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UCL Energy Institute IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER AVAILABILITY OF UNCONVENTIONAL GAS ON CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM UNDER CLIMATE CONSTRAINT SCENARIOS. Dr Gabrial Anandarajah.

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Presentation on theme: "UCL Energy Institute IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER AVAILABILITY OF UNCONVENTIONAL GAS ON CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM UNDER CLIMATE CONSTRAINT SCENARIOS. Dr Gabrial Anandarajah."— Presentation transcript:

1 UCL Energy Institute IMPLICATIONS OF WIDER AVAILABILITY OF UNCONVENTIONAL GAS ON CHINA ENERGY SYSTEM UNDER CLIMATE CONSTRAINT SCENARIOS. Dr Gabrial Anandarajah UCL Energy Institute, University College London g.anandarajah@ucl.ac.uk www.ucl.ac.uk/energy

2 Content Introduction TIAM-UCL Global Energy System Model Scenario definitions Results Conclusions

3 Introduction This study develops scenarios under two different state of the world to analyze implications of unconventional gas on China energy system –With wider availability of unconventional gas. –With limited availability of unconventional A multi-region global energy system model (TIAM-UCL) has been used to develop the scenarios

4 16 Region TIAM-UCL Global Model: Overview TMES Integrated Assessment Model (TIAM) Dynamic partial equilibrium model approach with objective function minimising global welfare costs (consumer surplus + producer surplus) Annualised capital costs, O&M costs, fuel costs, taxes/subsidies, salvage values Technologically detailed bottom-up whole energy system model 16 regions, including explicit China region Flexible time horizon through to 2100 Multi-emissions, plus reduced-form climate module

5 Reference energy system – Example Domestic Demands Lighting Space Heat Cooking End-use Devices Elec Gas Coal Oil Conversion and Process technology options Coal Nuclear Gas Renew. Primary Supply

