer learn about the Go Game by observing a (single) play performed by human players?

47 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Reconstructing Games from Stories From a given story, invent some plausible game so that the story becomes a play in the game. This makes it possible to appreciate the behavior of the agents in the story Were they rational, wise, sensitive, compassionate, …? And did they use any kind of game analysis at all?

48 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors A possible approach: Narratology A form of literature study, aimed at constructing formal representations of the content of stories Primary target: a sequence of events But that’s not all –What did agents knew? –What did agents believe? –What did agents desire? –What did agents expect? Are two stories similar or equivalent? Are the stories instances of similar or equivalent games? It is a non-trivial task! So far we did not attempt to use this approach for our Chinese texts

49 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Example of Narratology study Higher order theory-of-mind representation of preferences and/or expectations of agents participating in the stories. Example stories from popular TV crime series

50 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Example stories Lu Bu and Dian Chao –Reconstruction of game from story Jian Gan steals a letter –Information; the expendable spy Cao Cao divides Ma Chao and Han Suo –Information; non-information works also Zhuge Liang borrow arrows –Multiple games played simultaneously The ambush at Huarong –Theory-of-mind reasoning

51 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Lü Bu and Diao Chan Used as an example for strategy 31 (Strategy of the beautiful women) in my edition of the thirty-six strategies of Ancient China

52 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Dong Zhuo, after the gang of ten Eunuchs who have corrupted the court has been eliminated, is usurping power in the late Han empire. He obtains the service of Lü Bu, a fierce and invincible warrior, to protect him. Dong Zhuo disposes the ruling emperor Ling and has him replaced by his weaker and younger brother Xian. The former emperor Ling is killed. Dong Zhuo behaves more and more as a Tyrant. Minister of the interior Wang Yun sees more and more heads rolling around him, and fears his head will be next on the block. Together with Diao Chan – a beautiful girl in his household, Wang Yun designs a plot to destroy the good relation between Dong Zhuo and Lü Bu. Set-up of the story

53 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Wang Yun and Dioa Chan forge a plot to separate Lü Bu and Dong Zhuo

54 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The story of Lü Bu and Diao Chan Wang Yung invites Lü Bu for dinner; offers him Diao Chan as bride Wang Yung invites Dong Zhuo for dinner; offers him Diao Chan as concubine Observing Diao Chan in the palace of Dong Zhuo, Lü Bu asks Wang Yung for explanation; he tells that Dong Zhuo obtained Diao Chan by political pressure Lü Bu meets Diao Chan in the palace garden; she confirms Wang Yung story Dong Zhuo observes this meeting; Diao Chan tells him that Lü Bu attempted to seduce her The plot succeeds; Dong Zhuo and Lu Bü become enemies. Later Lü Bu will kill Dong Zhuo and marry Diao Chan

55 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors What is the Game? The story introduces four agents, and a sequence of events. Which events offer a choice point where a strategic move is made? What would be the alternative moves at such a position? The story involves lies; hence ascribing belief states to agents is essential for really understanding what happens. (but we have not yet done it) What about preferences and/or utilities?

56 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Events in a possible model Offer as bride Offer as concubine Lies by Wang Chun and Diao Chan Lie by Diao Chan Observation by Lü Bu Observation by Dong Zhuo Plot Succeeds Which choices are open for other agents?

57 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Offer as bride Offer as concubine Lie by Diao Chan Observation by Lü Bu Observation by Dong Zhuo Plot Succeeds Accept offer? Believe lies? Believe lie? Disregard? Possible Choice Points added Lies by Wang Chun and Diao Chan Y N N N Y Y N Y N Y N Y

58 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Offer as bride Offer as concubine Lie by Diao Chan Observation by Lü Bu Observation by Dong Zhuo Plot Succeeds Accept offer? Believe lies? Believe lie? Disregard? Utilities ? Lies by Wang Chun and Diao Chan [ /2 ] [ ? - - ? ] [ ? ? ? 0 ] Y N N N Y Y N Y N Y N Y [ ? + + ? ] [ ] [ ? - - ? ]

59 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Jian Gan steals a letter Example of the use of information; the expendable spy strategy

60 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Jian Gan steals a letter Cao Cao sends an secret envoy, Jiang Gan, to Zhou Yu (the enemy commander), in order to convince the latter to surrender. Zhou Yu, recognizes that it is a spy, but receives and feasts him like an old friend. During the night he arranges that Jian Gan finds a secret letter, written by the two admirals of Cao Cao, indicating that they intend to defect to Zhou Yu. Jiang Gan steals the letter. Upon return Jiang Gan informs Cao Cao about his findings; the two admirals are beheaded. However, the letter was a planted forgery; the admirals were innocent, and Cao Cao realises that he has been tricked only after the execution. Romance of the three Kingdoms, chapter 45

61 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors This example is an instance of the expendable agent strategy Sun Tzu, the Art of War, Wu Rusong ch13 An expendable agent is one who is deliberately given false information to mislead the enemy

62 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Cao Cao divides Han Suo and Ma Chao After his defeat at Red Cliffs (208), the attempts of Cao Cao to extend the territory he controls to the south come to halt. A few years later he attempts to get the Northwest regions under his control (211). His first opponent there is Han Sui, who is served by his nephew Ma Chao. Earlier Cao Cao has killed the father of Ma Chao and two of his brothers. Initially Cao Cao had tried to convince Han Sui to surrender and to deliver Ma Chao to him, but Han Sui refused. Han Sui goes to war against Cao Cao, but at Tong Pass, after some initial victories by Ma Chao, the two armies get stuck in a stalemate. Winter is arriving and the two parties start negotiating a truce. Seeing no way to defeat Ma Chao, Cao Cao designs a plot to create division between Ma Chao and Han Sui. Romance of the three Kingdoms, chapt 59 Example of use of non-information

