1. FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 A Review for Experienced Users Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference Tom Filiaggi May 2010 FFMPA F LASH F LOOD M ONITORING AND P REDICTION - A DVANCED http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp

2. Topics to be covered... Very Basic Overview Highlights/Strengths Other things you may not know about FFMP Possible Future Enhancements (AWIPS2+) Responsible Individuals http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

3. FFMPA Very Basic Overview Ingests precipitation data and guidance data in various forms ( server-side ): –Precip: QPE, QPF –Guidance: Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ?? –Gridded: Radar polar, lat/lon, HRAP (& derivative) Transforms the data into the ‘small hydrologic basin’ world, based on small basin GIS shapefiles ( server-side ) Displays and monitors according to what configuration the user has defined. This allows for: –Comparison of accumulation to guidance –Customizable time frame –Auto-aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

4. FFMPA Very Basic Overview: Display http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

5. FFMPA Highlights/Strengths Variable, User-configured Data Source usage –QPE, QPF, Guidance (Flash Flood, Debris Flow, ++??) –Grids: Radar polar, lat/lon (& derivative), HRAP (& derivative) –Individual radars as well as full grid, multi-sourced analyses: HPE/HPN, Q2/NMQ On-the-fly Service Backup implementation –Independent from D2D or workstation Service backup status Drill down to single basin trend detail, when needed Virtual Gage Basins (VGB): QPE Source QC http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

6. Highlights/Strengths: Split Window http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 –Combine QPE with QPF, then compare to guidance –Brings much more of a predictive quality to FFMP

7. Highlights/Strengths: Automated Monitoring Customizable –Color-coded –Data Sources –Type choice Accum Ratio Diff Filterable –CWA (Service Backup) Time selection –Rate –¼-hour increments –Max based on purge Split Window –Combine QPE & QPF then compare to Guidance Value added –Data gap notice –Multiple Monitor conditions http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

8. Highlights/Strengths: Forced Guidance Applies user-defined FFG –Strict override –Modification(+-) For user-defined ‘Guidance’ data sources For a user-defined period of time For a user-defined area –County / –Basin / –Entire domain That is retrievable Great for: –Urban –Fire scars http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

9. Highlights/Strengths: RFC FFG Update Method Elements of Transition method: –Apply a lag, to eliminate double-counting of precipitation in FFMPA analyses. This lag will be equal to the Time Frame of the Guidance. (ie: 3-hr Guidance = 3-hr lag). –Apply an hourly interpolation scheme that manages precipitation in a way that greatly enhances the Guidance values for the transition period and avoids increased under-warn situations that could exist with a lag-only approach. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

10. FFMPA Highlights/Strengths Auto-aggregation –Phenomenon scale variability Areal Temporal flash flood vs. river flood http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

11. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

12. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

13. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

14. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

15. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

16. Highlights/Strengths: Auto-Aggregation http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

17. Specific Time Frame Trends –Can still view All-times –QPF interpretation (ie: Split Window) may be easier for specific time frames http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Things you may not know about FFMPA

18. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Basin Trace Upstream Downstream Up & Down D2D hatch method not easy to see with full color image

19. Ingest Monitor –Notes health of data ingest, of interest to FFMPA –User-defined determination of “too old” –HTML Interface –Special rules for RADAR DHR http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010 Things you may not know about FFMPA

20. FFMPA Possible Future Enhancements Enhance Auto-Aggregates: –Provide trends, maps, better names Value-added Trends –Precip. Frequency: eg: 100-yr mark for 3-hr time frame –Moving sub-total: eg: moving 3hr accumulation in 24-hr trend Basin Trend accumulation plots as steps, not lines –At least for VGB plots Add more recognized and usable grid projections –Would allow for the use of potentially more Data Sources http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

21. FFMPA Possible Future Enhancements Enhance Basin Table: –Provide area and full upstream area –Provide full upstream precipitation accumulations Provide variable and targeted Z/R management for WSR88D Data Sources Enhance Forced FFG definitions: –Geo-tool: paint shapes, draw polygons, etc Usage at RFCs –Currently, AWIPS I limitations exist which basically prohibit FFMP’s use at RFCs http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010

22. Main Developers –Tom Filiaggi- MDL: Lead Tom.Filiaggi@noaa.gov –Lingyan Xin - MDL Lingyan.Xin@noaa.gov FFMPA Responsible Individuals http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/ffmp FFMP Advanced: Eastern Region Flash Flood Conference, May 2010