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Secret Defense Budget Game Questions, Lessons, and Ideas Bob Botsch

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Questions Did you like the definition of winning? Were all wins equal? Were wars too easy for both winners and losers? Could incompetence cause wars? Were all losses equal? What about ties? Weren’t they really wins? What does the game suggest about spying? Can spying serve both sides?

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Important ideas illustrated in the Game Importance of intelligence—reduces waste and uncertainty Importance of verification— negotiated spying The morality of lying by leaders—the “noble lie” versus the selfish lie. “ A leader my be morally obligated to risk her own soul.” (?)

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Analysis usnig Game Theory Game theory—rational decision strategies in interactions with others, both cooperative and conflictual Payoff matrix—mathematical representation of all outcomes for all possible choices Minimax strategy--generally the optimal strategy, minimizes the maximum loss

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Bargaining theory Bargaining theory is about strategies of conflict resolution through negotiation Has identified many important variables and relationships

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Variables in Bargaining Theory Forms of interaction that are available: time and scope Location of bargaining: face-to –face or not conditions of bargaining Level of uncertainty: Hyp: as uncertainty goes up, spending and likelihood of war goes up Level of stress—low in this game Interpersonal factors: aggressiveness, competitiveness, tendency to trust, importance of first impressins

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