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Reputation Resources Results Canada | USA | UK | UAE | India | China www.rwdiair.com Slide transitions: Fade through Black is our standard. Never use dissolve.

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Presentation on theme: "Reputation Resources Results Canada | USA | UK | UAE | India | China www.rwdiair.com Slide transitions: Fade through Black is our standard. Never use dissolve."— Presentation transcript:

1 Reputation Resources Results Canada | USA | UK | UAE | India | China www.rwdiair.com Slide transitions: Fade through Black is our standard. Never use dissolve to stop the spread of this problematic transition. To copy slides from one file to this file, copy slides from the other file in the slide sorter view, paste into this file in slide sorter view, select all slides in slide view and Home>reset all slides to update to the new template Regarding dates, have a look at Insert>date If something is to appear on every slide, view slide master and modify the top most template in left pane To turn off the black last slide, click the office button (top left), PowerPoint Options (bottom), Advanced, Slide Show, End with black slide Defining ‘Significance’ of Cumulative Greenhouse Gas Emissions CPANS 2012 Spring Conference April 23, 2012 Christian Reuten RWDI AIR Inc. 1

2 Reputation Resources Results Regulatory Guidance Should GHG emissions be subject to cumulative effects assessments? “Cumulative effects are defined as the changes to the environment caused by an activity in combination with other past, present, and reasonably foreseeable human activities.” (EUB, AENV, and NRCB, 2010) 2

3 Reputation Resources Results Regulatory Guidance (cont.) Canadian Environmental Assessment Act as interpreted in Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office (1994): “Environment”: –land, water, air (entire atmosphere); –all matter, living organisms; and –interacting natural systems. “Environmental effects”: –changes in environment; effects on health, socioeconomics, physical and cultural heritage, land and resource use; and –changes to the project caused by environment. 3

4 Reputation Resources Results Applying the Regulations Following the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act, same assessment of residual GHG cumulative environmental impacts of any facility: Direction: increase Extent: global Magnitude: insignificant (not measurable) Duration: long-term Frequency: continuous Permanence: irreversible Certainty: high Probability: likely 4

5 Reputation Resources Results The Heart of the Issue Problem is linkage between geographic extent and magnitude: decreasing relative magnitude with increasing extent Percentage of current global, Canadian, and Provincial emissions: always a small number. 5

6 Reputation Resources Results Example 6 Coal PlantAB Total (2008) Canada Total (2008) Global Total (2005) 4 Mt244 Mt734 Mt40,253 Mt Contribution:1.64%0.54%0.01% Typical subcritical coal-fired power plant emits annually about 4 Mt CO 2 E: How can we do better in assessing significance?

7 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 7 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

8 Reputation Resources Results The Key Comparison 8 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

9 Reputation Resources Results Road Map 9 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

10 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Maximum Climate Change Global warming since pre-industrial times has been 0.7ºC. Total warming of 2ºC since pre-industrial times must not be exceeded to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’. Number and terminology stuck since the 1990’s. Alternatives: –If response of climate to GHG concentrations is gradual: adaptability vs. acceptability. –Develop future technologies to adapt to higher than currently acceptable global warming 10

11 Reputation Resources Results Road Map 11 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

12 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Total Cumulative Emissions 12 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Carbon_cycle-cute_diagram.svg

13 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Total Cumulative Emissions (cont.) Until 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working Group 1 Fourth Assessment Report on Climate Change (AR4): Impose atmospheric GHG concentrations as functions of time and emission scenario on Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models. 13

14 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Total Cumulative Emissions (cont.) Earth Systems Models: track carbon (C) in the Earth’s system: Prescribe CO 2 emissions; model calculates associated atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and global environmental changes. →Relationship between global cumulative GHG emissions and climate change, in particular global temperature increases. Only needed for CO 2. 14

15 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Total Cumulative Emissions (cont.) NRC (2010): Climate change directly related to cumulative emissions. Estimated range of changes per 1,000 Gt of CO 2 E: 15 Climate Change or ImpactLowHigh Global temperature+0.27°C+0.68°C Total precipitation+-1.4%+-6.8% Heavy rainfall+0.8%+6.8% Yield in a number of crops-1.4%-10.1% Changes in stream flow+-1.4%+-6.8% Extent of annual average Arctic sea ice-4.1%-10.1% Extent of September Arctic sea ice-6.8%-16.9%