6 INDUSTRY TRANSPORT Primary Sources Production/Extraction Treatment/ Transport Energy Conversion Technologies Fuels and Energy Carriers Distribution CO 2, Pollutants and Waste Treatment NUCLEAR D-lithium magnetic inertial LWR III HTGR III LWR III+ HTGR IV FBR IV run of river mini hydro pumping onshore offshore hydro wind GTCC dam wave plant ethanol reforming hydroth. liquef. tidal PFBCPCSTSCSTAFBCIGFC UCST syngas synfuels COAL coal fischer tropsch DME product. ethanol prod. geo wave otec solar extract. IGCC H2O thermolysis photolysis H2 bioprod. thermolysis RENEWABLES gasification Energy End Use CAR dme+20%eff 2 dst+10-20%eff 3 elc e95 eth dme fc gas+10-20%eff 3 hH2fc MeH2 stor hH2fc gas stor hH2 ICE liq stor H2/gsl/dsl/hybr 3 lpg/nga 2 3w dst/eth/gas 3 m.cycle eth/gas 2 AIRCRAFT gas/H2/ker 10km 3 ker 11km int. ker/H2 10km 3 int. ker 11km TRAIN freight dst/elc 2 passeng dst/elc 2 SHIP dst/gas/eth 3 int. dst/fc//hfo 3 BUS dst/gas/eth/met 4 elc/H2fc/lpg/nga 4 hybr dst/nga/H2 3 mini dst/gas/eth 3 mini lpg/nga 3 TRUCK dme/dst/gas/eth 4 lpg/met/nga 3 mid dst/gas/eth 3 mid lpg/nga/H2 3 mid H2fc gas stor mid dst hybrid SUV +LCV dme+20%eff 2 dst+10-20%eff 3 e95 eth dme fc gas+10-20%eff 3 H2fc MeH2 stor H2fc gas stor H2 comb liq stor H2/dsl/gsl hybr 3 nga/lpg 2 BLAST FURNACE Blast furnace 2 Bl furn. coal CCS 2 Basic O2 furnace Bl. furn slag FURNACES Elc arc dri Elc arc scrap Dri midrex H2 Dri midrex gas CCS2 Ppen hearth COKE OVENS Beehive Dry quenching Conventional Non-recov BIO IND PROCESS Bagasse Ind waste prod Municipal biom Biom to biofuels Fuelwood Wastes&residues Straw Forest biom recov Plantation 2 Cellul biomass Process heat 6 Other final use 8 PROCESS HEAT 6 ELECTROLYSIS 4 Fuel decarbon 2 Fluegas sep 3 CO2 transp 2 Fluegas treatm 6 On/off EOR/EGR On/offs aquifer CO2 storage Waste treatm 3 Waste treatm 8 Waste recycl 5 Waste disp 3 CTL fischer tropsch CHP DGen HYDROGEN DISTRIBUTION STORAGE electrolysis 4 ENERGY STORAGE Waste treatm heat Partic. control 3 DeNOx 4 DeSOx 3 CO2 capture HEAT DISTRIBUTION NETWORK ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION GRID electricity ALUMINIUM Hall-Heroult cell Inert anode cell Soderberg cell Secondary Al Alumina AMMONIA Coal/oil pox CCS4 Nga reform CCS2 CEMENT Blast furnace Fly ash prod Portl dry kiln CCS2 Portl wet kiln Portl clink, v kiln Portl preparation Process heat kiln 6 CHEMICAL Eth to ethyl dehydr Dme to olefins Ethane cracker Naft/hfo/lpg crack 3 Meth. to olefins Propyl to ethyl CHLORINE Diaphr. cell Membrane cell Hg cell IRON&STEEL Cold rol steel Hot roll steel Steel cont cast Steel ingot cast Pelletiz. iron ore Sinter. iron ore IND MACH. DRIVE Non-Fe met 5 Chem ind 7 Food&beverage 7 Textile 7 Machinery 5 Non met mineral 5 Pulp&paper 5 Iron&steel 5 Other energy use Electrification PULP Chem cont digest Chem batch digest Mechan prod Other prod Chem pulp&paper Waste paper to pulp PAPER Conv prod Cond belt dry Impulse drying Steam boiler 4 IND BOILERS 5/100MW 6 BOILER SAVING Insulation 7 Steam trap 7 Excess air reduc 7 Econ preheating 7 Return condens. 7 Blowdown 7 Vap recompr. 7 Vent condenser 7 Coal loss reduc 7 RESID. COMMERCIAL COOLING Chiller 4 Heat pump 7 Central 4 Room 2 Solar absorpt. Cooking 11 HEATING Boiler 7 Burner 4 Heat pump 3 Heat exchang 2 Insulation 4 Stove 3 Heater 5 Solar heater WATER HEATING Water heater 11 Solar water heater Heat pump 2 LIGHTING Fluo compact Fluorescent Halogen Incandescent Ker lamp Light diode ELC APPLIANCES Copy print fax 5 PCs server 5 Refrigerator 5 Fans 5 Cloth driers 5 Cloth washer 6 Dish washer 6 Freezer 5 Home entert 5 Home office 5 Elc equipment 5 RESID CHP 11 INTERSECTORAL ELC DEVICES Motors Transformers Generators Alternators Inverters Converters Switchs TH. DEVICES Boilers Burners Heaters Heat exchanger Driers Steam generators Heat pumps Ovens Furnaces Solar panels FLUID DEVICES Pumps Compressors Ventilations Gas turbines Steam turbines Hydro turbines Reversible turbines COMB ENGINES Gasol engines Diesel engines Gas engines Turbo engines Stirling engines STORAGE DEVICES Batteries light ends gas naphtha mid dist VDR fuel gas coke H2H2 jet fuel diesel heavy gas-oil visbreakerer hydrocracker reformer alkylation fuel oil deasphalter lube oil olefins hydrotreater H2H2 debutanizer vac. distillation del. cocker cat. cracker dewaxer del. cocker hydrotreater Refinery tert. prod. EOR production prim. production sec. production e. heavy oil oil/tar sand oil shale conventional on/offshore oil & NGL OIL lpg gasoline blender asphalt solar th. PV PV th. film PV conc. CSP dish CSP tower CSP throug manure msw On/off depl.field ECBM Recycle/use Mineralisat. NAT GAS DISTRIBUTION PIPELINE coalbed gas stranded gas natural gas gas hydrates production NATURAL GAS GTCC A-GTCC GTL fischer tropsch methanol production CHP DG reforming nat gas methanol production natural gas EGR distillation current av. refinery shipping pipeline adv. best practice refinery obsolete av. refinery brown coal lignite hard coalextraction shipping rail open mining extraction peat extraction CHP FUEL DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS FC 2 liquefact. pipeline LNG ship Rigasific. thorium enrichment. extraction uranium transport manufacturing LWR IV HWR II LWR II enrichment. extraction transport manufacturing CH4 reforming hydrogen industry w. sugar-starch product. ligno-cellul. wet biom sol. biom forest/agr w. collect. product. oil extract. ferment. gasific. anaer. dig pyrolysis biogas ferment. hydrol. bioethanol distillat. bio-oil esterif. oil crops direct comb. coal cofiring methanol prod. biodiesel st turb steam turb