63 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Cao Cao’s plot In between battles Cao Cao has a discussion with Han Sui; they discuss in public old events rather than the actual status. Cao Cao sends a letter to Han Sui filled with erasures; asked for an explanation by Ma Chao, Han Sui can’t explain why Cao Cao has produced such a sloppy contentless document. Cao Cao and Han Sui, have another discussion at the battle field, where Cao Cao expresses thanks for the earlier words of Han Sui. These developments make Ma Chao more and more suspicious, and Han Sui feels it. Subsequently he figures out that defecting to Cao Cao is after all the wisest policy at this stage. However his intentions to defect to Cao Cao and organize an murder attempt on Ma Chao become known to Ma Chao. Ma Chao attempts a preemptive strike on Han Sui, who is saved by Cao Cao, and Ma Chao narrowly escapes. Cao Cao is now victorious at Tong Pass. Romance of the three Kingdoms, chapt 59

64 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Romance of the three Kingdoms, chapt 59

65 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Use of non-information Cao Cao divides Han Suo and Ma Chao by creating the impression that he exchanges secret information with Han Suo But in reality nothing is exchanged Still Ma Chao is convinced that a plot against him is designed and attacks Han Suo as a preemptive strike

66 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Hear the commentary

67 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The commentaries The first comment expresses how ingeniously Cao Cao succeeds in making Ma Chao suspicious The second comment states that the key difference is that in this example the exchange of information is public, contrary to the Jian Gan example, where the communication is secret I see yet another important difference: information vs. non information

68 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Borrowing Arrows Two games being played simultaneously

69 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Zhuge Liang (Kongming) borrows arrows Before the battle at Red Cliffs (208 AD) Zhou Yu assigns to Kongming (Zhuge Liang) the “mission impossible” task of procuring arrows. Kongming assembles a small fleet of 20 ships covered by straw and feigns an attack at Cao Cao on the opposite side of the river at dawn in the fog. Cao Cao’s troops are deceived and fire more than arrows which are well preserved in the straw, and collected. Kongming plays and wins two games at the same time: -- Strategem against Cao Cao -- Saves himself from Zhou Yu’s plot Romance of the three Kingdoms, Chapter 46

70 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Archery Splash screen in Civilization IV

71 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The ambush at Huarong

72 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The ambush at Huarong Cao Cao is retreating from the defeat at Red Cliffs He must take the mountain road or the road through the valley His scouts inform him that there are fires lit along the mountain road Cao Cao, believing that the fires are intended to deceive him into taking the valley road, decides to take the mountain path But the ambush actually is located along the mountain road, since Zhuge Liang predicted how Cao Cao would reason

73 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The formal representation E W EW 1/-1 -1/1 Cao Cao does not want to be ambushed He can take the valley or the mountain road Lord Guo can stage the ambush in the valley of the montain road If both warriors select the same location Lord Guo wins; otherwise Cao Cao escapes This game is known as the game of matching pennies in Game Theory

74 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Ambush at Huarong As a game it is just Matching Pennies Actually Zhuge Liang may loose the game, by moving first (exposing his position) Cao Cao uses second order theory-of-mind reasoning –Reasoning about what Zhuge Liang could reason Zhuge Liang uses third order theory-of-mind reasoning –Reasoning about what Cao Cao could reason about what Zhuge Liang could reason Therefore Zhuge Liang wins

75 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 50 Cao Cao’s reasonings Cao Cao refers to Sun Tzu

76 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 49 Zhuge Liang’s reasoning Zhuge Liang Predicts that Cao Cao will refer to Sun Tzu

77 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors What are they talking about Sun Tzu, the Art of War, ch 1; ed. Wu Rusong This story includes a direct reference to the teachings of Sun Tzu Appear to be far away when actually nearby, and vice versa

78 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Cao Cao escapes Cao Cao actually is ambushed three consecutive times during his retreat after the battle at Red Cliffs. At Huarong he is granted free passage by the local commander Lord Guan Is the cliffhanger a Chinese Invention ?? Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 50

79 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Hear the commentator

80 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Again Zhuge Liang is playing two games at the same time Before assigning the final ambush to Lord Guan, Zhuge Liang has predicted that Lord Guan will let Cao Cao escape This is essential for the future –His lord Liu Bei is not yet ready to cope with his “ally” Sun Quan and his general Zhou Yu –Therefore Cao Cao should not yet be eliminated

81 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Zhuge Liang predicts the outcome Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 49 Guan Yu puts his head at stake

82 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Why I like this story? Use of third order theory-of-mind reasoning –Do you know of other examples ? Explicit reference to the teachings of the Ancient Chinese theoreticians of strategy

83 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Concluding remarks

84 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Reconstructing games from stories? Martian observer’s problem –We only have one game play available Several games played in parallel –Fusing several games into a big game creates problems of preference aggregation Do we get games at all? –The assumption of common knowledge of the game may be violated –The agents may have (false) beliefs on the preferences of others

85 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Loose Ends Many more texts remain to be studied (seven classics) Are there more stories involving higher theory-of-mind reasoning? What happened inbetween 500 BC and 1832? Did the Chinese learn to prepare for the tricks of their opponents? What was done outside China? –Roman authors?

86 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 1 Romance of the three Kingdoms, ch 120

87 Peter van Emde Boas: Victorious Warriors The end


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