16 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable Total Cumulative Emissions (cont.) Global warming since pre-industrial times has been 0.7ºC. Total warming of 2ºC since pre-industrial times must not be exceeded to avoid ‘dangerous climate change’. Remaining acceptable warming: 1.3°C. Associated acceptable total cumulative emissions: 2,749 Gt CO 2 E. 16

17 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 17 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

18 Reputation Resources Results Time Frame and Evolution Example: All cumulative emissions will be emitted by 2050 in equal amounts every year. More realistically: ramp down emissions. No more net emissions after 2050. Need to develop future technologies for: –carbon free world economy; or –adaptation to greater than currently acceptable climate change. 18

19 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 19 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

20 Reputation Resources Results National Allocation Example: ‘Time-locked equal-allocation approach’: For all nations, regardless of development status and past emission ‘debt’, same GHG emissions per capita based on population counts in 2010. International agreement, controls, and enforcement? Better science is unlikely to make ongoing international negotiations easier. 20

21 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 21 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

22 Reputation Resources Results National 2010+T Population Per-capita allocation of GHG emissions based on 2010 population counts and population-change adjustments for 2010+T. Nations must balance socioeconomic benefits of population growth with reduction of per-capita GHG emission allowance. Adds highly controversial variable to demographic challenges and their socioeconomic and sociopolitical impacts. Difficult to control in democracies. 22

23 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 23 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

24 Reputation Resources Results Service-Sector Allocation Nations could trade service areas against each other. 24 Leakages and double counting. Full life-cycle consideration. International agreements. Unexpected trade imbalances and disturbances.

25 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 25 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

26 Reputation Resources Results Acceptable National Annual 2010+T Per-Capita and Service Sector Emissions Coal-Fired Power Plant Revisited: Acceptable total cumulative emissions: 2,749 Gt CO 2 E (2010-2050). National allocation of 2010 per capita emissions: 9.82 t CO 2 E/year/person. Compare Canada 2010: 20.3 t CO 2 E/year/person. Service sector allocation: 14%. Acceptable national annual 2010+T per- capita and service sector emissions: 1.37 t CO 2 E/year/person/resid.electr.needs 26

27 Reputation Resources Results Looking at the Whole Picture 27 Acceptable national annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Acceptable total cumulative emissions Acceptable maximum climate change Time frame and evolution National allocation National 2010+T population Service-sector allocation Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity Facility annual 2010+T emissions Facility annual 2010+T production Derived International policy National policy Legend

28 Reputation Resources Results Facility Annual 2010+T Per-Capita and Service Sector Emissions Coal-Fired Power Plant Revisited: Facility annual 2010+T emissions: 4 Mt CO 2 E/year Facility annual 2010+T production: 4,000 GWh/year Facility annual 2010+T emission intensity: 1 t CO 2 E/MWh Annual 2010+T per-capita need of product: 6.95 MWh/year/person (residential energy usage in AB in 2010) Facility annual 2010+T per-capita and service sector emissions: 6.95 t CO 2 E/year/person/resid.electr.need Compare with acceptable national annual 2010+T per- capita service sector emissions: 1.37 t CO 2 E/year/person/resid.electr.need 28

29 Reputation Resources Results Coal-Fired Power Plant Revisited (cont.) To provide one person with annual electricity needs, a coal-fired power plant emits roughly five times of the person’s total annual CO 2 E allowance for residential electricity on the basic of equal global allocation, no further CO 2 E emissions after 2050, and a maximum global warming of 2°C since pre-industrial times. The approach can also be applied to alternative policy decisions, for example a 17% reduction of GHG emissions from 2006 levels by 2020. 29

30 Reputation Resources Results Conclusions An appropriate measure of significant GHG emissions by a facility: Annual per- capita and service sector emissions. Currently, international policy is disconnected from science. Current policy challenges will not change substantially with the suggested approach. 30

31 Reputation Resources Results References EUB, AENV, and NRCB, 2010: Cumulative Effects Assessment in Environmental Impact Assessment Reports Required under the Alberta Environmental Protection and Enhancement Act. Federal Environmental Assessment Review Office, 1994: A Reference Guide for the Canadian Environmental Assessment Act: Determining Whether A Project is Likely to Cause Significant Adverse Environmental Effects. National Research Council, 2010: Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millenia. The National Academies Press (prepublication copy). http://www.energy.alberta.ca/Electricity/682.asp http://www.ec.gc.ca/ges-ghg/ 31


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