7 TIAM Model Reg. 1 Reg. 16 Reg.... Reg. 2 Reg..... Resource1 Resource 2 Resource 3 Module: Market for emission trading Module: New Technologies OPEC Climate Module Endogenous technology learning Multi-region model Each region has its own energy system TIAM Model

8 Resource supply and Upstream Sector For each region, split into three subsectors: –Mining (characterising basic resources) –Primary energy production (extraction and basic processing) –Secondary transformation (coke production, oil refining) Conventional and unconventional oil and gas resources resources are modelled Biomass resources are modelled Key to this sector is the trade module covering: –Oil crude –Oil products – DST, GSL, HFO, NAP –Natural gas / LNG –Coal –Uranium –Biomass (energy crops and solid biomass)

9 Global supply cost curves for all natural gas by category of gas and region in 2005

10 Scenarios Two Reference Scenarios –with low gas availability (LG-REF): no climate policy is applied and the availability of unconventional gases is limited; –with high gas availability (HG-REF): no climate policy is applied. Unconventional gas availability is increased and production costs of some gas types slightly reduced with an exogenous learning rate; Two respective Low Carbon Scenarios: a global cumulative GHG emission constraint is applied in order to restrict the global temperature increase to 2 o C –with low gas availability (LG-LCS): –with high has availability (HG-LCS):

11 Primary energy consumption in China LG-LCSHG-LCS Share of coal decreases from 65% in 2005: –to 44% in LG-LCS in 2050 –to 16% in HG-LCS in 2050 Share of gas increases from 2% in 2005 –to 12% in LG-LCS in 2050 –to 34% in HG-LCS in 2050 Wider availability of unconventional gas less has less impact on biomass, nuclear, wind and solar primary energy consumptions. Primary energy in HG-LCS is less compared to LG-LCS (why?)

12 Electricity generation mix LG Scenario –More generation Low carbon electricity decarbonizes end-use sectors –Less bio-CCS Biomass directly used in industry sector for heating HG Scenario –Less generation Gas partly decarbonizes end-use sectors (industry) –More bio-CCS

13 Sectoral emissions Net emissions is higher in LG-LCS –Wider availability of unconventional gas slightly increases China’s GHG mitigation potential CCS captures more CO 2 emissions in LG-LCS –CCS is relatively more important in LG-LCS LG-LCSHG-LCS

14 Conclusions Wider availability of unconventional gas: –reduces coal use especially in the power sector –reduces total electricity generations –reduces primary energy use as gas is directly used in end-use sectors –Increases bio-CCS generations –reduces CCS capacity requirements –slightly increases China’s GHG mitigation potential

15 Thank You g.anandarajah@ucl.ac.uk


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