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Observing Patterns in Bus Arrivals, Departures and Boardings Over Time An ASPC statistical experiment project by Manly Selective Campus Year 9 students George Morgan, Ryan Foo and Jonathan Barrett

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Aim & Hypothesis Aim To observe measurable patterns in school bus arrivals, departures and boarding times over the period of two weeks. To observe measurable patterns in school bus arrivals, departures and boarding times over the period of two weeks.Hypothesis Buses take longer to load on Fridays Buses take longer to load on Fridays Buses arrive later towards the start of the week, i.e. later on Mondays and Tuesdays, and earlier towards the end of the week, i.e. earlier on Thursdays and Fridays. Buses arrive later towards the start of the week, i.e. later on Mondays and Tuesdays, and earlier towards the end of the week, i.e. earlier on Thursdays and Fridays.

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Method All school buses arriving at our school bus stop had their arrival, boarding and departure times recorded in the period from 3:15PM to 3:50PM on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday afternoons over the two week period starting on 18.8.14 and ending on 29.8.14. Wednesday afternoons were excluded as school is dismissed 50 minutes earlier due to school sport, meaning some people catch public buses instead of the regular school buses. All school buses arriving at our school bus stop had their arrival, boarding and departure times recorded in the period from 3:15PM to 3:50PM on Monday, Tuesday, Thursday and Friday afternoons over the two week period starting on 18.8.14 and ending on 29.8.14. Wednesday afternoons were excluded as school is dismissed 50 minutes earlier due to school sport, meaning some people catch public buses instead of the regular school buses. The bus times were recorded on laptops, using a spreadsheet to easily input data and have it pre-formatted and tabulated. The bus times were recorded on laptops, using a spreadsheet to easily input data and have it pre-formatted and tabulated. These afternoon bus recording sessions were taken in shifts, with equal amounts of time on duty for each team member. These afternoon bus recording sessions were taken in shifts, with equal amounts of time on duty for each team member.

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Method After all the data was recorded, it was organised within a master spreadsheet, with the data being analysed and graphed. A bus log from one of the days can be seen on the right. After all the data was recorded, it was organised within a master spreadsheet, with the data being analysed and graphed. A bus log from one of the days can be seen on the right. From this statistical analysis, we could distinguish whether our hypothesis was true or not and any other patterns that arose. From this statistical analysis, we could distinguish whether our hypothesis was true or not and any other patterns that arose. These results, analysis and conclusion were finally written up in to a presentation. These results, analysis and conclusion were finally written up in to a presentation.

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Buses Arriving at School Bus Bay – 10x Speed

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Statistics by Day of Week

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Graphs of Average Loading Time by Day of Week and Early By Time by Day of Week

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Results The statistics show that the average boarding time was 4:04 min and 3:56 min for the first and second Fridays respectively, and the graph also reflects this. This contrasts greatly with all the other days, where the average boarding time never exceeded 3:00 min. The statistics show that the average boarding time was 4:04 min and 3:56 min for the first and second Fridays respectively, and the graph also reflects this. This contrasts greatly with all the other days, where the average boarding time never exceeded 3:00 min. The statistics also show that earlier in the week, on Mondays and Tuesdays, buses arrived later than later in the week, on Thursdays and Fridays. On average, buses arrived only 28 seconds early on Mondays and 1 minute and 19 seconds late on Tuesdays. This contrasts with Thursdays on Fridays, which on average were early by 1 minute and 28 seconds, and early by 54 seconds respectively. The statistics also show that earlier in the week, on Mondays and Tuesdays, buses arrived later than later in the week, on Thursdays and Fridays. On average, buses arrived only 28 seconds early on Mondays and 1 minute and 19 seconds late on Tuesdays. This contrasts with Thursdays on Fridays, which on average were early by 1 minute and 28 seconds, and early by 54 seconds respectively.

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Conclusion From the results shown on the previous slide, it appears that our hypothesis is most possibly correct, with a clear and discernible pattern in the statistics and accompanying graphs. From the results shown on the previous slide, it appears that our hypothesis is most possibly correct, with a clear and discernible pattern in the statistics and accompanying graphs. Therefore, we can say that buses have a very likely chance of taking longer to load on Fridays and arriving later towards the start of the week and earlier towards the end of the week. To get a definite answer, we would have to run our experiment for a longer timeframe and record the buses’ times over a month or more. Therefore, we can say that buses have a very likely chance of taking longer to load on Fridays and arriving later towards the start of the week and earlier towards the end of the week. To get a definite answer, we would have to run our experiment for a longer timeframe and record the buses’ times over a month or more.

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Possible Improvements To improve the reliability of this experiment, the accompanying statistics and graphs, and patterns found, the monitoring and recording time period could be widened to encompass a much longer timeframe, e.g. 1 month, 3 months, 6 months or even a year. To improve the reliability of this experiment, the accompanying statistics and graphs, and patterns found, the monitoring and recording time period could be widened to encompass a much longer timeframe, e.g. 1 month, 3 months, 6 months or even a year. Additional patterns could also be found with the extension of this experiment to include mornings or other bus stops. Additional patterns could also be found with the extension of this experiment to include mornings or other bus stops.

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Credits A huge thank-you to Mr Harris, the project’s supervising teacher – without him, this project would not have been possible A huge thank-you to Mr Harris, the project’s supervising teacher – without him, this project would not have been possible The background image for this presentation was sourced from the Wikimedia Commons, entitled "Wan Chai Pier Bus Terminal 2009" by WiNG - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons – available at http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jp g#mediaviewer/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jpg The background image for this presentation was sourced from the Wikimedia Commons, entitled "Wan Chai Pier Bus Terminal 2009" by WiNG - Own work. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons – available at http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jp g#mediaviewer/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jpg http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jp g#mediaviewer/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jpg http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jp g#mediaviewer/File:Wan_Chai_Pier_Bus_Terminal_2009.jpg

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