1. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10 th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research

2. Challenge: Adaptation of cities and infrastructure to global change Socio-economic change –Growing global population –Changing demography –Socio-economic trends –Ownership and governance Urbanization –Concentrates infrastructure –Implications for external ‘support’ infrastructure Environmental pressures –Climate change –Broader sustainability tradeoffs –Relationship with land use Deterioration and replacement

3. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Some complicities and tradeoffs ResponsePotential benefitPotential negative impact Air conditioning Reduce heat stressIncrease energy needs and emissions Densification of cities Reduce public transport emissions Increase urban heat island intensity and exposure to grater noise pollution Desalination plants Secure water supplyIncrease greenhouse gas emissions Irrigation Supplying water for foodSalinisation of soil, degradation of wetlands, Biofuels for transport and energy Reduce GHG emissions Encourage deforestation; replace food crops raising food prices; can increase local air quality pollutants such as NO x Catalytic convertors Improve air quality Large scale mining and international resource movements Cavity wall insulation Reduce GHG emissionsIncrease damages from a flood event Raise flood defence Reduce flood frequencyEncourage more development (positive feedbacks) Pesticides Control vector borne disease Impact on human health, increased insect resistance Conservation areas Preserve biodiversity and ecosystemsLoss of community livelihoods Insurance/disaster relief Spread the risk from high-impact eventsReduce longer term incentive to adapt Traffic bypasses or radial routes Displaces traffic from city centre, improving air quality and reducing noise Can increase congestion and journey times (consequently overall greenhouse gas emissions) Vehicle user charging Discourage vehicle use to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Lead to greater social inequality Adapted from: Dawson (2011) Potential pitfalls on the pathway to sustainable cities…and how to avoid them, Carbon Management, Vol 2(2)

4. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Testing of policy options Working with key London stakeholders Climate impacts and adaptation Analyse risks of Flooding Drought Urban heat Test adaptation options Greenhouse gas emissions Multi-sectoral emissions accounting Detailed sub-modules for transport (personal and freight) Analysis of city-scale energy policies Land use Transport Model Employment Multi-modal transport Developed land cover Population Planning constraints and attractors Regional economy Dynamic resource interactions between sectors Specialist energy sector module Socio-economic scenarios City-scale climate scenarios Temperature Precipitation Sea level rise Storm surge

5. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Climate vs. Socio-economic change: Flood risk Baseline 2100Eastern axis 2100 2005 Centralisation 2100 Sub-urbanisation 2100

6. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Socio-economic vs. Climate change Flood risk for different land use change

7. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Socio-economic vs. Climate change Attribution of flood risk

8. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change

9. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research - 34% (annually incremented) by 2100 (mid-point of sustainable homes code) +300,000 Ml from 2020 +300 Ml/day from 2020 - 40% (annually incremented) by 2100 Drought risk: Climate vs. Socio-economic change

10. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research 00.250.50.7511.25 Carbon Dioxide (Mt/year) Energy consumption Drought risk: Potential mitigation tradeoff

11. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Average current heat emissions Land use: Adaptation vs. Mitigation

12. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Land use pressures

13. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Tough decisions

14. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Transformation of urban systems to be climate sensitive will require Motivation and leadership Much improved understanding of the mechanisms of interaction in urban function, via: –Land use –Transport –Resource flows (energy, water, nutrients) –Building form and function –Urban climate –Information networks Recognition of the time scales of change and the legacy of past decisions (planning, infrastructure, buildings) Develop collective understanding of urban function and collaborative platforms for exploration of transition strategies

15. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research http://www.ncl.ac.uk/ceser/researchprogramme/outputs/ richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk “We have come to recognise how integrated modelling of the type delivered by the Tyndall Centre Cities programme can help to bring different stakeholders together to develop common understanding of processes and consequences of long term change. That collective understanding is essential if we are to manage change rather than become its victims.” Alex Nickson, Strategy manager: climate change adaptation and water, Greater London Authority Can IA information improve the urban experience?

16. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Challenges for using IA information to improve the urban experience?  How far is far enough in tracking down consistency, interactions and feedbacks?  How should we estimate and communicate uncertainties?  Can we transfer IA insights and methods to other cities worldwide?  How can IA information flows be best exploited by organisations and individuals?  How can we build a global coalition of researchers and practitioners equipped to address these problems?

17. Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research Integrated Assessment modelling to understand tradeoffs in urban planning and infrastructure decisions Urban Systems Collaborative, Imperial College, London, 10 th September 2013 With thanks to: Jim Hall (Oxford University) Stuart Barr, Ali Ford, Claire Walsh (Newcastle University) Mark McCarthy (Met Office) Mike Batty (UCL) richard.dawson@newcastle.ac.uk Centre for Earth Systems Engineering Research