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Assessment of contributions to climate change: Results from CICERO UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002 Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt.

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Presentation on theme: "Assessment of contributions to climate change: Results from CICERO UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, 25-27 September 2002 Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt."— Presentation transcript:

1 Assessment of contributions to climate change: Results from CICERO UNFCCC Expert meeting, Bracknell, September 2002 Bård Romstad, Jan Fuglestvedt and Terje Berntsen CICERO, Norway

2 Model description Simple Climate Model (SCM) (Fuglestvedt and Berntsen, 1999) Incorporates an energy-balance climate/up-welling diffusion ocean model developed by Schlesinger et al. (1992) A CO 2 scheme from Joos et al. (1996) Lifetimes and concentration-forcing relations from IPCC TAR Includes 32 source gases Global radiative forcing is calculated for 35 components Global-mean ΔT and ΔSL from ocean thermal expansion (and melting of glaciers) (Schlesinger et al., 1992)

3 Model description (cont.) The model source code can be obtained by contacting or

4 Model setup for attribution calculation SCM Emission database (CDIAC/EDGAR/ SRES) World OECD REF ASIA ALM World OECD REF ASIA ALM World OECD REF ASIA ALM Results (dT,dSL) Attribution calculation

5 Model input (emission perturbations) Emission database (CDIAC/EDGAR/ SRES) World OECD REF ASIA ALM

6 Model output (dT) Attribution calculation World OECD REF ASIA ALM Results (dT,dSL) World OECD REF ASIA ALM SCM

7 Model output (all regions) Results (dT,dSL)

8 Attribution calculation

9 Attribution calculation (α r ) DEFAULT: CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O perturbations from

10 Attribution from CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O,

11 Model setup for sensitivity study Time frame Attribution calculation period Emission sources+sinks CO2 All GHGs All forcing agents CO2,CH4 N2O Kyoto basket Historical Emissions 1890 Scenario Emissions Gases

12 Time frame sensitivity Emission attribution periods – (default) – – –

13 Time frame sensitivity (em start and end) DEFAULT: CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O attribution from

14 Time frame sensitivity (cont.) Emission attribution periods – (default) –

15 Timeframe sensitivity (em start only) DEFAULT: CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O attribution from

16 Scope sensitivity Sensitivity due to inclusion/exclusion of gases –CO2 only –CO2, CH4 and N2O (default) –Kyoto basket –(all cases with emission attribution period )

17 Gases included DEFAULT: CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O attribution from

18 Attribution from CO 2 only,

19 Attribution from CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O,

20 Attribution from all Kyoto-gases,

21 Source sensitivity Sensitivity due to exclusion of LUCF –Attribution period

22 Sources DEFAULT: CO 2, CH 4 and N 2 O attribution from


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